Sunday’s Week 15 showdown between the 49ers and Falcons has big-time playoff implications, but that’s not apparent based on the point spread. Tipico Sportsbook has San Francisco favored by 9.5 points at home against a 6-7 Atlanta team that would pass the 49ers in the standings with a win.
However, a deeper look at the Falcons beyond their record shows a team the 49ers should beat by a couple scores. While Atlanta has six wins, none of them have come against a team that’s above .500. Their strength of victory (the winning percentage of teams they’ve beat) is .333 – second-worst in the league behind the Bears at .308.
Atlanta has wins over the Jets, Giants, Jaguars and Panthers. They beat the Saints in the game Jameis Winston got hurt, and they knocked off the Dolphins during Miami’s 1-6 start. The Falcons rank No. 26 in offensive points and No. 24 in total yards. Defensively they’re No. 28 in points and No. 25 in yards.
Football Outsiders ranks them dead last in total DVOA thanks to the 30th-ranked offense, 29th-ranked defense and 30th-ranked special teams. They are not a very good team.
While the 49ers have had their struggles, they’ve righted the ship lately and look much closer to the team they expected to be when the season started. If San Francisco continues generating takeaways on defense and not committing turnovers on offense, they should run away with this one, making the 9.5-point spread look a lot more reasonable.
