What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Sweet 16?
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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Here are five NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games that appear to be a wee bit favorable against the spread or with the point total.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. (8) Loyola vs (12) Oregon State
POINT TOTAL: 125
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is all on principle.
If someone wants to give you a 125 college basketball point total, go over.
1) It’s just not that hard a number to hit, and 2) you don’t want to be known as that guy who goes under on a total so low.
The worry here, of course, is the Loyola defense with a week to rest up and get ready. How many times have the Ramblers allowed more than 60 points this season?
Five times in 30 games. That’s it. That’s ridiculous.
Not even the high-powered Illinois team with as much talent as anyone in college basketball could hit the 60 mark. Of course, to math this up, both teams have to get to at least 60 or one side has to rock to get past 125.
The Loyola-Illinois game got to 129.
Oregon State has gone dead-cold at times this year, scoring fewer than 60 points in six games, but one of those went over 125 and every other game out of the 31 went over the mark.
There’s also a wee bit of a worry over an Oregon State D that can keep this tight, or if the thees aren’t falling, and …
You’re not going to take the under on 125. That’s not how you roll.
NEXT: Baylor vs Villanova
4. (1) Baylor vs (5) Villanova
LINE: Baylor -7.5
ATS PICK: Baylor
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Here’s the problem with the NCAA Tournament – and forgive the broken record rant from previous pieces.
The North Texas first round win over Purdue was cute and all, but whenever you get a monster early upset seed-wise, you know there’s a 84-61 game to come. And that’s exactly what Villanova was gifted in the second round.
These aren’t the national championship-level Wildcats of past years. It’s an okay team, but it came into the tournament on a run of four losses in the last seven games, got the Winthrop and North Texas free-space games to get here, and now comes a Baylor team that appears to have found its mojo at just the right time.
Hartford was a tune-up and Wisconsin isn’t great, but after getting down early against the Badgers, Baylor roared from there in an easy blowout win.
This is a high-powered Bear team that can score fast and in a variety of ways. Villanova is good defensively, but it hasn’t seen anything like this.
How many times this year did Baylor not win by eight or more?
Five times in 26 games.
So if you like Baylor to win, like the 7.5.
NEXT: Gonzaga vs Creighton, Part 1
3. (1) Gonzaga vs (5) Creighton, Part 1
POINT TOTAL: 158
PICK: Over
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even if it doesn’t work out, you want nothing to do with this game if you take the under on the 158.
That’s a big number no matter what, but Gonzaga will take care of most of the heavy lifting on its own.
The Bulldogs score, and then they score some more, and then when their bench guys come in, they score. However, there’s a bit of a concern that they’ll keep scoring and it still won’t be enough – the Oklahoma game was 87-71, getting to 158 on the mark.
But you don’t care.
Gonzaga is more likely to hit 90 than it is 70.
Out of the 28 games so far this season, the Bulldogs didn’t get to 80 just three times and scored 90 or more in 16 games. It hung over 100 five times including a buck and some change against Kansas.
Creighton can throw a little bit of D out there, but it’s not winning this in any sort of a slugfest. If it’s able to pull this off, it’ll be because of the threes dropping in an up-and-down game with both teams trading big blows.
Assume at least 85 from Gonzaga, assume at least 70 from Creighton, and assume a late layup getting you over the top.
And, of course …
NEXT: Gonzaga vs Creighton, Part 2
2. (1) Gonzaga vs (5) Creighton, Part 2
LINE: Gonzaga -13.5
ATS PICK: Gonzaga
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
I’ve tried so hard to knock Creighton out of this tournament from the start.
UC Santa Barbara was my big call of this whole thing, and I was one missed layup away from getting it right.
I admittedly – and stupidly – picked Ohio out of spite in the next round, and it got dropkicked by 14 against the Bluejays.
So take all of this with a grain of salt, but I’m under the firm and unwavering belief that Gonzaga is awesome and Creighton really, really isn’t.
It’s a fine Bluejay team, and it’ll hit enough threes to avoid getting totally annihilated, but I can’t shake the 73-48 Big East Championship loss to Georgetown out of my head.
The team has firepower, but it takes something truly special to keep up with these Bulldogs, and Creighton doesn’t have it.
Put it this way. BYU did absolutely everything right a few weeks ago and only lost to the Bulldogs by ten.
Kansas, Iowa, West Virginia, and BYU twice. Those are the only teams that didn’t lose to Gonzaga by at least two touchdowns. Just assume that Creighton won’t get there, either.
NEXT: Arkansas vs Oral Roberts
1. (3) Arkansas vs (15) Oral Roberts
LINE: Arkansas -11.5
ATS PICK: Arkansas
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
I don’t care if Arkansas only beat the Golden Eagles by 11 in the first meeting back in December.
I don’t care if Oral Roberts is the most fun story of the tournament – Sister Jean is so a few years ago.
Being a college sports big-team snob is part of the handicapping brand, and where I come from, you don’t bring a 15-seed into my NCAA Tournament without being prepared to get obliterated by at least 20.
Of course Oral Roberts has been magnificent in wins over Ohio State and Florida teams that should’ve won easily, and didn’t. The Golden Eagles hit three after three after three, and …
Arkansas is 8-1 this year when the other side makes double-digit threes.
The Hogs have the offense to explode on an ORU defense that will struggle to not give up at least 80. Eventually, everything evens out in this tournament and reality sets in for the 15 seed.
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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