A new champion will most likely be crowned Saturday night, when the UFC closes out its run of three events in eight days with UFC on ESPN+ 30.
The main event is a rematch for the vacant UFC flyweight title, as Brazil’s Deiveson Figueiredo squares off with longtime contender Joseph Benavidez.
The duo first faced off in a Feb. 29 fight that was intended to fill a championship left vacant late last year, when Henry Cejudo relinquished the belt.
Figueiredo won the bout via second-round TKO, but not before missing weight and thus becoming ineligible to claim the title, even with the victory. So you’ll have to excuse us for definitively stating that a new champion is crowned until we see actually see UFC president Dana White wrap the belt around the winner’s waist on Saturday night.
But the good news is the first fight was a scrap while it lasted, so that leaves hope the second one will deliver, as well.
Without further ado, then, here are five burning questions heading into UFC on ESPN+ 30
Will the fifth time be the charm for Benavidez?
We had this to say about Benavidez going into their first fight:
If one judge had scored one round differently at WEC 50, Benavidez (28-5 MMA, 15-3 UFC) would have defeated Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title.
If one judge had scored one round differently at UFC 152, Benavidez, not Johnson, would have been the first UFC flyweight champion.
Those razor-thin margins in a pair of split decisions mark the difference between Benavidez getting counted among the ranks of world champions many years ago, and his distinction now as one of the greatest fighters never to hold a major belt.
There’s really not much to add here, is there? Benavidez was eligible to win the belt despite Figueiredo’s weight miss last time, and the loss put him at 0-4 on his career in major title fights, a mark which belies the fact he’s one of the sport’s truly great lighter-weight fighters.
But Figueiredo’s weight miss gave him a mulligan, and gave one of the game’s smartest fighters a chance to learn from the mistakes of the first fight and adapt. This time, it’s truly now or never.
Can Figueiredo get it right the second time around?
Feb. 29 should have marked Figueiredo’s shining moment. He weathered Benavidez’s early storm to finish him in the second round, and he should have become UFC flyweight champion.
You already know why he didn’t: Figgy came in at 127.5 pounds, 2.5 over the championship mark, in the previous day’s weigh-ins.
Last week, we had another flurry of frenetic activity, as Figueiredo tested positive for COVID-19, then re-tested and came back negative, an episode which delayed his departure for Abu Dhabi.
You can use the unrelated events of February and last week to paint a picture Figueiredo doesn’t have his act together.
On the other hand, anyone can false positive test for COVID, and the weight miss market his first in 19 pro fights. Which brings us back to the first Benavidez fight, which happens to be the third time in his past four wins that Figueiredo finished a previous UFC title challenger inside of two rounds.
If that guy shows up, then there’s a strong chance Brazil will add to its considerable all-time list of UFC champions.
Can Kelvin Gastelum get it back together?
At Thursday’s UFC on ESPN+ 30 media day, Kelvin Gastelum opened up on the issues which have been holding him back in his recent fights.
While he didn’t go into specifics, Gastelum alluded to personal issues which dogged him in the lead-up to losses to Israel Adesanya and Darren Till.
“It was just some personal stuff going on behind the scenes in my life, and we eliminated that aspect, and I feel like a resurgence in me, and I really enjoyed the process for this camp, which really hasn’t been the case in the past,” Gastelum said
If that’s the case, that’s good news for fight fans, because the competitor who came within a hair’s breadth of defeating Adesanya at UFC 236, in what many considered 2019’s greatest fight, is an athlete who is both gritty and exciting. And if that Gastelum shows up Saturday night, then his middleweight co-feature bout against Jack Hermansson looks like the fight which on paper could steal the show.
Can Jack Hermansson regain his mojo?
Jack Hermansson did not have an easy path to the top in the UFC’s middleweight division. The Oslo-based fighter nicknamed “The Joker” had a rise through the UFC ranks which went in fits and starts, stumbling to the likes of Cezar Ferreira and Thiago Santos whenever it seemed he was putting it all together.
But Hermansson finally forced his way into the picture in a memorable month in 2019, as he submitted former WSOF light heavyweight and middleweight champ David Branch in just 49 seconds, then stepped in on short notice just four weeks later and earned a unanimous decision over former Strikeforce middleweight champ “Jacare” Souza.
Just as soon as he forced his way onto the 185-pound short list, though, he ran into a freight train named Jared Cannonier, who scored a brutal finish in their bout last September.
So Hermansson’s back, with another high-profile opponent in Gastelum. There seems a pivotal sense of urgency to this fight: One of these guys is right back in the mix for a shot at Adesanya’s belt, while the other might find their train has left the station.
Will a new flyweight contender emerge?
Late last week, when Figueiredo’s status was uncertain, MMA Junkie reported Alexandre Pantoja would step into the title fight against Benavidez if it turned out his fellow Brazilian wasn’t able to compete.
The 30-year old has been with the UFC since 2017. Pantoja (22-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) won four out of his past five fights, with the only loss along the way going to Figueiredo. He’s also a finisher, with three of his past four wins occurring inside the distance, as well as 16 of his 22 overall victories.
A win here would give him five out of six and real momentum in a division which isn’t the mess it was a year ago, but still doesn’t exactly have a logjam of sellable contenders. Askar Askarov, though, is undefeated, with a draw against Brandon Moreno the only blemish on his ledger. Askarov (11-0-1 MMA, 1-0-1 UFC) is a finisher, too, so with an impressive show here, he can crash the party. Either way, whoever emerges from this fight should be no more than a fight away from a crack at the gold.
