Five bold, crazy, stupid, daring, wacky predictions about where all the free agent and top NFL quarterback prospects will end up playing.
5 (Potentially) Stupid NFL Draft, Free Agent Quarterback Predictions
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– The NFL teams that need another option
– Joe Burrow situation
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
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Considering college football just lost a boatload of all-time great quarterbacking talent from the 2019 season, and with a bigger boatload of all-time great NFL quarterbacks shopping around the free agent market, this is by far the most interesting off-season ever for the position at both levels.
For 2021, who’s going to be in a position to take Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields? Is there another Joe Burrow or Daniel Jones who’ll rise up from relative obscurity to become a franchise pick? That’s for another day, but that’s all a factor here considering the last two No. 1 overall picks – Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray – won the Heisman, and Burrow is almost a mortal lock to make it three in a row.
But here’s the problem with all of this for all of the NFL types – there are only 32 starting jobs.
It’s not like being a free agent wide receiver or linebacker, or a top college running back or defensive prospect, who can be taken by anyone and find playing time right away. At the highest level, a quarterback has to be the right fit for one of those few precious jobs, and just being a big-time talent isn’t always enough.
Just ask Josh Rosen.
The idea of drafting a Justin Herbert or bringing on a Phil Rivers might sound interesting, but there aren’t a lot of openings.
So with all of that in mind, here are five (potentially) stupid predictions on how this strange marriage of NFL Draft and the free agent period is all going to work out, starting with …
5. The old guy free agents
Of course it sounds amazing to somehow land Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Phil Rivers as your starting quarterback or the next year or three, but think about what’s involved here.
The dream is to get the Denver version of Peyton Manning. Maybe you get a rejuvenated legend looking for a last big run, and maybe he turns out to be that one missing piece.
But do that, and you’re mortgaging the future.
Pick up one of these legends, and 1) you’re starting at $30 million a year just got the ball rolling, and 2) you’re not developing that 22-year-old guy who might just be the next Lamar, or Deshaun, or Patrick.
So where’s the fit for any of the big three – Brady, Brees and Rivers?
None of them are going to even sniff Cincinnati, and the crazy part about this is that two of the teams that are that one legendary quarterback away from being in contention for the Super Bowl – if both Brady and Brees leave – are New England and New Orleans.
So with that in mind …
Tom Brady goes back to New England
The Las Vegas Raiders will put together a package, and Tennessee will make the “one piece away” pitch, but the egos will simmer down after Robert Kraft makes absolutely sure that TB12 finishes out his career as a Patriot.
Drew Brees goes back to New Orleans
He’s not going to go out with a whimper, and he’s not going to play his last year with some random team. Teddy Bridgewater will move on, the franchise will commit to a transition year to get Taysom Hill ready for 2021, and Brees will have his one last ride tour with a team good enough to win the Super Bowl.
Phil Rivers signs with Tampa Bay
Now that Rivers and his massive family are living in Florida, do a coin flip on which of the three teams makes the most sense. Jacksonville isn’t a bad option, Miami is still too far away, and Tampa Bay still has Jameis Winston.
Arms with eyesight after undergoing LASIK surgery, Winston will move on, Rivers will step into a brilliant situation with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to work with, and the Buc offense will be every bit as explosive.
– The NFL teams that need another option
– Joe Burrow situation
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: The teams that need another option
4. The teams that need another option
All of a sudden, some massive free agent prospects will be out there for the taking, but there simply aren’t going to be any obvious openings.
Cam Newton’s time at Carolina appears to be done, Jameis Winston will likely look for a fresh start somewhere else, and Teddy Bridgewater will be looking for a chair when the music stops.
Assuming that there’s no chance that Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Phil Rivers will sign anywhere to be anything less than the anointed Day One starter, what do you do if you’re the Chicago Bears?
You still have Mitchell Trubisky on the cheap for one more year, but you can’t go through another hopeless season if it’s Week 3 and the light hasn’t turned on.
What do you do if you’re Jacksonville, and you have Nick Foles – and don’t say Gardner Minshew – but need an upgrade?
If you’re Carolina, are you really going to roll with Kyle Allen, and if you’re Tennessee, are you really going to believe in Ryan Tannehill?
With the assumption that a few key teams like Cincinnati and Miami will go the draft route for their quarterbacks, here are the calls on several key quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford will stay in Detroit
The rumors will keep being out there that he’s on the trading block, but that’s assuming Detroit has a better option. He’d be perfect at Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas might like him if the braintrust really doesn’t believe in Derek Carr, but there’s no real need for any team to go crazy and trade for a quarterback in this market.
Teddy Bridgewater will go to Chicago
Bridgewater might not bring the mobility the Bear coaching staff might want, and there’s a shot at Andy Dalton coming in to be more than just a backup.
Bridgewater won’t find an instant starting spot anywhere, so he’ll either take his chances with a team that drafts a new quarterback – like the Chargers – or he’ll take the money and be offered the shot to compete for the gig in Chicago.
Dak Prescott will go back to Dallas
Where else is he going to go? He’s a good talent who could start for several teams, but who’s going to put up the big dough in this market for him? He’ll stay a Cowboy.
Ryan Tannehill will go back to Tennessee
He’ll want starter money and a starting job somewhere else, but sort of like the Bridgewater situation, there won’t be a whole lot of places willing go break the bank considering the options out there. Assuming the Titans don’t sign Tom Brady or Drew Brees, they hope they have their guy.
Jameis Winston will go to Carolina
The new coaching staff and offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have their bomber. Assuming that Tampa Bay signs Phil Rivers, Winston and his improved vision will get his shot with a team looking to be a big thing in a real hurry.
Cam Newton will go to Las Vegas
He won’t be given the starting job, but he’ll be allowed to compete with Derek Carr. The Panthers won’t wait to make sure Newton’s foot is okay, Newton will look for a new start, and the Raiders will decide in camp between Newton and Carr and then deal the loser in the fight.
– The old guy free agents
– Joe Burrow situation
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: The Joe Burrow situation
3. The Joe Burrow situation
It’s not exactly Eli and Archie Manning 2004 issues with the then-San Diego Chargers, but the Joe Burrow camp doesn’t appear to be doing cartwheels over the idea of playing for Cincinnati.
No. Burrow isn’t going to sit out the season if he does become a Bengal, and yes, the odds are that GM Mike Brown doesn’t mess around and simply takes the reigning Heisman winner, but ….
There are a few teams with a whole lot of big things to offer Cincinnati for that No. 1 overall pick.
Joe Burrow Scenario No. 1
Cincinnati selects him, there’s a wee bit of grousing, and then everyone says the right things, and the franchise quarterback is in place for the next decade.
Joe Burrow Scenario No. 2
The Bengals get weird, take Ohio State pass rushing superstar Chase Young with the first pick, hang on to Andy Dalton, teams rush to try to trade with Washington to get up to the No. 2 to get Burrow, and everyone goes on with their lives.
Joe Burrow Scenario No. 3
The Bengals get weird, take Chase Young, and no one is able to swing a deal to move up. Miami gets what they want and drafts Burrow at the 5.
Joe Burrow Scenario No. 4
The New England Patriots go really, really bold. They trade their first round pick – the 23 overall – a future first round pick, their second round pick in this year’s draft, and at least three other selections in the mid-to-late rounds. They take Burrow No. 1.
And finally, because the entire theme of this piece is go throw it all against the wall and go with something potentially stupid (but this juuuuuust might happen) …
Joe Burrow Scenario No. 5
Miami. The Dolphins have the 5, the 18, and the 26 in the first round, and they haven’t been shy about how much they want Burrow. They trade away the 5 and the 26 in this year’s draft, a third rounder in this year’s draft, and one of the two second rounders they own in next year’s draft all to move up those four extra spots.
That changes up the dynamic a bit, and then it’s game on for the rest of the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft …
– The old guy free agents
– The NFL teams that need another option
– How the NFL Draft will go
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: Where the QBs will go early in the NFL Draft
2. Where the QBs will go early in the NFL Draft
Let’s just assume that Joe Burrow is going No. 1 overall to someone. If it’s not Cincinnati, then Miami is moving up to get him, or someone else makes a power play move to give away the house for a franchise quarterback.
But who needs a rookie quarterback?
Remembering that teams like the Titans will go the free agent route before they deal with a top pick for a rookie, there are just three teams – Cincinnati, Miami, Los Angeles Chargers – who have to address their quarterback situations early on in the draft.
Two other teams – Indianapolis and Jacksonville – will likely be in the mix for a new starter from the college ranks, too.
This isn’t quite the superstar class for quarterbacks you might think it is, only because of the question marks.
Burrow only really did it for one glorious year at LSU. Tua Tagovailoa has the medical concerns, there are concerns about whether or not Justin Herbert is fiery enough, Jake Fromm’s arm is just meh, Jacob Eason needs some tweaking, and Jordan Love is coming off a mediocre season.
With all of that said, here’s the early call – before the free agent world kicks in full force a month from now – for how this is going to go.
Joe Burrow, LSU: No. 1 overall to Cincinnati or Miami
Again, the call is that Miami will put together a sweet package of cash and prizes to move up from the No. 5 to the 1 to grab Burrow, but if it doesn’t, the Bengals snag him in the top spot.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama: No. 5 overall to Cincinnati or Miami
The early returns on the medical concerns over his hip are positive. If he’s looking like it’s all systems go, there’s a chance teams start to furiously try to trade up to get inside the top five to get him. If not, he’s either a Dolphin or a Bengal at the 5.
Justin Herbert, Oregon: No. 6 overall to Los Angeles Chargers
Put Tagovailoa here if Herbert goes in the top five. Unless the Chargers can land one of the massive free agent stars, no way they don’t kick things off with a new quarterback in the attempt to make a splash in their shiny new digs.
And here’s where things get interesting. Don’t dismiss the idea that Carolina takes a quarterback at the seven. Will Grier might have been an early pick last year, but if Tagovailoa or Herbert slide, or if Jordan Love goes lights out in offseason workouts, the new coaching staff might want to start fresh if it doesn’t want Cam Newton around anymore or doesn’t want one of the key free agents. For now, assume everything will be set by draft day.
Jordan Love, Utah State: No. 13 overall to Indianapolis
Jacksonville might be a player at the 9, and the Raiders might make things interesting at the 12, but with the Jacoby Brissett thing not ending on the highest of notes, the Colts need a franchise quarterback to build around. Love has all of the tools and could go earlier to the Chargers. If Herbert slides to this spot … yoink.
And here’s where the other twist might come.
Miami has the 18th pick, and Jacksonville has the 20. There’s a chance they each go Best Player Available with the 5 and 9, respectively, and wait until here to see what happens. There’s a shot Love or Herbert drop, and Eason and Fromm will definitely be around here. The Dolphins could wait until the 26, too.
Jacob Eason, Washington: 2nd round, No. 42 overall to Jacksonville
In a deep first round, there won’t be too much of a rush to move up to grab Eason or Fromm. Jacksonville can fill needs at corner and on the D line with the 9 and 20, and then wait it out until the 42.
Jake Fromm, Georgia: 2nd round, No. 62 overall to Green Bay
It worked well last time. No one is saying Fromm is another Aaron Rodgers – there’s a MASSIVE difference in arm strength – but the Packers can spend the next two years grooming their future starter as Rodgers – who famously spent a few years waiting behind Brett Favre before cranking up his own legendary career – turns 37 this season.
Okay … so let’s do this.
– The old guy free agents
– The NFL teams that need another option
– Joe Burrow situation
– All 32 Week 1 starters will be …
NEXT: All 32 NFL starters will be …
1. Let’s do this. All 32 NFL starters in 2020 Week 1 will be …
Oh why not?
There are only 426 twists and turns certain to happen between now and the start of the NFL season, but here we go. Every NFL team’s 2020 Week 1 starter will be …
AFC East
Buffalo: Josh Allen
Miami: Joe Burrow
New England: Tom Brady
New York Jets: Sam Darnold
AFC North
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson
Cincinnati: Tua Tagovailoa
Cleveland: Baker Mayfield
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger
AFC South
Houston: Deshaun Watson
Indianapolis: Jordan Love
Jacksonville: Nick Foles
Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill
AFC West
Denver: Drew Lock
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Las Vegas: Derek Carr or Cam Newton
NFC East
Dallas: Dak Prescott
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Philadelphia: Carson Wentz
Washington: Dwayne Haskins
NFC North
Chicago: Mitchell Trubisky
Detroit: Matthew Stafford
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota: Kirk Cousins
NFC South
Atlanta: Matt Ryan
Carolina: Jameis Winston
New Orleans: Drew Brees
Tampa Bay: Philip Rivers
NFC West
Arizona: Kyler Murray
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff
San Francisco: Jimmy Garoppolo
Seattle: Russell Wilson
