Here’s what ChiefsWire.com’s Charles Goldman had to say about the New England Patriots’ matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.
1. Do you think the Patriots can keep pace with the Chiefs without Cam Newton?
It doesn’t seem all that likely to me. Instead of having to defend all 11 players on the field, the Chiefs only have to account for 10 now. That changes the game plan entirely and really helps the K.C. defense, especially when Brian Hoyer isn’t exactly known as a dominant passer.
I don’t think I’m underestimating Hoyer when I say he’s not that good. Lately in his career, even with a practice week where he’s prepared as a starter, he’s struggled. So what happens when he’s only had two days of virtual meetings and no practice time as a starter to prepare?
Also, an underrated aspect of the game being rescheduled is that Chris Jones is one day closer to 100 percent. He was already trending toward playing after limited practice all week, but now he’s almost certainly going to be in there. He’ll make it that much more difficult for the Pats to protect Hoyer.
2. How not intimidating is Brian Hoyer on a scale from 1-10?
Not very.
The last time that Brian Hoyer started a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, he was the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans. It was the AFC Wild Card game in 2015, played in Houston. During the game, Hoyer completed less than 50% of his passes for under 200 yards. He threw no touchdowns, four interceptions and had a few fumbles. The Chiefs won the game 30-0 in what was the franchise’s first playoff win since 1993.
Obviously, these are different teams now, but Hoyer hasn’t exactly flourished since then. He’s 0-10 in his last 10 starts. I think it’s safe to say that the folks in Kansas City will be more concerned with Bill Belichick, the Pats running game and their defense in this one.
3. If the Patriots resort to running the ball 75% of the time, will the Chiefs be able to stop them?
The Chiefs showed signs of improvement defending the run in Week 3 against the Ravens, but there is definitely still some concern there. Through the first three weeks of the season, they’ve been one of the worst tackling teams in the league with 34 missed tackles. Their best shot at not having to worry about the run game is jumping out to an early lead.
One thing to watch in the run game is a potential grudge match for Chiefs DT Mike Pennel, who was with the Patriots ahead of the 2019 season. He’s been the best run stopper on the defensive line for Kansas City. He’s also coached by Brendan Daly, another former Patriot, who could have extra motivation in this one.
Surprisingly, I’m a bit more concerned about the linebackers matching up with Rex Burkhead and James White in coverage. That looks like the type of matchup that Bill Belichick could exploit and lean on in this game.
4. New England showed they could (sort of) slow Patrick Mahomes last year. Think they can recreate that game plan?
I think it’s going to be tough for them to do. First of all, this Patriots defense, specifically the secondary, hasn’t been nearly as successful defending the pass this season as they were a season ago.
The Chiefs’ offense has changed a bit too, with the addition of Kelechi Osemele and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, they’ve found some success running the ball. This offense could look more like what the Patriots faced in Week 1 of 2017, rather than what they saw a season ago.
Also, Mahomes is playing a more mature game this year. He’s doing a really good job of protecting the football. He’s doing a better job of anticipating what a defense is going to do ahead of the snap. He’s taking what defenses give him instead of forcing some plays that aren’t really there.
5. What’s your prediction for the game?
I updated my prediction after the Cam Newton situation. I just don’t feel like Brian Hoyer can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes. He’s prone to turnovers and the last thing that any team can afford to do is gift the Chiefs an extra possession. I took Chiefs 42. Patriots 20.
