With an uncertain economy and tariffs already affecting the prices of goods from overseas, many Americans intend to reduce spending for holiday shopping. According to the Wunderkind U.S. Tariffs: Consumer Impact Survey Series, 32% of Americans expect to spend less this year.
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While many tariffs are currently in place, the U.S. Treasury may have to refund tariff money to U.S. businesses if the Supreme Court rules that many of the current tariffs are illegal. This could put a stop to tariffs just in time for the holiday season. But how could it impact your holiday shopping?
A Possible Slight Change in Prices
Will this affect prices in stores in time for the holidays? Most likely not in any noticeable way, according to experts.
“If tariffs are reversed before the holidays, you can expect that prices will be reduced, but not drastically. Stores still have inventory that initially cost them more to stock because of the tariffs,” said Melanie Musson, finance expert at Clearsurance.com. “Any benefit would take a considerable amount of time to be fully realized. A small improvement could happen before holiday shopping, but don’t expect drastically more affordable goods.”
However, in the short term, there might be more downsides than upsides to tariff refunds.
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Interest Rates Could Rise
If you plan to put many of your holiday purchases on credit cards, with an intention to pay them off later — maybe even with your tax refund in April — you could end up spending much more than you planned.
If the U.S. Treasury has to refund billions of dollars to U.S. businesses, that money has to come from somewhere. According to CNN, tariff money enabled the U.S. Treasury to borrow less than it normally would have to pay its bills. Without that tariff revenue, the Treasury might sell more bonds, which would lower bond prices, increase yields and, potentially, raise interest rates.
Inflation Could Increase Again
On the other hand, if President Donald Trump insists the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low, it could spark inflation. “During the Biden administration, huge budget deficits plus loose monetary policies unleashed the inflation genie,” Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNN.
Even with the tariff money, the budget deficit remains high, and refunding tariffs would increase the deficit.
You May Be Able To Purchase Foreign Goods Online More Easily
However, there is one potential bright side if tariffs are halted. As of Aug. 29, 2025, de minimis exemptions for goods under $800 imported from other countries were eliminated. This led to higher tariffs on imported goods to consumers, along with shipping delays.
If these tariffs were eliminated, consumers could potentially order items from overseas and have them shipped in time for the holidays.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 4 Ways Your Holiday Shopping Could Be Affected If the US Has To Pay Back Tariffs
