Since Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race (2 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime) will be the first ever held in Mexico City, coming up with a list of top contenders could potentially feel like little more than a guessing game.
In all reality, though, it’s not all that hard.
That’s because several drivers quite simply stand out above the rest as having the best chances to go to Victory Lane.
Here are the five (in no particular) most likely to celebrate a win in the Viva Mexico 250 at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, a 2.42-mile road course.
Shane van Gisbergen
In case you haven’t noticed yet, Shane van Gisbergen is the real deal on road courses. After shocking the NASCAR world by winning in his Cup Series debut two years at the Chicago Street Course, the New Zealander recaptured his road course magic when he claimed the pole during Saturday’s qualifying round in Mexico City. Starting up front on Sunday gives van Gisbergen a distinct advantage at the 15-turn course, where passing is likely to prove challenging.
We made some big swings last night. The @SafetyCultureHQ Chevrolet was a bit better and we had a lot of speed today, it was a great improvement. Looking forward to the race tomorrow! 😀 pic.twitter.com/WtCkw65Wqa
— Shane van Gisbergen (@shanevg97) June 14, 2025
Daniel Suarez
Daniel Suarez did the unthinkable in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series in Mexico City, going from worst at the green flag to first at the checkered. Making this feat even more remarkable was that Suarez accomplished it in a backup car after destroying his primary in qualifying. Suarez, the only Mexican driver in the Cup Series field, will have a much easier path to the front on Sunday, when he rolls off from the 10th position. Will he make it a clean sweep of the weekend in his native country and set off a wild celebration among the tens of thousands in attendance? Stay tuned.
DANIEL SUÁREZ WINS IN MEXICO CITY! 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/UgfLoKVgyw
— NASCAR Xfinity (@NASCAR_Xfinity) June 14, 2025
Michael McDowell
Always a factor on the road courses, Michael McDowell should be in the hunt per usual come Sunday afternoon. Although more well known for his 2021 Daytona 500 win, McDowell picked up his second and most recent Cup Series triumph in 2023 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. His No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet will line up fifth on the starting grid in Mexico City, so McDowell is well-positioned to once again live up to his reputation as a road course ace.
AJ Allmendinger
If you don’t include AJ Allmendinger on the shortlist of those who can prevail at any road course, well, you just don’t know AJ Allmendinger. The veteran driver is always fast on the tracks where drivers turn both right and left, so you can expect Sunday’s showdown in Mexico City to be no different. Allmendinger, who starts eighth in his Kaulig Racing Chevrolet, will be seeking his fourth triumph in NASCAR’s premier division. His first three wins? Well, they came at Watkins Glen, Indianapolis and the Charlotte ROVAL — all road courses.
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson is a contender to win at every type of race track, no matter the layout. Road courses are no exception. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been to Victory Lane more than any other Cup Series wheelman since 2021, and it’s not even close. Already a three-time winner in 2025, Larson will almost certainly be in the mix on Sunday unless something goes terribly awry. He’ll take the green flag from the sixth starting spot in his No. 5 Chevrolet.
