What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into first round on Saturday?
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Here are five NCAA Tournament first round Saturday games that appear to be a wee bit favorable against the spread.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. (1) Michigan vs (16) Texas Southern
LINE: Michigan -26
ATS PICK: Texas Southern
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The NCAA Tournament is obviously a whole separate thing from anything that happens during the regular season, but it’s still asking the world for something different and new to occur.
It’s not like Texas Southern didn’t play anyone. Yes, anything that happened in November shouldn’t really matter, but the Tigers lost to Washington State by four and wasn’t totally embarrassing in an 85-65 loss to Oklahoma State.
The key comp is Wyoming, an up-and-down, high-powered team that likes to get moving, and Texas Southern shocked the Cowboys 76-74 in Laramie.
I’m stalling here … it’s Michigan, it’s a 1 seed vs a 16, and it’s going to win by whatever point total it wants to. However …
The Wolverines didn’t beat anyone this year by more than 26, and Texas Southern didn’t lose to anyone this year by more than 26.
The Tigers’ worst loss was that 85-65 thing against Oklahoma State, and Michigan’s biggest win was by 25 over Minnesota.
Oh, you’ll have to sweat it out – Michigan will be up 30-10 in a hiccup – but if the anomaly happens, so be it.
NEXT: Iowa vs Grand Canyon
4. (2) Iowa vs (15) Grand Canyon
LINE: Iowa -14.5
ATS PICK: Grand Canyon
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
I can’t bring myself to pick the Antelopes outright.
I love this Bryce Drew-led team. It plays a nasty brand of defense, it rebounds everything with the 7-0 Asbjorn Midtgaard from Denmark and 6-10 Alessandro Lever from Italy gobbling everything up, and it’s not going to get pushed around by that statistically-amazing but lumbering Luke Garza.
Iowa has the scoring pop to do what it wants inside and out, and it’s just good enough to get by and overcome the defensive pressure with a few big scoring bursts, but this Grand Canyon team beat Nevada, pushed Arizona State, and it’s biggest loss this year was by ten against Colorado.
No. 2 in the nation in field goal defense and No. 5 in rebounding margin, the Antelopes keep this thing to under two touchdowns.
NEXT: Creighton vs UC Santa Barbara
3. (5) Creighton vs (12) UC Santa Barbara
LINE: Creighton -7
ATS PICK: UC Santa Barbara
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
To paraphrase the note under the rock, if I’ve come this far, maybe I’m willing to go a little further.
I’m a Power Five-level, blue-blood program, higher-seeded snob.
I want the little guys to get a t-shirt, enjoy the trip to the greater Indianapolis metropolitan area, and then go on about their lives so the monster matchups can happen in the rest of the tournament.
Of course it can’t be all chalk. There has to be a big upset moment somewhere.
UC Santa Barbara has the right mix. There’s a good blend of size up front and attacking guards who play a suffocating brand of D. The three point defense is good enough, and the team doesn’t make the types of mistakes that will screw things up the clutch.
And the Gauchos are fantastic on the free throw line.
Creighton ended the season rocky, getting blown out by Georgetown in the Big East Championship and losing three of their last six – and with Butler two of those three wins. UC Santa Barbara won five straight and 19 of its last 20.
I’m a believer in the Gauchos winning outright, and I’ll happily take the seven if you’re giving them.
NEXT: Alabama vs Iona
2. (2) Alabama vs (15) Iona
LINE: Alabama -17
ATS PICK: Alabama
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
History and all, Rick Pitino is a basketball coaching genius.
You NASCAR this and make everything uniform and even in this tournament talent-wise, take Pitino and take your chances.
But he doesn’t have the talent on his Gaels, and he’s been able to maximize everything he can out of this team.
Iona had the longest breaks of anyone in the tournament, missing the a few weeks at the end of February and early March before winning the MAAC Tournament, and that’s after missing all of January and the first part of February. The legs are going to be there after playing just 17 games, and …
Seton Hall 86, Iona 64. It was all the way back in late November, but that’s the one brand-name team the Gaels played, and they got rocked in the second half.
And that’s sort of what’s about to happen here.
They’ll keep up with Bama, and Twitter will put them in the Final Four after seven minutes, they don’t shoot threes and Alabama will keep firing away.
The Tide will go on the run that Iona won’t have the ability to do.
The 17 Bama is giving away might seem like a lot, but they’ve won nine times this year by that many or more. They’ll pull away late.
Speaking of plucky teams from New York …
NEXT: LSU vs St. Bonaventure
1. (8) LSU vs (9) St. Bonaventure
LINE: LSU -1.5
ATS PICK: LSU
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Most of my family is from upstate New York with several members graduating from Canisius, so disliking St. Bonaventure is ingrained in the DNA.
I have no such issues with the Bonnies.
They’re tough as nails defensively, have enough size to matter up front, and they’re the darling pick by those looking for some team to take to feel better about picking big-name higher seeds everywhere else.
They’re best win this season is against VCU, twice. That’s nice and all against a 10-seed in the tournament, there’s just enough missing to make that 1.5 point spread feel very, very skimpy.
It’s not like LSU is bad, and it’s not like it’s limping. It lost the SEC Championship to Alabama by one, won four straight before that, and was playing good enough to think it could make some noise in this thing.
St. Bonaventure doesn’t do much to take the ball away and force mistakes, it doesn’t take a lot of three, it doesn’t get to the free throw line, and it’s just okay on the boards. The offensive pop isn’t there to keep up with the Tigers if and when they get on any sort of a roll.
Really, it comes down to this. You’re getting a team that almost won the SEC Championship +1.5 against a team that didn’t really prove it could beat anyone this year.
It’s okay to go full elitist sometimes.
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Every Game Preview & Prediction
– CFN Expert Picks: Every First Round Game
