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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Pete Fiutak

5 Best NFL Predictions Against The Spread: Week 4

What 5 NFL games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 4? Here you go. Enjoy.


Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews 
Week 4 NFL Predictions, Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL

Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.

Diving into the NFL world, the five lines that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …

5. Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay

LINE: Tampa Bay -7
ATS PICK: Tampa Bay
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

For the first time, Justin Herbert started to look and play like a rookie.

The Chargers turned it over four times against Carolina in a 21-16 loss last week even with a big day through the air from Herbert. He’s not going to get hot against a Tampa Bay defense that’s been surprisingly stingy so far – it’s doing a whole lot of bending without breaking.

And that’s the problem. The Chargers are doing a whole lot of things right, they’re running well, the secondary has been good, and outside of the giveaways last week, there’s a whole lot to like. But scoring has been an issue.

LA is 30th in the league in scoring – it hasn’t cracked the 20-point mark – and the Bucs at home should have no problem winning by a touchdown as long as Tom Brady doesn’t start throwing picks.

Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL

NEXT: Arizona at Carolina

4. Arizona at Carolina

LINE: Arizona -3
ATS PICK: Arizona
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

Carolina doesn’t have the pop or firepower to keep up if Arizona starts to get moving, but the defense has been helping the cause with a whole lot of big plays.

The Panthers have forced six turnovers over the last two games, and Arizona – for all of the good things it’s doing – isn’t quite scoring enough to make this comfortable. However, on the first trip outside of the Pacific Time Zone, the Cardinals should still be able to move the offense with Kyler Murray taking off.

So far, Carolina has faced Derek Carr, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert. Fine passers all, but none of them come close to moving like Murray, if at all.

The only reason the Panthers held down the Chargers last week was because of the four takeaways. Murray will give away a big pick, but he’ll make up for it with a good all-around day.

NEXT: Cleveland at Dallas

3. Cleveland at Dallas

LINE: Dallas -3.5
ATS PICK: Dallas
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

It was nice before at Dallas -4, and now the world is giving you a half a point.

The Cowboys are banged up on the offensive line, and the Browns can generate a pass rush. However, even with its ability to get into the backfield, the production isn’t there in a secondary that dealt with Joe Burrow’s constant pushing and Lamar Jackson going off in one half.

The Dallas defense is more than happy to keep both teams in the game, and the team’s only win came on the Atlanta miracle, but it’s overdue for a solid performance.

It’s been a tense time after failing to come through against Seattle, turnovers have been a problem, and the offense isn’t going on long enough drives. However, the Cleveland won’t put the 500+ yards Seattle and Atlanta did over the last two weeks.

Week 4 Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews

NEXT: Seattle at Miami

2. Seattle at Miami

LINE: Seattle -5.5
ATS PICK: Seattle
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

You’re a wee bit worried about Seattle making the longest trip in the NFL, and you’re a lot worried that Miami had extra time off after getting rolling past Jacksonville last Thursday night.

Do you really think Ryan Fitzpatrick belongs up there with Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton as the next quarterback able to hit Seattle’s NFL-worst pass defense? Maybe, but it hasn’t mattered so far.

Seattle got ripped up and still easily got past a 5.5-point win against Atlanta and Dallas. Miami isn’t New England.

On the flip side, the Dolphin secondary has allowed over 650 passing yards in the last two weeks and gets bombed on for too many deep plays.

No one does deep plays like Russell Wilson.

Neither pass defense will do much, but Seattle can stop the run and Miami can’t.

NEXT: Minnesota at Houston

1. Minnesota at Houston

LINE: Houston -3.5
ATS PICK: Houston
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

Minnesota is 0-3.

It’s 0-3 because the offense turned it over six times in the last two games, the defense is the third-worst in the NFL in yards allowed, and everyone who tries to throw a forward pass against the secondary is having a whole lot of fun.

Houston is 0-3.

It’s 0-3 because it faced Kansas City in Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.

It’s hard to run the ball against those three teams, and it’s certainly no fun getting rolled in each of the three games, not covering in any of them.

The Houston run D is the worst in the NFL, Deshaun Watson hasn’t had any time to work, and …

Assume the Texans start to look a whole lot better once their playing a team that’s not among the odds-on leaders to win the Super Bowl.

Maybe Houston really is that bad. Maybe Minnesota is the one that should be catching a break now that it’s playing someone else who’s struggling.

Or maybe this is when Deshaun Watson and the Texan offense can finally open it up a little bit.

Week 4 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews 
Week 4 NFL Predictions, Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
Week 4 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL

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