With a playoff spot all but locked up, the Oklahoma City Thunder can start focusing on playoff seeding.
Entering Monday with a 37-23 record, the Thunder are just half a game behind the fifth-placed Utah Jazz. However, Oklahoma City is also just half a spot above the seventh seed.
With such a slim margin between five and seven, the Thunder need to win all they can to get a more favorable first-round opponent.
The Los Angeles Lakers are currently atop the Western Conference standings by a healthy 5.5-game margin over the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers, who are tied for second.
The Houston Rockets sit comfortably in fourth place, two games ahead of the floundering Utah Jazz.
Behind the Rockets are the Jazz, Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies, in that order.
Here are the five most important games on the Thunder schedule the rest of the season.
March 3: Home against the Los Angeles Clippers
Coming off a historically bad loss to the league-leading Milwaukee Bucks, the Thunder can right the ship against another title contender in the Clippers. The Thunder will open March with their first test against the Clippers’ new look that includes trade deadline and buyout players Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson.
As the Clippers have days off Monday and Wednesday and then two more Friday and Saturday, the Thunder might see both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for the first time.
Los Angeles is 21-7 when both star wings are in the lineup and 20-12 when one or both is out.
Leonard missed both matchups so far against the Thunder. There’s a chance Oklahoma City faces this Clippers team in the playoffs – and it could be as early as the first round — so getting a taste against the fully-stocked Clippers team now will help should that time come.
March 11: Home against the Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz have lost four of their last five games entering Monday. They have looked dysfunctional on the court and off as starting lineup changes were leaked to the media – and then later the Jazz changed their mind about the lineup switch and decided to pull Joe Ingles from the lineup instead of Mike Conley.
If they can’t figure it out over the next week and a half, March 11 would be the perfect time for the Thunder to strike.
Utah’s usual top-10 defense has been among the worst in the league over the last five games. Through Feb. 12, the team allowed the sixth-fewest points per game, 107.2, and its offensive rating of 107.6 was eighth-best.
Since, the Jazz have allowed an average of nine more points per game and its offensive rating of 117.3 is No. 28 in the league.
The two teams will play again on April 13, the second-to-last game of the season. But now is the time to jump on the Jazz.
The Thunder need some separation; do it in March and don’t just hope Utah won’t correct itself by April. The Jazz are a proven good team and it’s more than likely they will have.
March 20: Home against the Denver Nuggets
The Thunder face the Nuggets twice more this season: Once at home on March 20 and once on the road 10 days later. Denver is one of the best home teams in the league, so if the Thunder can get the win at Chesapeake Energy Arena ensure at least a split in the remaining games against Denver, it could go a long way.
Star center Nikola Jokic started the season slow, but he’s been otherworldly for the majority of it and is making a First Team All-NBA case. Since Dec. 6, he has averaged 23.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 7.1 steals while making ridiculous shots and unbelievable passes.
He also carried the Nuggets in the playoffs last year, averaging almost 40 minutes a night and posting 25 points, 13 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game.
Jokic is an unusual brand of center, and figuring out ways to slow him down is important in case these two teams match up in the playoffs.
April 10: Home against the New York Knicks
Wait – the Knicks aren’t a good team. All these other games have playoff implications. What East Coast, New York bias allowed them to make this list?
This inclusion is not about how tough this game should be.
It’s because this is the only game against an opponent not expected to be in the playoff hunt over the final 11 days. It’s a very important game to win.
In April, the Thunder take a trip to LA to face the Clippers and Lakers on April 4 and 5, respectively, play against a Brooklyn Nets team that may be fighting for its playoff life on April 7, the same type of matchup on April 11 against the Memphis Grizzlies and then close out the season against the Jazz and the Mavericks on April 13 and 15, respectively.
With six games against potential playoff teams, taking care of business against the Knicks is vital.
There’s a big difference in a seven-game stretch between a 2-5, 3-4 or 4-3 record.
April 15: At the Dallas Mavericks
There’s a solid chance the final game of the season will have seeding implications. With such a tight race between the fifth and seventh spots, this could dictate who the Thunder play in the first round of the playoffs.
If that is the case, and the game is of importance to the Mavericks, Dallas will likely play Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis has been on a tear since Jan. 31, averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.9 blocks and 3.6 3-pointers per game on 39.6% shooting beyond the arc in 11 appearances.
Ideally, the Thunder won’t leave its seeding fate until the final day of the season. But things happen, and with such a difficult April schedule, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Oklahoma City have to play down to the wire. Luckily for the Thunder, its clutch-time performance this season has been maybe the best in the league.
