What 5 NFL games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend?
NFL Playoffs Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Playoffs
– Wild Card Weekend Schedule, Predictions
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. Indianapolis at Buffalo
LINE: Buffalo -6.5
ATS PICK: Indianapolis
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
How Not To Start An Article Pumping Up The 5 Best NFL Playoff Picks …
This is a tough one to sell.
Buffalo has been amazing. It’s playing loose, it’s playing with swagger, and it’s playing like a team that’s on the ascension of something big as a 2 seed that in a just-and-right playoff system should be getting the week off.
From a rooting standpoint, you want this Buffalo team to win. It’s fun, it’s exciting, and the limited Bills Mafia in attendance will be going out of their collective minds.
Indianapolis isn’t just any 7 seed.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, in that same just-and-right playoff system the Colts aren’t even it it, but if they’re playing up to all of their capabilities, they become one awful matchup problem for these Bills.
In the NFC, New Orleans gets Chicago as the 7. The Colts really should be considered the 4th-to-5ish best team in the AFC.
The Buffalo running backs are fine and the rushing numbers are there, but the Colt D that hasn’t allowed more than 90 yards in five straight games.
The Indy pass defense isn’t totally awful, the offensive line is among the best in the league, Jonathan Taylor is rising up into superstar running back status, and Philip Rivers is a veteran who isn’t going to blink at the big game atmosphere and moment.
So forgive the lack of hard numbers, recent history, and data points to suggest that the Colts could hang within a touchdown of a Buffalo team that’s murdering everyone over the last six weeks.
Forgive the “feel” pick – the Colts keep this close. And if they don’t, all apologies, These other four picks should make up for it.
NEXT: Chicago at New Orleans point total
4. Chicago at New Orleans
LINE: Point Total 47
ATS PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For those familiar with our day jobs and the college side of this football world, we have a theory.
Always like the over when there’s a not-insane outside chance that one side might be able to hit it by itself – or at least get in the ballpark.
Has Chicago’s defense allowed 47 points yet this year? No, but it gave up 41 against Green Bay when that D got on the plane to go home early in Week 12.
Has the New Orleans offense scored over 47 points this year? Yeah, it hung up 52 on the Vikings a few weeks ago – but it’s not going to do that against the Bear D.
However, the Saints should have almost all of its parts back – more on that later – and the O should be able to take care of a bulk of the heavy lifting all on its own.
Yeah, it took overtime to get there, but the first meeting between these two got to 49. The Chicago offense is better this time around, the Saints aren’t going to stop scoring in a home playoff game, and considering four of the last five Bear games blew past 47, and two of the last three Saint games got it done, you’re fine.
NEXT: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
3. Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
LINE: Seattle -3
ATS PICK: Seattle
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Sometimes you have to make a pick because it’s the right thing to do.
You never, ever, ever, ever, ever go against a streak. If you go with it, and somehow things work the other way, you tip your cap and you move on. Otherwise, keep playing the streak until it stops.
Start with this – Seattle has won its last ten playoff home games going back to 2005.
Two problems with that, of course. The first is that it’s a straight up streak and not against the spread, and second, the whole 12th man, crowd-as-loud-as-sticking-your-head-in-a-jet-engine thing was a key part of it all. Neither of those things matter here.
However, what does matter is a Seattle team that made a few key tweaks and now seems to have figured out how to play a little bit of defense again. It was able to all but shut down the Rams a few weeks ago in a 20-9 win.
The other thing you like here is the line drop. Jared Goff was always going to play – at least, he might play, he should play, he could play – but his injured thumb caused the line to hang around Seahawks -5 for way too long, and then it dropped to -3. You’re getting a bargain mostly because of a video that showed Goff throwing without his hand falling off.
It’s this simple. Turnovers. Seattle is 0-4 this season when turning it over multiple times, and 12– when it doesn’t.
The Rams have forced two turnovers total in the last four games.
NEXT: Chicago at New Orleans
2. Chicago at New Orleans
LINE: New Orleans -10
ATS PICK: New Orleans
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s a thought that the Bears might just be plucky enough to make this a fight.
After all, they pushed hard in a 26-23 overtime New Orleans win back in Week 8 in a strange game. And that was Chicago football for most of the year.
Bad, but it somehow managed to keep enough games close over the first half of the season to be a god against the spread. There’s still a decent defense, the running game went from the worst in the NFL to now among the best over the last six weeks coming off a bye, and …
New Orleans is almost fully loaded.
It had its parts at times, but now Michael Thomas is really supposed to be back, the running backs return from living in the COVID protocol world, and while Drew Brees still doesn’t quite seem 100% – that, or he’s just freaking old now – he’s as close to okay as he’s going to get.
This has been a weird, rough, inconsistent and disjointed run for the Saints over the second half of the season, and yet since that win over the Bears, six of its seven wins – it went 7-2 before this – were by double-digits.
Yeah, but Chicago’s great run?
Uh huh … it beat Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Let’s just stop playing nice-nice – the Bears had one, one-point win over Tampa Bay this season, and that’s really about it.
There have only been three double-digit losses this season. One was to the Rams in LA and two were against the Packers, but …
The Saints at home – for whatever that means – as a ticked off 2 seed that should really be kicking back and relaxing right now instead of playing in this new gimmicky format – should be good enough to make it four, even though you do hate giving up double-digit points in the NFL Playoffs.
NEXT: Tampa Bay at Washington point total
1. Tampa Bay at Washington
LINE: Point Total 45
ATS PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The NFL Playoffs are obviously a whole different animal, and the perception is that defenses normally rule – if you’re picking one way or another – as teams tighten up, don’t take as many chances, and play to try to get through to the fourth quarter when it’s really on.
There’s also the theory that games are generally going to be closer in a good team vs. good team sort of way, but in this we have the all-timer of an anomaly.
We have a team that’s a let’s-just-say-curious coaching decision by Philadelphia away from probably ceding this spot to the Giants – oh, Nate Sudfeld, bless your heart. Washington has a losing record, and it’s the rare massive home playing underdog to a Tampa Bay team that’s rolling into the tournament.
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Wild Card Weekend
All you care about here is the under, and that’s where Washington helps you out in every possible way.
Start with an offense that doesn’t really score. It’s 30th in the NFL in total yards and 25th in points per game – it hasn’t scored more than 23 in five wins and only got over 27 once all season.
But the 45 is still a relatively reasonable number to hit, right?
No Washington game has come even close to getting there over the last five games and only two in the last 12 games. And why?
But the Football Team’s defense can ball.
Chase Young and the pass rush are great, the pass defense is fantastic, and the WFT D hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in its last seven games. This is the second-best defense in all of the NFL.
Tampa Bay’s isn’t No. 1 overall, but it’s the best in the league against the run, and Washington’s passing game is an issue.
Again, the Washington offense isn’t anything amazing, and now it goes against a Buccaneer defense that hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any of the last six games or in 11 of the last 12.
The worry here is Tom. Brady and the offense went off with 91 combined points over the last two weeks, but Atlanta and Detroit don’t play a lick of D.
Like Washington, love the defense, love the lack of an O, like the under.
