What 5 NFL games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread – and more – going into the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round?
NFL Playoffs Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Playoffs
– Divisional Round Weekend Schedule, Predictions
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. Los Angeles at Green Bay
LINE: Green Bay -4 (LA +250 ML)
MONEY LINE PICK: Los Angeles Money Line
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
We’re going to start out the fun with two contradictory picks.
Why? Value.
If – and it’s a giant IF considering No. 4 on this list – you believe in the Rams to hold up and pull off the upset against Green Bay, the +250 on the Money Line might be the best value shot for the stars this weekend.
Cleveland is a +365 against Kansas City, but that’s a much, much riskier play considering the Browns don’t do any one thing at a high enough level to take the shot.
The Rams can really, really play defense.
Again, this is only if you’re a believer in Los Angeles in the first place. If you like it to make a push at +6.5, then perhaps you’re ready to go one step further.
The Browns needed the Steelers to melt down to get to the KC game, but the Rams just played better than Seattle to make the trip to Green Bay.
Of course there are a whole lot of things to worry about – more on that in a moment – but this is the No. 1 defense in the NFL, it’s No. 1 in fewest points allowed, and it’s No. 1 against the pass after not allowing more than 200 yards in each of the last six games.
There’s a chance this Ram D is about to rise up and be just that good against a Green Bay offense that’s been a machine all year, but had problems against Tampa Bay when Aaron Rodgers got bounced around in Week 6.
However, with ALL that said …
NEXT: Los Angeles at Green Bay
4. Los Angeles at Green Bay
LINE: Green Bay -6.5
ATS PICK: Green Bay
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s going to snow all night in Green Bay, Wisconsin, because it’s January 15th going into January 16th, and that’s what the weather is supposed to do at this time of year in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
It’s supposed to be 34ish degrees and dropping at game time, because it’s Green Bay, Wisconsin, and it’s going to be January 16th.
Literally as I’m typing this, I got a text from a good friend in Santa Monica doing the opposite of humble bragging about it being 75 tonight where he is.
NFL players are among the toughest human beings on the planet, but if you’re not used to living the life in 30ish degrees, that’s a problem.
Aaron Rodgers and that Green Bay offense is an even bigger one.
There’s still the Ram quarterback issue. It’s either a Jared Goff with one hand, or it’s John Wolford who’s John Wolford. That’s another massive problem.
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Playoffs
The Green Bay run defense isn’t anything special, and Cam Akers and the Rams are going to try pounding away from the start. The LA defense is a killer and could take over the game for long stretches, and …
Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. He and the Packers have the tape from the Seattle game.
They’re sure to make the adjustments to get into a quicker rhythm and not rely on the 25-yard downfield plays to get the O moving, and unlike Seattle – who’s been okay-to-flatout-bad on third downs towards the end of the season – the offense is second in the NFL in third down conversions.
And it’s going to be really, really cold.
NEXT: Baltimore at Buffalo
3. Baltimore at Buffalo
LINE: Buffalo -2.5
ATS PICK: Buffalo
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Lamar Jackson still isn’t going to play in the snow.
That was the big concern all week before the Saturday night showdown – Jackson had never played in the white stuff before.
It’s not supposed to be snowing during game time in Orchard Park, but it’s going to be really, really cold. (Was going to write a line here about the Ravens playing a team that’s really, really hot, but I understandably would’ve lost you with that.)
It’s just 2.5.
– Divisional Round Weekend Schedule, Predictions
Yes, Baltimore is playing well, and yes, the defense figured out how to stall Tennessee and Derrick Henry last week. However, Buffalo doesn’t need the ball that all that long. It’s as efficient as anyone in the NFL at scoring when it gets its chances.
Baltimore’s defense is going to bring the house. The Buffalo coaching staff knows that, Josh Allen knows that, and everyone knows that because the Ravens have said all week that they’re going to keep up their attacking style that’s worked so well.
Allen should be able to get rid of the ball in a hurry, he’s got the legs to keep the offense moving – Buffalo leads the NFL in third down conversions – and all you’re reasonably asking for here is a win because the investment public is doing you a solid here.
No one likes the idea of picking all favorites, but Green Bay over LA, Kansas City over Cleveland, and New Orleans over Tampa Bay have been the prevailing picks both straight up and ATS. Money is coming in late on the underdogs in all three, but the Buffalo line has stayed at a field goal or less with so many liking the Ravens.
Remember, though, Tennessee doesn’t play a whole lot of defense and it held the Ravens down, outside of one big Jackson run. Buffalo does play D to go along with that O.
NEXT: Tampa Bay at New Orleans point total
2. Tampa Bay at New Orleans
LINE: New Orleans -3 (52 point total)
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is simply a straight call on the defenses.
Oh sure it’ll be about Tom Brady, and Drew Brees, and whose career is about to take a big turn after this, and who gets that showdown against Aaron Rodgers in the NFL Championship. But for all of the offensive firepower on both sides, they’re both about the D.
New Orleans is fourth in the NFL in total defense and fifth in scoring defense. It’s fantastic against the pass, better against the run, and it held TB12 and the Bucs to 23 points in the first game and three in the second.
The Saints went off in the two games scoring a combined 72 points thanks to all the big things set up by the defensive side. The Bucs, though, are No. 1 in the NFL against the run, have a good enough pass rush to pressure Brees more than they did in the first two games, and there’s going to be one massive edge to this group after the way the first two losses went down.
There’s reason for concern, though. Tampa Bay has scored 31 or more in each of its last four games, New Orleans can hit 30 without a problem, and let’s be honest here, everyone really wants to see these two quarterbacks put on a 45-42 show.
Expect this to be played in the 20s, or expect one of the two defenses to take over early on. And if that’s not the case, sit back, tip your cap, and enjoy all the points.
NEXT: Baltimore at Buffalo first half line
1. Baltimore at Buffalo
FIRST HALF LINE: Buffalo -1
ATS PICK: Buffalo
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, EVER mess with a streak.
If there’s some bizarre statistic that can help you out, and it doesn’t work, it’s not your fault – you’re dealing with forces beyond your control. But if you’re able to potentially ride a statistical wave, you do it.
Baltimore has been great in the first halves of games. It’s 6-3-1 at taking the lead at halftime over the last ten games, and it certainly has the defense and the quarterback to get out to a hot start and go into the locker room against Buffalo up.
The Bills were down 21-10 in the Week 5 loss to Tennessee, and were down 13-10 at halftime against Kansas City in the Week 6 loss.
Since then, your 2020 Buffalo Bills have been leading at halftime in each of the last 11 games, and on the year they’re 15-2 – with only those losses to the Titans and Chiefs as the outliers – after the first 30 minutes.
The halftime line is only Buffalo -1, and again, the team has been up at the half 15 times.
Again, if it doesn’t work, it’s not your fault.
