What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for the over/under point totals going into first round on Friday?
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Every Game Preview & Prediction
– CFN Expert Picks: Every First Round Game
The unpredictability and irrationality of the games themselves are what define the NCAA Tournament. As you’re reading this, your bracket is already busted – really, it is, you just don’t know it yet.
Point totals are different.
Point totals don’t care if that 14 beats the 3 or if the 2 beat the 15 by 54. Here, you should be a wee bit more in control of your investment.
Here are five NCAA Tournament first round Friday games that appear to be a wee bit favorable when it comes to the over/under and point total.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. (3) Arkansas vs (14) Colgate
Point Total: 161.5
Pick: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even for two high-powered college offenses, 161.5 is a massive number.
Easy math, that means at least one team has to be in the 80s to get there, and that shouldn’t be a problem. The concern is likely going to be Arkansas and how much it wins by.
Colgate averages 86 points per game, but as I pointed out in the 5 Best Picks Against The Spread piece, you and four friends could’ve hung at least 70 on the board against the teams on the Raider schedule.
Arkansas averages over 82 a game, and it’s probably going to get there and then some. How much does the Hog D want to slow down a Colgate offense that scores in bunches, but again, is taking a massive step up in competition?
The best comp to use is the Arkansas 87-76 win over Oral Roberts back in late December. The Golden Eagles bomb away as well as any team in the country – they’re playing Ohio State in the first round – and that game barely got past the 161.5 mark.
Forget the seed, Oral Roberts is a more dangerous team than Colgate – again, forget the stats and look at the competition.
Arkansas-Colgate is more likely an 85-68 type of game than any sort of an even shootout, and even then, there’s a chance the Hogs put this away and sort of coast.
Only nine of the 28 games Arkansas played got to over 161.5 and one of them was in overtime.
Follow us @ColFootballNews
NEXT: Houston vs Cleveland State
4. (7) Clemson vs (10) Rutgers
Point Total: 125.5
Pick: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Under … on 125.5?! Yeeeech.
If you’re going to do this, go lightly – no one likes people who take the unders – but …
These two teams don’t score a ton, they should play a relatively slow-and-go game, and let’s just say Rutgers doesn’t appear to be 1000% focused, with guard Geo Baker helping to lead a movement for players’ rights with #NotNCAAProperty. (OF COURSE the players should be in control of their names, images, and likenesses, but that’s for another day.)
Both teams would love to play this thing in the 60s. They both have tough defenses, deliberate offenses, and they’re both great at controlling the tempo and flow. It’s not that they can’t score; it’s that it’s just not their style to make this crazy.
Rutgers scored 17 points or fewer in 15 of their 26 games, and Clemson was under 70 points in 16 of its 23 games. More importantly, Clemson allowed fewer than 70 in 16 of the 23 and under 60 points in nine of those. Rutgers allowed 70 or fewer in 14 of is 26 games, and 60 or fewer in seven.
Throw in that the intensity of the NCAA Tournament should make these teams even stronger in their possession concerns, and expect this to be played in the 50s instead of the 70s.
NEXT: Villanova vs Winthrop
3. (2) Houston vs (15) Cleveland State
Point Total: 134.5
Pick: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Oh dear lord, OVER.
There’s always that game that if your investment doesn’t come through, it’s not your fault. This is one of them.
Houston is a scoring machine, it keeps it going no matter what, and it’s got the ability to take care of most of the heavy lifting all by itself.
134.5 just isn’t that big a number, and Cleveland State isn’t exactly a defensive powerhouse.
Yes, back in early December the Vikings gave Ohio State a run in a 67-61 loss, but that was a week after getting 101 hung on them by Ohio.
To get to the 135, you need to start with Houston getting to around 75. It did that in 15 of the 27 games, and even a few of the games that didn’t get there worked their way to over 135.
To be fair to Cleveland State, it is decent defensively against the mediocre offenses, and it only allowed 75 or more eight times in their 26 games, but Houston is a 2 seed for a reason, and Cleveland State has enough pop and firepower to keep up and do its part.
You’re realistically just asking the Vikings to push a bit past 60 here, and that shouldn’t be an issue – they did that in every game but four, and two of those four they were blown out with the total blowing past the 135.
NEXT: North Carolina vs Wisconsin
2. (2) Ohio State vs (15) Oral Roberts
Point Total: 157
Pick: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Get in, make sure your seat belt is tight, and enjoy the ride.
You want to get past 157 points? Oral Roberts has scored 80 or more in 15 of their 26 games, and five of those other 11 either got to 157 or blew past it.
Oral Roberts shoots threes.
It shoots threes, and then it shoots more threes, and then it shoots more, and occasionally it takes free throws – and makes them.
The Golden Eagles are No. 1 in the nation in free throw percentage, they’re No. 1 in the nation in three pointers per game, and they’re No. 3 in the nation in three point field goals overall.
Oh, they’re going to lose to Ohio State – and badly – but they’re going to keep on firing up threes for a full 40 minutes, and they’re going to make the Buckeyes keep trying, too.
By the way, Oral Roberts gives up 76 points per game.
Ohio State? It scored 70 points or more in 22 of 30 games. It’s going to blow past 70 getting off the bus, and it shouldn’t have any issues getting to 80.
NEXT: San Diego State vs Syracuse
1. (6) San Diego State vs (11) Syracuse
Point Total: 139
Pick: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You might have to sweat this out a bit, but it’s going to be okay.
These two programs are known for their suffocating defenses, but this year they haven’t been quite the brick walls of past seasons. The bigger problem is that both can go on scoring runs a bit.
However, for this under pick to work, all you’re asking for is a game played in the 60s. That’s not a big reach here, and there’s a chance that one of the two defenses rises up and holds the other side in the 50s or even worse.
San Diego State held its opponent to under 60 in 13 of the 27 games, and it didn’t allow anyone to get more than 72 – that includes a high-powered Wyoming team a few times.
The Aztecs are No. 8 in the nation in scoring defense, No. 7 in field goal defense, and they have no problems being in control of games.
Syracuse isn’t quite as nasty statistically, but it’s great at stoping the three, it finished second in the ACC in field goal percentage defense, and while way too many games got out of hand, 14 of the 27 opponents were held to 70 points or fewer.
It’ll be very, very close, but assume that both teams are a bit more careful with their possessions and both ramp up the defensive intensity.
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Every Game Preview & Prediction
– CFN Expert Picks: Every First Round Game
