New Orleans Saints fans want Mark Ingram to remain with the team. Mark Ingram himself has said he hopes to finish his career with New Orleans. The Saints themselves would, in all likelihood, prefer to keep their backfield together with Ingram and Alvin Kamara splitting reps. He shouldn’t command a huge salary and is close to setting a new Saints record for rushing yards should he return. But other teams in need of running back help could thwart everyone’s plans.
One bit of analytics we’ll be considering is a simple number: vacated carries, also called unclaimed handoffs. This is nothing complex, just the percentage of rushing attempts teams lose from the year before due to players leaving the roster. For example, if the Saints lose Ingram, then 29-percent of last year’s rushing attempts need to be claimed by whoever is on the roster next year (that number is actually over 39-percent, with Ingram and some other players slated to hit free agency). Here’s a link to how all 32 NFL teams stack up against each other in unclaimed handoffs, passing targets, and combined touches.
We’ll also be noting the current estimates for 2019 salary cap space for each team, per the latest reporting from Over The Cap. Their estimates use a $190 million salary cap estimate, since the NFL has not yet announced an official figure. For reference, the Saints have just $11.2 million in space on the books right now, but that number will change.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
- Vacated carries: 66.5 percent
- Projected cap space: $27.8 million
Kareem Hunt forced Kansas City to cut him loose after beating a woman during the offseason, though the team did not find out the details until late in November. They never really replaced him, though Damien Williams had some good moments down the stretch. It’s doubtful they rely on him alone to shoulder the load, and that kind of timeshare is a situation Ingram is familiar with. He’d be a good fit in Andy Reid’s pass-happy attack, providing help for Patrick Mahomes on third down in blitz pickups and running the occasional route. The Chiefs have an underrated offensive line and it’s easy to picture Ingram running hard behind them.
2. Oakland Raiders
- Vacated carries: 73.5 percent
- Projected cap space: $71.2 million
The Raiders’ leading runner in 2018 was Doug Martin, who picked up 28-percent of his rushing yards in the last two weeks. He’s also a free agent. Marshawn Lynch’s career has nearly run its course, and the Raiders don’t have many other options to pair with Derek Carr in the backfield. Ingram would make sense as a versatile running back with plenty of experience, chipping in as a pass-catcher (Martin and Lynch combined for 44 targets) while Jalen Richard plays the part of Alvin Kamara (Richard caught 68 of 81 targets for over 600 yards). He would have ample opportunities to contribute with Oakland, and they have the resources to pay him whatever he wants.
3. Washington
- Vacated carries: 75.5 percent
- Projected cap space: $20.1 million
NFL coaches often sign players who have had success against them in the past. Ingram has averaged 88 yards per game in three appearances against Jay Gruden’s teams in Washington at a blistering clip of 8.3 yards per attempt. D.C. hopes it can lean on second-year stud Derrius Guice as he works back from injury, but having an ironman like Ingram around to keep too much pressure on Guice makes sense. That said, Washington is strapped for salary cap space, so they shouldn’t be outbidding anyone for Ingram’s services. All they can really offer him is an opportunity.
4. Detroit Lions
- Vacated carries: 55.4 percent
- Projected cap space: $31.6 million
Detroit is in a similar spot to Washington. They entered the 2018 season hoping to focus their running game around a rookie, Kerryon Johnson, but he ended the year on injured reserve. The good news is his knee injury wasn’t considered as serious as Guice’s was, so he should return to action without much rust. But pursuing Ingram makes sense if they want to practice caution in easing Johnson back to action. Unlike passing-down specialist Theo Reddick or limited runner LeGarrette Blount, Ingram can function well in all phases and threaten defenses in a variety of ways. Still, it seems unlikely Detroit would go after Ingram strongly considering the options they have in the building already.
5. Atlanta Falcons
- Vacated carries: 52.7 percent
- Projected cap space: $22.3 million
Ugh, this would hurt. As highly-regarded as Ingram has become by fans in his long, sometimes-frustrating career, it would be awful to see him twice a year in dirty bird colors. There’s little chance his reputation would endure among fans if he ended up leaving for the Saints’ biggest rivals. Atlanta is likely losing their leading rusher in Tevin Coleman, and Ito Smith, the rookie they drafted to replace him, saw his season cut short by landing on injured reserve (noticing a theme?). Ingram is a player Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn knows well, and as sick as it feels to type this, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Falcons make him an offer once free agency opens up in March. Let’s all collectively hope it doesn’t come to that.
