20 for 2020: 20 key college football offseason topics, No. 1: Five preseason College Football Playoff scenarios
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
20 for 2020 Offseason Topics
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. 5 Teams That Might Disappoint
6. 5 Teams That Might Surprise
5. Group of Five Conference Ranking
4. Power 5 Conference Ranking
3. Top Non-Obvious Heisman Candidates
2. 5 Nutty Predictions That Might Be Right
We’ll keep on doing what we do whether or not there’s a season, but all thoughts go out to those suffering and struggling, and to all the health care workers battling above and beyond the call. Please … stay safe.
If there’s a College Football Playoff, who’s going to be in the thing?
There’s nothing fluky about a College Football Playoff national championship. Maybe you can get there with a relatively light schedule and a few big breaks – Utah and Baylor almost did it last year – but if it was so easy, a whole lot of others would be able to do it.
After six years, we sort of know how this all goes.
1. Go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference championship, and you’re in. It would take a historic anomaly – like all five conference champs going 13-0 – to miss out.
2. Go 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship, and realistically, you’re in. 2018 Ohio State is the first and only one to be left out.
3. Be an 11-1 powerhouse Power Five team that lost one tough battle, and you have a chance. You need help, but you can get there like 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama.
Other than that, be Notre Dame and go 12-0 – and get a little help – and it can be done. The Group of Five programs, though, have yet to crack the code, and there has yet to be a two-loss team in the CFP.
With all that in mind, if we’re able to get a season this year, here are five possible College Football Playoff scenarios.
CFN in 60: 5 Possible College Football Playoff Scenarios
5. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Chalk
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma
There are two ways to look at this.
Either you have powerhouse fatigue and you’re bored of seeing the same teams over and over again – even LSU didn’t seem all that new, considering it was the SEC Champion – or you’re geeked out that these four programs are killers and should make for a strong tournament.
Could Oklahoma finally get over the hump and get into the national championship? Is it possible for Alabama to win a third one of these after not getting it done the last two seasons?
Will Clemson be able to come through with a third national title in five years, or could Ohio State get back to the CFP national championship in its fourth trip in seven playoffs?
Even if it’s not these four exact teams, if it’s any SEC champion, maybe a big-time Big Ten champ, and even a second SEC team in to go along with Clemson, it would be a whole lot of fun.
We’ll go into the problem if it’s anything other than a four-team powerhouse chalk CFP in a moment, but first …
NEXT: College Football Playoff Scenario: First Time Teams
4. College Football Playoff Scenario: First Time, Big Time Programs
Florida, Texas, USC, Wisconsin/Penn State
LSU was on this list last year, and it all worked out just fine.
We already did the piece on the best teams to not make the CFP, but this is more about which four programs would get everyone fired up.
Utah has won its share of games over the last six years, and it would be fun to see other teams – like Texas A&M, or Auburn, or Miami, or Michigan – make their way in for the brand-name value. Take any four Power Five newbies and throw them into the mix.
Imagine what it would be if you have LSU of last year times four?
With only some due respect to Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin have done the most to push that rock up the CFP mountain only to come up just short from the top.
Okay, so there might not be fans in the stands until late 2021 or even 2022, but if it would possible, either one of those programs would pack a house. They’ve both more than earned their stripes in the CFP era to finally be able to get a shot.
Now imagine a Big Ten champion Wisconsin or Penn State vs. a resurgent USC – don’t scoff; this is a fantastic team returning – in the Rose Bowl, and Florida facing off against Texas in the Sugar Bowl?
Texas might not be crushing it quite like the fan base might like under Tom Herman, but the guy knows how to coach bowl games, going 4-0 at both Houston and Texas and 3-0 in the New Year’s Six.
Dan Mullen won his two big bowl games at Florida and is 7-2 overall in post-season games.
As long as the four new guys are great, okay, However, other than LSU of last season, the outlier teams don’t quite work.
2015 Michigan State, 2016 Washington, and 2018 Notre Dame were all bounced out right away and with ease. So while new is fun, here’s the problem …
NEXT: College Football Playoff Scenario: The Nuclear Option
3. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Nuclear Option
Either Clemson, Alabama or Ohio State, and … three mediocre 12-1 Power Five champions
What would’ve happened if Clemson got whacked big by Virginia in the ACC Championship?
What if that happened, and Baylor pulled off the Big 12 Championship win over Oklahoma, Utah got by Oregon to win the Pac-12, and Minnesota managed to beat Wisconsin and shock Ohio State on the way to the Big Ten title?
There are a LOT of unrealistic ifs in there, but going into late November there was a possible wacky scenario for the College Football Playoff to be made up of LSU, Minnesota, Baylor and Utah.
Okay, okay, okay, so a one-loss Ohio State still probably gets in, and Clemson might have snuck in, too, but you get the idea.
That takes things to the extreme, but you saw what LSU did to Oklahoma and was able to pull off against Clemson. Imagine what it would’ve done against teams down a peg or two talent-wise?
Even if you get a scenario where two very-good-but-not-national-title-good teams happen to find their way in – for example, 2018 Notre Dame, and, to a lesser extent, 2018 Oklahoma – then you’ll likely have a bad tournament.
Miami has a relatively easy schedule. What if it goes 11-1 and shocks Clemson in the ACC Championship?
What if Minnesota gets by Wisconsin on the road and rows the boat from there on the way to the Big Ten title?
Oklahoma State doesn’t have that bad a slate. If it goes 11-1 and pulls off the Big 12 title, and then …
It’s those three and the dominant SEC champion in the playoff.
Yippee.
It won’t happen, but we are overdue for …
NEXT: College Football Playoff Scenario: The Group of Five FINALLY Gets In
2. College Football Playoff Scenario: The Group of Five FINALLY Gets In
Any Three Power Five champions, and one Group of Five champion
0-for-24.
There have been 24 spots available in the six College Football Playoffs so far, and no champion from the American Athletic, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or Sun Belt has come even close to getting in the thing.
Memphis was 17th in last year’s final CFP Rankings.
UCF was eighth in 2018, and 12th despite going 12-0 in 2017.
Western Michigan got the Group of Five’s throw-them-a-bone New Year’s Six spot by finishing 15th in 2016, Houston was 18th in 2015, and Boise State was 20th in 2014.
Again, not even close.
To be fair, there’s a reason. No matter what Group of Five fans and schools like to say, there really is a difference between going through a Power Five schedule and getting a lighter run – really, talent-wise, there is a difference from top-to-bottom – against a Gof5 slate matters.
That doesn’t mean that a massive bulk of the 130 college football teams are pretty much out of the College Football Playoff race before the first kickoff.
The answer continues to be a simple expansion – go to six with all Power Five champions and the top Group of Five champion, or even to eight – but that’s not happening.
For a Group of Five champ to get in, it has to 1) go 13-0, 2) do it while rolling past a few Power Five teams on the slate, and 3) get a total meltdown in the Power Five conferences with at least two of them finishing with a multi-loss league champion.
Even then, it’s going to be a huge reach for one of these programs to get into the top four.
So …
NEXT: College Football Playoff Scenario: What’s Going To Happen
1. College Football Playoff Scenario: What’s Going To Happen?
If and when there’s a 2020 college football season in some form, and there’s a College Football Playoff …
As always, Alabama loses a ton of talent to the NFL. As always, Alabama still has as much or more talent as just about everyone else. After failing to get into the College Football Playoff last year – and getting walloped by Clemson in the 2017 season national championship – the focus is there, the pieces are there, and the schedule isn’t all that bad.
There’s USC, but that’s in AT&T Stadium in Arlington. There’s Georgia, but that’s at home. So are the Texas A&M and Auburn dates. Going to LSU is nasty, but that’s the one superstar program that loses even more than Bama does.
The Tide will get to the SEC Championship at 11-1 and win it, or 12-0 and lose it. More on this in a moment.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, in my 5 Nutty Predictions thing I said that Clemson would lose twice. Now I have to be a bit more responsible. I do think two losses are possible, but it’s Clemson. It’ll be the preseason No. 1 team, and losing once is likely, but it’ll take a disaster to drop two games. Put the Tigers in for the sixth year in a row.
Ohio State is going to roll through everyone – almost. Broken record time, but like Alabama and Clemson, losing NFL talent just doesn’t matter to the Buckeyes.
The program is a machine, Michigan is Michigan, Michigan State is down, there’s no Wisconsin on the regular season slate, and there’s nothing to really worry about other than road games to Oregon and Penn State. Split those, and – especially if there’s a win over the Nittany Lions – get to the Big Ten Championship (again) and beat Wisconsin (again).
Back to Alabama and the SEC. Here’s the call for the fourth spot.
The Pac-12 and Big 12 champions will each have two losses, and Notre Dame will come really, really close, but not quite at 11-1.
There’s going to be a battle for the CFP between 11-1 Penn State that loses to Ohio State, and 12-1 Georgia that loses to Alabama. OR, it’ll be Bama that loses the SEC Championship and gets in over the Nittany Lions.
The Dawgs don’t play LSU or Texas A&M, but they do have to go to Bama early in the season. They either pull off the upset there, or take the SEC Championship in the rematch.
Alabama vs. Clemson in the Sugar, Ohio State vs. Georgia in the Rose.
There. No need for a season – just make that happen.
20 for 2020 Offseason Topics
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
7. 5 Teams That Might Disappoint
6. 5 Teams That Might Surprise
5. Group of Five Conference Ranking
4. Power 5 Conference Ranking
3. Top Non-Obvious Heisman Candidates
2. 5 Nutty Predictions That Might Be Right
