The draft and free-agency are officially over, and while Dave Caldwell didn’t address all the team’s needs, he put together a solid group of players that could leave fans pleasantly surprised. Now comes the waiting period before the season — and it could be a memorable one during which the team rids itself of the fallout of the last two seasons.
Like all teams, the Jags will need a little luck along the way, and they’ll need certain things to go their way in 2020 as they try and improve upon their six-win season. That said, here are five factors that could make or break them:
Gardner Minshew’s play
Quarterback play is the biggest factor in any football season, and the Jags will need Gardner Minshew II to pick up where he left off in 2019. He was able to impress last year by leading the Jags to all six of their wins and completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
With the Jags’ staff potentially in the hot seat, the team will need even more from Minshew in 2020. Another six-win season would have to have some repercussions, but more importantly, it would probably cost him his job past this season.
However, if he does improve, that would be huge for the Jags heading forward as they could add even more around him next season. With new coordinator Jay Gruden by his side, it appears he has a good chance of taking things to the next level as Gruden has worked well with young signal-callers.
The Jags’ defensive transition
The Jags will be using more 3-4 looks, according to the staff. That comes as no surprise as they started the offseason by making it clear that they would put their players in better position to win. That said, the team decided to make the move as their defensive players mostly came from 3-4 backgrounds.
Defensive coordinator Todd Wash has never been a part of a predominately 3-4 team, so this will be foreign territory for him if the Jags truly make the transition. That could lead to hiccups early in the season, something the Jags can’t afford. With that being the case, Wash and the defense can’t afford to take too long to find their footing as it could put the Jags behind early.
The good thing is that the first half of the Jags’ schedule isn’t extremely difficult. They will face teams like the Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals in the first quarter, all of whom could allow them to garner some confidence early in the season.
A solid performance from their last two draft classes
Minshew isn’t the only player the Jags recently drafted who needs to step up. Doug Marrone also needs their 2019-20 class to come up big.
While Marrone and Caldwell may not have to make the playoffs, they probably can’t afford to have the same win total from last year. If they are going to register a seven-win season or more, they need their 2019 class to replicate their initial success. That includes Minshew, Josh Allen, and Jawaan Taylor (who had solid seasons) as well as tight end Josh Oliver, who barely played.
The Jags will also need a lot of help from their 2020 class. As previously mentioned, Wash will be utilizing new defensive concepts and will do so with multiple rookies on the defensive side.
The Jags selected cornerback C.J. Henderson, edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, and defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton in the top-3 rounds. Henderson will almost certainly start while Chaisson and Hamilton will at least see significant snaps.
If you take away the contributions the 2019 class made from last year, there is no way the Jags get six wins. The same can be said about the Jags getting seven wins this season, but the 2020 class is going to need help from last year’s class, too.
Growth from the offensive line
The Jags’ front office showed a great deal of faith in the 2019 offensive line this offseason, electing to make just one significant contribution to the unit in Ben Bartch, who might not even crack the lineup this offseason. This decision could go either way as the Jags’ offensive line graded out to be the 26th ranked unit, per Pro Football Focus.
Clearly, the unit is going to have to improve. Cam Robinson has been up and down on the blindside and will be playing on a contract year in 2020. Andrew Norwell, who was once the highest-paid guard in football, hasn’t played to his big-time payday. At the opposite guard position, A.J. Cann hasn’t been very good, either, and could be replaced next year by Bartch.
As an offensive line coach, this is something Marrone could look to be more hands-on with as their performance certainly shouldn’t sit well with him. Robinson and Norwell specifically have proven to be better than fans have seen, and if they can get back to playing on a decent level, it would help the offense tremendously.
Staying healthy
Aside from quarterback play, this is possibly the most important factor that could make or break the Jags in 2020.
On offense, the Jags were especially plagued at tight end in 2019 as James O’Shaughnessy and Josh Oliver had to be placed on injured reserve, limiting Minshew’s options for targets in the middle of the field. They will both be returning in 2020, but if they have the same luck at the position (or get hit as hard at any other offensive positions), it could cost the Jags multiple games.
The Jags’ injuries on defense proved to be just as devastating. The losses of linebacker Myles Jack and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to IR particularly hurt them against the run, and teams took advantage of them in that department. They finished 28th against the run and the front office attacked the issue with several defensive additions like veterans Joe Schobert, Al Woods, Rodney Gunter, and the aforementioned rookie additions from this offseason.
The Jags will especially need to be healthy towards the end of the season because that’s the toughest part of the schedule. With top-10 defenses like the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears on the schedule, the last part of 2019 could be brutal if the Jags aren’t relatively healthy.
