The 49ers’ playoff scenarios simplified tremendously Monday when the Green Bay Packers knocked off the Minnesota Vikings 23-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium.
San Francisco was in a position to land at either the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 5 or No. 6 seed in Week 17 depending on how the rest of the week’s action shook out, and their position was based on the outcome of multiple games.
Now the scenarios are much simpler.
Here is the NFC playoff picture after Week 17:
1. 49ers (12-3)
2. Packers (12-3)
3. Saints (12-3)
4. Eagles (8-7)
5. Seahawks (11-4)
6. Vikings (10-5)
The 49ers get the No. 1 seed with a win over the Seahawks on Sunday. That’s the best-case scenario for San Francisco, which would get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They get the No. 5 seed with a loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. That means the 49ers go on the road wild card weekend to the winner of the NFC East. That’s either Dallas or Philadelphia depending on how their games go. The Eagles lock up the division with a win over the Giants. The Cowboys need a win over Washington and an Eagles loss to steal the NFC East crown.
Those are the two likeliest scenarios for the 49ers, and there’s no scenario where they finish lower than fifth.
Things get messy if the 49ers and Seahawks tie in Week 17, which is not an entirely outlandish situation considering the teams went to the final seconds of overtime in their Week 10 meeting.
If San Francisco and Seattle tie, the 49ers win the NFC West at 12-3-1.
That puts them at the No. 3 seed provided Green Bay and New Orleans both win. The Packers visit the Lions, while the Saints are in Carolina. If one of the two teams lose, the 49ers jump to the No. 2 seed. If both teams lose, the 49ers jump back to No. 1.
Getting the No. 3 seed means the 49ers host a wild card game against the No. 6 seed, which belongs to the Vikings no matter the outcome of their matchup with the Bears.
It’s still a little messy if the 49ers and Seahawks tie, but the more likely outcome of a win or loss makes San Francisco’s playoff future much clearer.
