The NFL offseason has basically already begun for 30 teams. Only the Chiefs and Niners have something to focus on. That means every other organization is looking forward to the offseason. The planning has been begun. Teams are trying to sign their current players to extension and trying to figure out who they will target in free agency. The offseason is always crazy and has surprise signings, but this year will be different. It could be the craziest offseason in ages due to a confluence of factors.
Cap Space
Almost every team has cap space. The NFL average for 2020 is $43.6 million in space. That’s a lot of room — almost too much room — for the free agent market. There are 23 teams with more than $25 million worth of space. Every team out there — other than the Falcons, Steelers, and Vikings — will be able to spend somewhere.
That could be dangerous because teams with space don’t always invest wisely. They just throw cash around because they have room so why not do so. That could lead to some bad deals. Since these teams have all this cap room they may even give too much money to the following group.
The quarterback market
The biggest names also happen to be some of the oldest quarterbacks in the league. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers may all make it to the open market. Teams will have to decide how much they want to spend on a big name with declining skills. The Bears could sign Brees, but they will have to question whether his reduced arm strength can cut through the wind. The Raiders or Chargers could sign Brady, but they have to figure out if spending a ton of money on a big name to sell seats will translate to the field. Tampa Bay could reach out to Rivers, but he might not fit into Bruce Arians’ offense. The risk-reward may not work out.
Speaking of Tampa Bay, they need to figure out what they want to do with Jameis Winston. The Titans may want to run it back with Ryan Tannehill. Both teams may have to use a tag. Speaking of tags . . .
Franchise and Transition Tags
Teams can use both tags. So the Titans could franchise tag Ryan Tannehill and transition tag Derrick Henry. Yes, there’s a difference. Usually, teams can only use one, but not this year.
Back to the Titans. If they franchise Tannehill, they will require draft picks in return for his services and teams aren’t going to give that up. Henry could go out and find the best deal, but if the Titans transition tag him, Tennessee will be able to match any offer. The reason for the two tags is simple . . .
Final year in the CBA
This is the final year in the collective bargaining agreement so things get a bit wonky — like having the ability to use two tags.
The other thing to consider with the CBA is that no one knows what the next deal will look like. Players may think they’ll get more of the revenue pie, and in that case signing a long term deal won’t be great if more money comes to the market in the next CBA. Teams may also want to have shorter deals since there is uncertainty in the market. The problem is that teams may not want to sit out of the market because they have all this space and because . . .
The NFL is wide open
The Patriots dynasty is on its way down — especially if Tom Brady leaves New England. The NFC has new teams in the race — the Niners are the perfect example. The Ravens went 14-2 and didn’t make the conference championship. The Titans came out of nowhere to make the AFC title game. The Steelers are up in the air with Ben Roethlisberger coming back from injury. Who knows what’s going to happen with Drew Brees. There’s a ton of uncertainty.
That means teams will be willing to invest in a player if they think that player can put them over the hump. Windows don’t remain open for very long and a lot of teams think their windows are open.
