What appear to be the 5 best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the NFL Conference Championships?
NFL Playoffs Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– CFN Expert Picks: NFL Playoffs
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
It’s argued that this is the best Sunday of the season. Conference Championship Sunday has two Super Bowl-level matchups, it’s all about the anticipation of what’s next, and this time around, we get two special games with four amazing quarterbacks.
What are the five best-looking bets on the board? It’s all about finding the potential value, so when it comes to these – as opposed to our Picks Against The Spread pieces which just looks at the games themselves – it’s all about confirming or denying something you already believe, or maybe sparking an idea for something that just might work.
Again, value, value, value. It might be a long shot, but let’s start with …
5. Tampa Bay at Green Bay
LOWEST SCORING TEAM: Packers +400, Chiefs +325, Chiefs +325, Bills +200
PICK: Packers +400
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
As a warning, this pick goes against a whole lot of personal beliefs.
I believe Green Bay will win. I also believe that – and it’ll be a theme later in this – that the key to making these special types of investments is to take the most likely outcome that gives you value.
The most likely of the two outcomes in the two games is for the Bills to lose to the Chiefs. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay is a wee bit more of a toss-up – even though the lines are close to the same for both home teams – assuming Patrick Mahomes really is okay.
So the smart call here for the lowest scoring team of the four is Bills +200. There’s good value even if it’s the worst among the four teams.
Yes, Green Bay has been an offensive powerhouse and yes, it just hung up 32 on – statistically – the best defense in the NFL in the win over the Rams. However, maybe there’s a shot that Tampa Bay just has this Packer thing figured out.
It seems like it was a million years ago, but in Week 6 the Buccaneers held Green Bay to its lowest scoring game of the season in the 38-10 win. The Packers couldn’t keep the Tampa Bay D line from hitting Aaron Rodgers, with the high-powered O only coming up with 201 yards.
Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the NFL against the run, eighth in scoring defense, and it’s coming off a brilliant performance against the Saints in the 30-20 win.
Remember, this bet isn’t necessarily about one side shutting down another. It’s about winning first, and then hoping the other game is bit more of a shootout.
You can’t go wrong with believing that any of the four teams make sense for this, but the world is offering you a shot at +400 ….
NEXT: Two running backs hitting 40 yards
4. Two running backs each gaining 40+ yards, and they are …
LINE: Leonard Fournette and Darrel Williams each to record 40+ yards: +185
PICK: Yes
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
You’d like a little bit more to take this home – like around +225 would be nicer – but there’s a good shot this works out relatively well.
Is Ronald Jones really okay? He missed the Wild Card game against Washington, but came back to run for 62 yards against New Orleans. If he’s fine, he’s the featured back who hit Green Bay for 113 yards and two touchdowns the first time around. However, he’s dealing with a quad injury and might be on a bit of a pitch count.
Even with Jones having a big day against the Saints, Leonard Fournette came up with 63 yards – you just need 40.
He might have been lost a bit over the second half of the season, but his legs were seemingly being saved for the playoffs. It’s supposed to be cold, the snow should stop but will still be an issue, and the power of Fournette should work fine in the conditions against a Packer D that should allow over 100 yards on the ground.
For Darrel Williams, this is just a straight health play.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to give it a go with his hip and ankle injuries, but we’ve heard that before. Even if he does play he’s not going to be 100%. Le’Veon Bell? Nah – he’s not a factor even if he does play on an injured knee.
When Williams gets his carries, he produces. He ran ten times for 46 yards in Week 16 against Atlanta, and 13 times for 78 yards against Cleveland. No matter what, KC might try to run a wee bit more to take the pressure off of Patrick Mahomes, so …
If Fournette and Williams are the respective lead backs, you should get this.
NEXT: Highest Scoring Team
3. Buffalo at Kansas City
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM: Buccaneers +375, Bills +325, Packers +200, Chiefs +185
PICK: Chiefs +185
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s the same drill there was for the Lowest Scoring Team Pick, but not really.
If you like any one of these teams, go for it. The beauty here is the value with every selection, and you’re really going with a 50/50 shot – at least, in insane investment theory – if you think you have your winners picked out.
On this, the value is Tampa Bay. It put up 38 against Green Bay the first time, it’s going to be an interesting offensive fight, but the conditions are going to be a wee bit harrier than they will be for the AFC Championship.
While the call was for the Packers +400 for the lowest scoring team on just a straight value guess, here you’re going with the value on probability.
Assume the home teams that received an extra week off are more likely to win, and assume the NFC Championship could be a bit lower scoring considering Tampa Bay has the No. 1 run defense in football and Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in any of the last four games.
So if you’re sort of believe that the NFC will be a wee bit more defensive, then assume the winner of the AFC will the highest scoring team among the four.
Basically, you’re getting +185 worth of value that Kansas City will outscore Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and of course, Buffalo.
NEXT: Most Passing Yards By A QB
2. Most Passing Yards By A QB
MOST PASSING YARDS (just counting the four starters): Patrick Mahomes +180, Josh Allen +210, Tom Brady +350, Aaron Rodgers +350
PICK: Josh Allen +210
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Oh, but Tom Brady is SO tempting.
There’s no talking you out of it if you believe TB12 will finish with the most passing yards among the four starting quarterbacks. He’s been on a tear with well over 300 yards in three of the last five games, and the main reason he didn’t do much more than the 206 against New Orleans was because he didn’t have to.
Oh, but Aaron Rodgers is SO tempting.
There’s no talking you out of it if you believe the soon-to-be 2021 MVP. Actually, yeah there is. At least one of the four quarterbacks will throw for over 300 yards, and Rodgers hasn’t thrown for over three bills since the Week 11 win over Indianapolis. Tampa Bay has only allowed over 300 passing yards once since Week 12.
Oh, but Patrick Mahomes is SO tempting.
Look, if he’s playing he’s throwing. However, how much will he be bombing away and how much will the gameplan protect him? Also, he hasn’t thrown for more than 280 yards since Week 14 against Miami, and Kansas City games have been relatively low-scoring lately. Yeah, he was on fire against Cleveland before getting hurt, but …
Josh Allen is the call.
The Chief pass defense is solid, but it’s also about to get bombed on. Buffalo sort of has a running game it likes to piece together, but Kansas City was able to clog up the far stronger Cleveland rushing attack.
Allen only threw for 206 yards against Baltimore, but that was a far different type of game than this will be. He threw for 320 yards or more in four of the six games before that, and even if the Bills lose, he’s got the best shot to at least get to 300 yards. At +210, that’s decent value.
And finally …
NEXT: AFC Championship: Buffalo at Kansas City
1. AFC Championship: Buffalo at Kansas City
SPREAD: Kansas City -3
ATS PICK: Kansas City
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
In a go-with-your-first-answer sort of way, I really do like Buffalo to possibly pull off the upset or even do the near impossible and cover the +3 and lose.
But here’s the weird thing as of this writing – the line hasn’t moved.
1) The betting public always believed Patrick Mahomes was going to play, and the line went from -2.5 to open to 3 and stayed there, and/or 2) Mahomes doesn’t matter to the investors as much as it might appear and the money is coming in on Buffalo to keep the line where it is.
Either way, even if you like Buffalo – and again, I sort of do – the value on getting Kansas City -3 at home with Mahomes cleared to play is terrific. Put it this way – would you have blinked if the line went up to -4 or more after the news broke?
This should be a wee bit more of a defensive battle than everyone thinks, and despite the reputation, Kansas City isn’t blowing off anyone’s doors lately. It’s winning, but it hasn’t won a game by more than six points since Week 8 against the Jets.
And then came the first half against the Browns.
The Kansas City team that was waiting all throughout the second half of the year for the playoffs to begin played like it was let out of its cage. The offense marched down the field with ease and everything was fine with a 19-3 lead before Mahomes got hurt.
From every indication, No. 15 isn’t just past the concussion protocol, he’s totally fine. He practiced for most of the week, the bum toe shouldn’t be enough to screw him up, and Kansas City should be close to full go.
Buffalo is amazing – and I’m still unprofessionally going Bills just as a pure fan whose family is from there – but the original call was made based on Mahomes being iffy.
If you think Kansas City is going to win the AFC Championship at home, assume it’s going to be by three or more.
