WASHINGTON _ Got whiplash yet? The Democratic presidential race abruptly compressed Tuesday from a muddled mess of multiple candidates to a classic contest between an old guard liberal and a lefty insurgent.
Whether former Vice President Joe Biden's surge was timely enough and potent enough to keep rival Bernie Sanders from gaining an insurmountable lead toward the nomination will be much clearer when California finishes counting its votes. And that could take awhile. But Biden was well on his way as first results came in and he notched decisive victories in two big Southern states: North Carolina and Virginia.
Those newcomer pragmatists who once hoped to go the distance? They are background noise. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke all dropped out of the race and are urging Democrats to back Biden.
So what are the top takeaways from Super Tuesday, the biggest day on the Democrats' primary calendar?
_ THE ESTABLISHMENT STRIKES BACK
Biden looked like a goner for much of February. He got creamed in Iowa, was creamed again in New Hampshire, and hobbled out of Nevada a distant second. His vast lead in the polls at the start of the race seemingly had vanished. He looked tired at events, overwhelmed on the debate stage, and meandering in the field.
Then came his sweeping victory Saturday in South Carolina. And on Tuesday he kept plowing through the south thanks to overwhelming support from African American voters.
The establishment has fallen into line. Big donors who had given up hope are rushing for their checkbooks. Democratic heavyweights, like former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, got off the sidelines heading into Tuesday and endorsed.
The early results from the 14 Super Tuesday states show the establishment still counts. Biden isn't yet certain to stop Sanders from gaining a majority of delegates, but he's on that path. Early results show Biden's coalition in the South is holding and his strength with African American voters and moderates in the suburbs is solid. But he still has a lot of catching up to do.
Will donors dig deep enough to help Biden compete with Sanders' huge war chest? Will the organizational chaos in the Biden campaign ease now that the establishment cavalry is invested in boosting him toward the nomination? Will Biden finally stick to a coherent message on the campaign trail and stop wandering into gaffes and goofy non sequiturs?
_ BERNIE KEEPS BOOMING
Sure, it was better for the Sanders campaign when the opposition was splintered and aimless. It is now him against a mostly united establishment. But betting against his movement is a big risk. It is still strong. Stronger than Biden's, arguably.
The candidate's challenges in places like North Carolina and Virginia on Tuesday reflect those that hurt him in 2016, when much of the South was just not buying what Sanders was selling. He has had particular difficulty appealing to African American voters in the Sunbelt.
But he also entered Super Tuesday poised to clean up in California, the largest state, thanks in large part to the inroads with Latino voters, who also propelled his win last month in Nevada.
Sanders' prospects also looked good in Texas, the second largest state voting Tuesday. Even if he does not win Texas outright, he could vacuum up many delegates. Again, the appeal of Sanders to Latinos is playing big. Those successes strengthen the Sanders argument that he is best equipped to beat President Donald Trump. A robust Latino turnout is crucial to that effort.
The potency of the Sanders movement wasn't just evident in Texas and the West. He spent election eve rallying in Minnesota, where Klobuchar chose to exit race Monday rather than face the prospect of losing to Sanders in her home state.
His dominance over the party's growing progressive wing also was reflected in an anticipated strong showing in Massachusetts, where Sanders threatened to edge out another home-state senator, Elizabeth Warren.
With small donors pouring millions of dollars into the Sanders campaign, the self-declared Democratic socialist has built a formidable machine, one positioned to barrel over any number of obstacles _ possibly including the Democratic Party establishment.
_ HALF A BILLION DOLLARS FOR ... WHAT?
The poor billionaires. They have been beat up and battered throughout this contest. Usually by the left. But former New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is finding the mainstream isn't thrilled to have him around either.
Bloomberg has rapidly fallen from establishment savior to a spoiler, under growing pressure from party stalwarts to quit the race. His entire case for running was built around Biden's weakness, not his comeback. Bloomberg spent more than half a billion dollars since late November to make the case that he was the only moderate candidate equipped to best Bernie Sanders in the fight for the nomination.
But the case grew weak once America saw not just the ads, but the man behind them. He did not impress. Bloomberg face-planted in his first televised debate with other candidates. The second was less of a disaster, but still not reassuring to voters seeking someone who could go toe-to-toe with Trump. Even Bloomberg knew it. He began running ads arguing that America needs a leader, not a debater.
No one can argue Bloomberg, a quintessential New Yorker, doesn't have chutzpah. He urged other centrists to get out of the race before he had appeared on a single ballot so they could clear a path for him. Now he is under pressure to clear a path for Biden.
Both men are in their late 70s, have made voters cringe while on stage, and often seem out of step with this generation's electorate. But Biden came into Super Tuesday with more delegates than any other candidate. Bloomberg stepped into the big day with none _ he opted not to be on the ballot in the early states.
A month ago, with centrists splintering the vote and no clear counterweight to Sanders emerging, the billionaire's timing looked impeccable. But with Biden ascendant and the establishment rallying around the former vice president, Bloomberg is looking more like a nuisance.
_ WARREN WON'T GIVE UP THE WAR
This race is looking increasingly hopeless for Warren. The left has largely coalesced around Sanders. Moderates are spooked by her far-reaching plans. She has been under performing in state after state. A weak showing in Massachusetts would be yet more dismal optics for this candidate. There is no clear path to the nomination for Elizabeth Warren anymore.
Yet, she pushes on.
As long as this race appears destined for a contested convention, the Warren campaign sees a place in it for her. And so do some very wealthy backers who are plowing millions into a super PAC aimed at keeping the senator a visible presence in the field (not withstanding her pledge earlier in the campaign to disavow any such outside money during the primary.)
Warren supporters argue there is still a chance that she could rack up enough delegates to play an influential role at the party's convention in Milwaukee _ or even emerge as a compromise candidate.
Beyond that, they just like having her voice in the race. She is a fierce presence on the debate stage. Warren's broadsides in the debates arguably did so much damage to Bloomberg that even he couldn't spend enough to fully recover from them. She is an effective champion for equal rights, and makes a persuasive case for big economic change and expansive social programs to audiences that Sanders is not reaching.
As long as donors like what Warren is saying and continue to give, she will have the resources to stay in the field _ even if not anywhere near the front of it.
_ GLIDING TOWARD MELEE IN MILWAUKEE
The mainstream wing of the party is showing uncharacteristic discipline, consolidating behind Biden to keep Sanders in check. But the Vermonter may still exit Super Tuesday well positioned to arrive in Milwaukee with a plurality of delegates. Sanders says that should be enough to earn him the nomination.
Nobody else in the field seems to agree. That sets the table for a mess of a gathering in July, full of fighting on the floor, hundreds of party leaders designated "superdelegates" having outsize influence brokering the outcome, and a lot of bitterness.
Add to that the chaos the spreading coronavirus threatens to throw into the mix _ will delegates even gather in person in July? _ and you do not exactly have the recipe for a kumbaya moment the party is desperate to showcase heading into the November election.
