Sometimes you need to take a week off. That happened here last week. There was no feel for the board. It’s a good thing it was a week off because everything I thought was good ended up being bad. That’s how this works.
For Week 4, we are using a tried and true method of taking into account if a team really needs to win or not. It happened on Thursday night. The Eagles needed a win if they wanted to keep pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East. Falling to 1-3 could have hurt their playoff chances as a whole. The Eagles went out and beat a formerly undefeated Packers team at Lambeau Field. If a team is good, and they stumbled out of the gates, it’s time to take the points if you can get them.
For the newcomers, this isn’t a normal betting article. I won’t pick every game. I will actually use over/unders for game totals and team totals. I’ll throw in a prop bet if it’s interesting and on the board. I will definitely throw in teasers and parlays.
A quick reminder on teasers: On two-team teasers we get six points to play with. Let’s use completely hypothetical Pittsburgh v. Cleveland line that is listed Pittsburgh -9, and an Atlanta v. Tampa Bay line that is listed Atlanta – 7 as an example. That means we can move that line six points either way — so Steelers -3 or Cleveland +15. To do so we must move another line as well. In this case, our teaser bet is Pittsburgh -3 and Atlanta -1. We must win both bets. Meaning if Pittsburgh were to win by three — a push — we’d lose. If Atlanta wins by one, same thing. We must win each side. Teaser bets are also known as sucker’s bets because they are actually pretty difficult to hit. Everyone puts money on it thinking it’s an easy win and then they lose. We have crumpled betting tickets in our hands and maybe we use them to wipe the tears. Teasers come in the six-point, 10-point, and 14-point variety. We can do three-team six-point teasers for better odds. We will always explain it.
Here’s my normal caveat: please, please ease into the first weeks — if you’re hypothetically betting on games. Teams can surprise you. Teams will disappoint you. It’s tough to get a good handle on the NFL until at least five to six weeks into the season. Find out what teams you like and what teams you don’t like and stick to it. By the middle of the season, Las Vegas will have adjusted and there won’t be a chance to sneak in some value here and there.
And remember, this is just for fun. Because watching football is supposed to be fun. Alright, let’s get started.
Home teams in CAPS, odds, as always, lines used are the mode listed here. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Six-Point Two-Team Teaser
New England Patriots -1 over BUFFALO BILLS
Kansas City Chiefs -.5 over DETROIT LIONS
Yes, we are starting out with an AFC powerhouse teaser. Both teams are away which makes this a bit scarier than a normal teaser, but sometimes you have to take those risks and be a hero. It’s almost too obvious which should scream to any bettor to not do this.
We are doing it anyway. The Bills have faced the Jets, Giants and Bengals. Yes, the Patriots haven’t exactly faced a murderers row, but the Patriots have absolutely owned the Bills in the Brady era. TB12 is 30-3 against the Bills in his career. Expect this game to be low scoring with two very good defensive teams. If Julian Edelman is out of the game due to injury, I reserve the right to change this bet.
As for the Bills offense, Josh Allen has been just okay no matter what his stats say. He’s completing more passes but he’s also turning the ball over at a high rate. He’s still struggling with putting any type of touch on short passes. The Patriots defensive backfield presents a whole new challenge to the young quarterback. Bills Mafia will be at full throat, but we are only taking the Patriots to win here.
As for the Chiefs-Lions game, it’s a question of whether we think the Lions can keep up with the Kansas City offense. From what we know this season, that’s not possible. The Chiefs continue to roll in the early season. Betting on an Andy Reid team in September is easy money.
Cleveland Browns +7 over BALTIMORE RAVENS
This makes no sense. The Ravens have been playing very well and the Browns have not. Remember though, the Browns are a desperate team right now. They have to win this game. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier and falling behind the Ravens anymore than they already are isn’t in their best interest.
I’m not saying the Browns will win this game, but seven points is a nice amount to take. The public won’t be all over the Browns because the last few times they saw them on national television, they haven’t played well. It’s a bit of spread inflation.
Plus, the Ravens defense isn’t the Ravens defense of old. They let the Cardinals gain way too many yards on them a few weeks ago. Kyler Murray moved up and down the field. The Browns will fix things here and cover the spread.
ATLANTA FALCONS -3 (-135) over Tennessee Titans
We are buying the half-point to cover the push which means we have to put up a little more money.
That’s fine. The Falcons need this game. I know I can’t quit Atlanta when it comes to betting on them, but this game is a must-win for them. It’s a must-win for the Titans as well. It’s a loser leaves town.
So take the home team. Three points are the standard amount a home gets when spreads are set. This bet reflects the belief that Matt Ryan is better than Marcus Mariota.
The Falcons running game — or lack thereof — is the only real concern. The Titans offense can’t do much and if Atlanta makes Tennessee pass to win, the Titans could be in trouble.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 over DENVER BRONCOS
The Gardner Minshew bandwagon is absolutely packed at this point. The Jaguars won’t have Jalen Ramsey as he will be out due to the impending birth of his daughter.
Here’s why I think that won’t matter. The Broncos offensive line isn’t good and they’ll be dealing with a Jaguars defensive line that is good. For some reason, the Denver defense can’t generate pressure. They have zero sacks this season. That’s what Vic Fangio was supposed to bring in. He was supposed to help the Denver defense wreak havoc. They have not done so.
The Broncos offense has actually been pretty good between the twenties. The problem is they are bad when they get in the red zone and last time I checked the point of football was to score touchdowns. They don’t have an explosive offense either. Those things don’t go together.
This game will be close. The Broncos may very well win. They just won’t win by more than three points.
Six-Point Two-Team Teaser
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 over Oakland Raiders
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 over Chicago Bears
I almost picked the Colts -7 at home against the Raiders. It’s pretty simple when it comes to Oakland. Take them if they are getting points at home. Hammer the other side if they are on the road. Derek Carr has been what we’ve expected this season and that’s overall a mediocre quarterback. The young defense will struggle the rest of the year.
The Colts are solid. It’s the only way to describe them. They won’t wow you. They are deep and young and talented. Jacoby Brissett has been a great steward of the offense. Marlon Mack has been one of the better backs in the league. The only thing that’s scary is that the Colts probably won’t have T.Y. Hilton. That’s why seven points are too much, but one point is not.
The Vikings over Bears pick is strictly because neither of these offenses will be able to move the ball against the opposing defenses. In fact, a Vikings-Under tease may be a good bet.
2019 Record: 3-5
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
