The 49ers put a 37-8 beatdown on the Green Bay Packers when the two teams squared off in Week 12 at Levi’s Stadium.
Any rundown of the matchup on paper indicates the 49ers are in a good spot to pull out another victory and head to Super Bowl LIV in Miami. However, football games aren’t played on paper, and a cakewalk game against a 13-3 squad in the NFC championship game is not likely.
While San Francisco should be confident going into Sunday’s game, there are a few reasons for concern:
Davante Adams is really good
While the 49ers limited Adams to 43 yards and a touchdown on seven catches in their Week 12 meeting, he’s still one of the preeminent receiving threat in the NFL. He missed four games due to a toe injury, but still managed to post 83 receptions for 997 yards and five touchdowns. San Francisco shutting him down again isn’t necessarily a given, especially since Green Bay will likely make it a point to get him the ball in space, and in favorable matchups in the 49ers’ secondary. One receiver having a big game isn’t a huge issue, but Adams has the skill set to warp the 49ers defense and open up the passing game with some of their peripheral weapons.
How the 49ers combat this concern:
San Francisco did a nice job covering Adams in Week 12, and they’ll likely follow a similar plan this time. The pass rush getting home and not letting Adams impact the game down the field will help. Emmanuel Moseley or Ahkello Witherspoon, whoever lines up opposite Richard Sherman, will need a strong showing when they’re matched up on Adams.
Aaron Jones is really good
Jones is another one of the Packers weapons they shut down in their last matchup. Part of it had to do with the game flow and the 49ers jumping out to a 23-0 halftime lead. The opportunities just weren’t there for Jones. However, he was limited even when he did get touches. Jones carried it 13 times for 38 yards and didn’t catch his only target in the passing game. This is a back that averaged 4.6 yards per carry and led the league with 16 rushing touchdowns and 19 total touchdowns. A bounce-back game for him against San Francisco makes the rest of Green Bay’s offense much more difficult to deal with.
How the 49ers combat this concern:
DJ Jones and the interior of the 49ers’ defensive line did a nice job bottling him up before he could get rolling downhill, but Jones is out now and it’s going to require good games from Earl Mitchell and Sheldon Day to clog up the middle of the line. If Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead continue dominating on the edges, it’s hard to imagine Jones finds consistent running room.
Aaron Rodgers is really good
Getting two bad games out of Rodgers in the same season is hard, and the 49ers held Rodgers to arguably his worst statistical outing of his career their last time facing each other. He threw for just 104 yards on 33 attempts. Rodgers is looking more comfortable in the Packers offense now though, and a closer game will allow the run game to be a bigger factor and not allow the 49ers defense to key on that passing attack. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said during the week that the Packers are never out of a game with Rodgers under center, and that’s why he’s a concern as long as he’s playing.
How the 49ers combat this concern:
It’s all about the pass rush. If the 49ers can move Rodgers off his spot and force him to improvise with a receiving corps largely made up of players he doesn’t have a great rapport with, they’ll force him into another sub-par game.
Jimmy Garoppolo interceptions
Perhaps the biggest Achilles heel for the 49ers offense on Sunday will be Garoppolo’s penchant for throwing the ball to the other team. This is not to say he’s liable to throw four interceptions, but his interception at the end of the first half against the Vikings with the 49ers leading 14-7 could’ve been a game-changer. Fortunately for the 49ers, the defense held Minnesota to three points. Holding the Packers out of the end zone after an interception or two won’t be as easy, and if this game is within even one touchdown, an interception could be the difference.
How the 49ers combat this concern:
The good news for Garoppolo and San Francisco is that Green Bay does not defend the middle of the field very well, which is where the quarterback does his best work. If the run game gets rolling and sucks the linebackers down on play action to leave the middle of the field open, Garoppolo shouldn’t have to worry about making a lot of throws into traffic.
Za’Darius Smith: Game wrecker
There aren’t a lot of arguments outside of Smith for the honor of best defender on the Packers. The fact he wasn’t an All-Pro or Pro Bowler despite racking up 13.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hits and dominating in just about every statistic related to quarterback pressures. He’s also Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded run defender. Smith is the type of player who can wreak havoc on everything the 49ers do offensively, and if he has a monster game, San Francisco will have a lot of trouble moving the football.
How the 49ers combat this concern:
They’ll have to put multiple bodies on Smith and ensure he’s not getting free runs at Garoppolo. Tight end George Kittle should get some time helping block him, and any slot receiver on that side should crash down and hit him too. The 49ers will have to get creative, but just making life difficult for Smith will nullify the Packers’ biggest defensive threat.
