New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft is comfortable letting quarterback Tom Brady test free agency in 2020, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. So in all likelihood, that’s exactly what Brady will do. When the tampering period opens on March 16, the quarterback will begin discussions with teams, who are likely to present pitches (much like NBA teams have done for major free agent stars). The market for Brady, a six-time Super Bowl champion, will probably be robust.
The Patriots, meanwhile, will surely monitor Brady’s movements and prospects in hopes of retaining him. But Bill Belichick will likely also prepare New England’s roster for the quarterback’s potential departure. Here are five thoughts on how this process is shaping up, now that Brady’s foray into free agency feels imminent.
1. The chances of the Patriots retaining Tom Brady have fallen
Because Brady seems poised to test free agency, the Patriots will be short $7.5 million. Brady’s previous contract goes void when the new league year begins, which means his signing bonus (already paid in full) is no longer pro-rated against the cap. So instead of hitting the cap at $7.5 million in 2020 and the same in 2021, that money consolidates into 2020 as a $15 million cap hit. That’s fewer dollars for New England to lure Brady. And if Brady uses free agency to leverage for more money, that could be a problem for the Patriots, who have expiring contracts with safety Devin McCourty, guard Joe Thuney and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, among others.
Even if Brady doesn’t demand a big contract, Bill Belichick will have a harder time supplying the supporting cast, which is reportedly important to the quarterback.
2. For the first time in 20 years, the Patriots are truly a QB-needy team
Brady will always be a Patriots quarterback. But in 2020, he may not be playing for New England. You can bet Belichick is preparing for that possibility. It’s a new process. Of course, the Patriots coach has always prepared for Brady’s age or health inhibiting him. Belichick has done his best to keep a successor in the wings. Strangely, the Patriots find themselves without an NFL-ready quarterback. Jarrett Stidham may be ready in time for the 2020 NFL season, but the Patriots will likely want to get someone else in the mix.
3. Bill Belichick will have every contingency plan ready
Not only will Brady’s free agency make for a wild story, but Belichick’s simultaneous pursuits of other quarterbacks (in the draft, in free agency and through trades) will be fascinating, too.
The Patriots coach will likely talk to the Bengals about Andy Dalton and to the Panthers about Cam Newton. Heck, Belichick could talk to the Cowboys about Dak Prescott, the Bears about Mitchell Trubisky and the Raiders about Derek Carr. Belichick has shown an affinity for Ryan Tannehill — although he has been complimentary of every quarterback the Patriots have faced over the last decade. The draft boasts a number of options for Belichick, whether he wants to draft a quarterback in the first round or the seventh. And last but not least, the Patriots have Stidham and Cody Kessler on contract for 2020. There’s no ruling them out to start.
Surely, Belichick will walk down every possible avenue for improvement.
4. How badly do these two want to keep working together?
The Patriots are comfortable letting Brady test free agency, where either the money or skill players (or both) could be better elsewhere. Surely, the coaching won’t be better. You can’t beat Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. So if the Patriots make an effort to add a pass-catcher but they can’t pay Brady a competitive salary, he’s going to have to want to keep playing for New England. So far, we haven’t heard him say that. Similarly, Belichick hasn’t said what he wants: 1) to win another Super Bowl with Brady, or 2) to win another Super Bowl without Brady.
5. Tom Brady’s decision will probably come down to money (elsewhere) or familiarity and stability (in New England)
I’ve been spelling this out throughout the other thoughts. But the Patriots are extremely unlikely to provide Brady with the best offer in terms of finances and even roster talent. So it comes down to what Brady wants. Reports can indicate he wants money — and other reports can indicate he wants a supporting cast. The quarterback’s decision will indicate what’s true. We won’t know truly what Brady’s priorities were until we see the contract he signs this offseason.
