The Chicago Bears aren’t getting much love this offseason, which makes sense considering their disappointing 8-8 season in 2019. But there’s a difference between having reasonable expectations and having a really bad take.
After Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller deemed the Bears the second-worst team in the NFLthe Bears the second-worst team in the NFL, USA Today’s Nate Davis believes that Chicago will finish 3-13 in 2020Chicago will finish 3-13 in 2020.
Which, honestly, is ridiculous. Considering the abundance of issues the Bears had last season — one of the worst offenses in the league, terrible quarterback play, no run game, shoddy offensive line, no tight end production and injuries to some big-name defensive stars — they still managed to finish .500.
While the Bears aren’t likely to string together a 12-win season similar to 2018, it’s even more unlikely that they manage to win just three games.
Here are five reasons why the Bears will finish at or above .500 in 2020.
1. The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL
Lost in the disaster that was the Bears offense last season was the impressive showing by Chicago’s defense. While the 2018 unit was a dominant force — leading the NFL in points allowed, takeaways, rushing yards and touchdowns allowed — the 2019 defense was pretty good, as well. They allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and ranked in the top 10 for passing yards, rushing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. And they accomplished all of this without some key members of their defense for most of the season, including defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan.
While the Bears lost some key depth pieces to free agency this year, including linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski and defensive tackle Nick Williams, they did upgrade at pass rush with former All-Pro Robert Quinn and safety with Tashaun Gipson, as well as snagged what many deemed a top-three cornerback prospect in Jaylon Johnson in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. There’s a belief that this 2020 defense could even rival the 2018 defense, but they’ll have to prove it. Still, with the Bears returning a dominant defense, there’s no way that translates to just three wins.
2. Chicago upgraded on offense
The Bears haven’t completely overhauled their offense this offseason, but they did upgrade at two of the biggest areas of concern last season — quarterback and tight end. Chicago brought in former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to compete with — and potentially replace — Mitchell Trubisky, who regressed in his third season. The Bears also parted ways with Trey Burton — and Adam Shaheen doesn’t appear to be far behind — and brought in veteran Jimmy Graham and rookie Cole Kmet to jumpstart a tight end group that was among the worst in the league last season.
As far as Chicago’s supporting cast goes, running back remains the same, although the receivers room lost veteran Taylor Gabriel. But there’s an argument to be made that the Bears added speed to their offense, including the additions of receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie Darnell Mooney. The one concern remains with the Bears is offensive line, where they did bring in Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs to compete for the starting right guard job. But there seems to be more confidence in new offensive line coach Juan Castillo to work wonders with Chicago’s current cast of starting offensive linemen.
3. The Bears face an easier schedule than 2019
One of the arguments made by Davis is that the Bears have a “brutal” schedule in 2020. While they certainly face a difficult stretch in the final half of the season — playing seven playoff teams in their final nine games — the first half of their season is quite favorable. If you want to talk about reasonable expectations for a difficult schedule, look at last year’s team, who had the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL. And with all of their offensive decencies, they still managed to finish 8-8.
Heading into 2020, the Bears have the 13th-toughest schedule, which is the second-easiest in the NFC North behind the Packers. It’s not exactly easy, but it’s not “brutal” either. Not to mention, playoff teams from a season ago don’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Teams change with the seasons, just ask the Bears.
4. The offense can’t get much worse than last year
The Bears offense was about as bad as it could be in 2019. They ranked among the bottom five in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and yards per rush. Oh, and in case you forgot, this offense managed just nine yards in the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. Yep, it was that bad. In fact, there were only three offenses worse than Chicago’s unit — the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets and Washington Redskins, who all owned top-11 draft picks in this year’s NFL Draft.
Chicago has made fixing their abysmal offense a prime focus this offseason, upgrading at quarterback and tight end, as well as bringing in some new offensive minds to pair with Matt Nagy. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and offensive line coach Juan Castillo bring knowledge of the run game, which is an area that the Bears need to get better in 2020. Quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo and tight ends coach Clancy Barone will focus on two of the offense’s biggest areas of concern last season. While the Bears offense surely won’t be among the best in the league, they don’t need to be. They just need to be middle-of-the-pack with this dominant defense.
5. Key injured players return in full health
A key reason for the Bears’ success in 2018 was that they were able to avoid significant injuries to starters, but that was certainly a struggle in 2019. Chicago suffered an abundance of issues to starters last season, notably on defense with the loss of defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith. The Bears also lost their top three tight ends to injured reserve and right guard Kyle Long, who landed on season-ending injured reserve following Week 5.
Despite the injury struggles — on top of offensive woes — the Bears remained in the playoff hunt late in the 2019 season. While you can certainly never predict injuries in this game, the Bears will return their top-five defense with healthy Hicks, Trevathan and Smith in 2020. If the Bears can manage to stay relatively healthy in 2020, there’s no reason they shouldn’t top their eight-win season from a year ago.
