What five college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Championship Week
Championship Week Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– Schedule, Times, Lines, Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– CFN Expert Picks & Predictions: College
– Week 15 Expert Picks & Predictions: NFL
Results So Far ATS: 80-62
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
LINE: Oklahoma -5
ATS PICK: Oklahoma
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Take this with a grain of salt, because this is 63% hard analysis belief that Oklahoma is going to win this, and 35% You Never Ever Mess With History, and 2% Pac-12 Championship.
USC should’ve and could’ve won and covered that home Pac-12 Championship against Oregon, and juuuuuust as I was going to pick the Ducks under the belief that the program was due this year to come up with something special, I ignored feelings and gut and went with USC.
Never go with your feelings and gut, but yeah, you’ve been warned that part of this pick has nothing to do with logic and reason.
And that goes for assuming that history matters here – as if the 18-to-23-year-old guys on the field care a lick about what happened yesterday much less over the last ten years, much less in the 1890s.
Iowa State has never won an outright conference championship in over 100 yards of playing college football.
Oklahoma is going for its gajillionth outright conference title – it has taken down ten of the last 14 Big 12 championship games.
Never, ever, ever screw with a streak. It it gets broken, you tip your cap, and you go on about your day.
Enough with the tomfoolery …
Oklahoma didn’t have RB Rhamondre Stevenson in the first meeting. He’s a hammer with fresh legs to combine in a rotation against a terrific Iowa State run defense that allowed 114 yards the first time around.
Oklahoma have DE Ronnie Perkins in the first meeting, either. He has only played in four of the team’s nine games and he’s still third on the team in sacks and tackles for loss.
Also, this is a relatively young Sooner team in several spots. QB Spencer Rattler has been better and more settled as the season has gone on, four of the top five pass catchers are underclassmen, and the offense appears to be past the turnover problems of the first part of the year.
This is a terrific Iowa State team – it really would be awesome for the fan base if it won – but it’s Oklahoma in a Big 12 Championship.
NEXT: Minnesota at Wisconsin
4. Minnesota at Wisconsin
LINE: Wisconsin -12.5
ATS PICK: Minnesota
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Full disclosure, I grew up in Minneapolis around the University of Minnesota, and I went to Wisconsin. I’m way, way past the fanboy thing when it comes to college football, but yeah, I’m fired up when these two play the Paul Bunyan Axe game.
Everyone says their respective rivalry game matters. This one really does to both of these programs, and it’s a great thing that it’s back on as the season-maker for the winner.
First of all, not that you asked, but the under on the 47.5 might be a lock – and this plays into the ATS pick.
Until Wisconsin proves it can score again, assume it can’t.
Until Wisconsin’s defense isn’t No. 1 in the nation, assume it still is.
The problems with the Badger offense haven’t suddenly changed over the last few weeks. The receiving corps is still banged up, RB Jalen Berger missed the Iowa game, and the offense that ripped Illinois and Michigan to shreds went bye-bye a long time ago.
Minnesota’s defense isn’t anything special, but it’s decent enough to not be totally gouged. The issue, though, ATS, is that it’s going to be up to a shockingly mediocre passing game to get things going against the Badger defensive front – star RB Mohamed Ibrahim should be in for a long day.
The 12.5 is just too much to give away to a team that scored 20 points total over the last three games. Wisconsin wins, but the O doesn’t all of a sudden find its groove again.
NEXT: Ole Miss at LSU
3. Ole Miss at LSU
LINE: Ole Miss -1
ATS PICK: Ole Miss
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
It’s only -1.
LSU has been a massive disappointment, but even with all the personnel losses that keep on coming, the team is playing just fine.
It battled hard against a strong Texas A&M team on the road, but the offense didn’t work.
It shocked Florida in Gainesville, but the defense didn’t work.
The Tigers are going to be happy to be back in Death Valley after going on the road in four of the last five games and six of the last eight, but that doesn’t really matter.
Yes, Ole Miss has won three straight, but beating Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Mississippi State is no big whoop, and the team still has the league’s worst defense that’s struggling in all areas.
How do you want to move the ball? It’ll probably work.
However, even with the shocking victory at Florida, the problems are still there for LSU. The defense has allowed well over 1,200 yards of offense over the last two games, and now it gets the offense that managed to put up over 1,900 yards in its last three games.
Ole Miss lost to Auburn – and caught a bad break in that – Florida, Alabama and with a bad performance against Arkansas. It’s going to crank up the O in a shootout, and it’ll be steadier than LSU’s attack.
And, again, it’s only -1.
NEXT: Texas A&M at Tennessee
2. Texas A&M at Tennessee
LINE: Texas A&M -14
ATS PICK: Texas A&M
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Let’s put it this way – Texas A&M needs to win this by more than 14.
It’s going to be an interesting Saturday morning.
The Big 12 and Big Ten championships start at noon, but neither one of those have that much to do with the College Football Playoff – unless Ohio State loses to Northwestern, or if the Big 12 Championship is a total wipeout.
Let’s assume, though, that the Big 12 champion can’t get over the hump and Ohio State wins. Let’s also assume that Alabama takes out Florida in the SEC Championship.
The ACC Championship stated at 4:00 ET – after Texas A&M and Tennessee will be done. If Texas A&M loses, or if it isn’t all that impressive, this is probably done, and there’s no real College Football Playoff drama …
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State, in some order.
However, if Texas A&M destroys Tennessee and looks the part, and Notre Dame beats Clemson, there’s going to be a very, very strong argument for the Aggies since they only have one loss and Clemson will have already proven it’s not better than Notre Dame. Even weirder will be if Clemson annihilates the Irish, then it would be a Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame fight in that committee room for the fourth spot.
Basically, there aren’t enough style points available for Texas A&M to come up with.
Tennessee was able to come up with a heartbreaking – at least to the investment crowd – late score against Florida, it lost by 13 to Auburn, and it’s coming off a blowout win over Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M’s defense has the ability to shut down the middling Vol offense cold, the running game should work even though Tennessee has been solid on the defensive front over the last few games, and …
There won’t be any style points, because that’s not what Texas A&M does. However, it’ll pull away early and get a big game out of the D to cover the 14.
NEXT: Ohio State vs Northwestern
1. Ohio State vs Northwestern
LINE: Ohio State -19
ATS PICK: Ohio State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Wisconsin looked like it was going to pull off the shocker last year.
Everything worked perfectly in the first half of the 2019 Big Ten Championship, and then … 34-21 Ohio State.
Northwestern was tough against the Buckeyes in the 2018 Big Ten Championship. The defense hung around against the high-powered attack, it was a good, hard battle, and then … 45-24 Ohio State.
This year’s version of Ohio State has a massive chip on its shoulder because it’s being doubted, and rightly so.
It has one win over a team that’s going to finish with a winning record, and that was at home to an Indiana team that bombed away for close to 500 passing yards.
Oooooh, you beat Michigan State. Oooooh, you beat Nebraska, and Penn State and Rutgers.
It took the Big Ten to change the rules just to get the Buckeyes this spot, it’s the College Football Playoff’s darling because of the eye test against mediocre teams – and Indiana – and probably isn’t in the top four if the brand name was, say, Purdue, and …
The Buckeyes are very, very good.
There’s no real fear of being left out of the CFP with a win – any win.
The committee isn’t going to pick a Big 12 champion, or Cincinnati, or Texas A&M over an unbeaten Big Ten champion Ohio State, however, this team appears to have the attitude that it doesn’t want to leave any doubt.
Justin Fields and the Buckeye offense get all the love and respect, but the defense is going to show up with a major attitude against a middling Northwestern O. As long as Ohio State doesn’t start turning the ball over, getting the win shouldn’t be a problem.
This team will want to cement a spot other than the 4 so it’ll get the Rose Bowl.
Northwestern will be its usual plucky self, and it’ll have a few moments when it looks like it could possibly pull off the shocker, and then …
Ohio State by more than 19.
