The New England Patriots have long coveted prospects from Alabama. Coach Nick Saban runs his program in ways similar to Bill Belichick’s approach in New England. And because of that, players like linebacker Dont’a Hightower have excelled with the Patriots, in part because Saban prepares them for Belichick. There have been exceptions (cornerback Cyrus Jones), but the Patriots tend to have success working with Crimson Tide alumni.
So as the Patriots eye quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft after the departure of Tom Brady, the team may just have interest in Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has long been touted as a prospect who might land in the top three picks. But perhaps, he’ll slip. Why? He’s dealing with a hip injury that might scare off teams, particularly amid the coronavirus pandemic when they may not be able to get their own doctors to take a look at Tagovailoa. But there’s also negative buzz about his Xs and Os work and his interviews. Maybe it’s smokescreens. Maybe not. But we figured we’d consider how much the Patriots would have to give to move into range of drafting Tagovailoa — if only to entertain the thought experiment.
Here are four scenarios with estimates on what each move would cost. We’ll work our way up the draft board, starting with a move up to 17th and finishing with a move up to fourth overall.
Trading to 17th overall | Trading to 10th overall | Trading to 5th overall | Trading to 4th overall
Trading to 17th overall
Patriots get: 17th overall
Cowboys get: 23rd overall, 99th overall (third round) and 100th overall (third round)
The Patriots could also offer a 2021 second-round pick, rather than offering Nos. 99 and 100. Though, the Patriots have three picks in the third round, and would probably prefer not to mortgage a future asset when they have plenty in this draft.
If New England wants Tua, this Cowboys’ slot could appeal because it helps the Patriots jump in front of three potentially quarterback-needy teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars (20th), the Las Vegas Raiders (19th) and the Miami Dolphins (18th). They’re all slated to select twice before the Patriots pick, but perhaps they’d be interested in grabbing Tua with their second selection if he slides to them. So the Patriots intercept him — and for a humble haul. Considering his potential, this scenario would feel like a steal.
Trading to No. 10 overall
Patriots get: 10th overall
Browns get: 23rd overall and a 2021 first-round pick
If the Patriots could, they’d trade to 11th overall to get ahead of the Raiders. But alas, that’s where the New York Jets are picking. If they got wind that Belichick was trading up to draft Tagovailoa, they’ll probably do everything they could to avoid that deal. This trade would do the trick, getting the Patriots ahead of Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden. It’s possible they’re not interested in Tua, considering they signed Marcus Mariota to compete with Derek Carr this offseason. But if Tua slides to 12, maybe they think they’ll have their quarterback of the future when they want to move on from both veterans.
A future first-round pick is a big bid for New England. But how else would it entice the Browns to move so far down the board? Another offer: 99th overall, 100th overall and a 2021 second-rounder. But for that deal to take place, Cleveland would have to think they’re getting, to some degree, nearly as strong a prospect at 23rd as they’d get at No. 10. Some drafts are that deep. Is this one? Probably not. So the Patriots are forced to put that 2021 first-rounder on the table.
Trading to No. 5 overall
Patriots get: 5th overall
Dolphins get: 23rd overall, 87th overall (third round), 99th overall (third round), 125th overall (fourth round), a 2021 first-rounder and a 2021 second-rounder
This is a tricky one. The Patriots have a good relationship with coach Brian Flores, who was the linebackers coach and defensive play-caller for New England in 2018. But the Patriots aren’t as tight with GM Chris Grier. Would the Dolphins, an AFC East rival, really facilitate a trade to help the Patriots get a franchise quarterback? My first instinct: No. But if the Dolphins truly don’t want Tua, maybe they’ll bite at this deal. And that’s why — from a points standpoint — this looks like an overpay.
New England would target this draft slot to get ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers (6th), Carolina Panthers (7th) and the Jaguars (9th).
Trading to No. 4 overall
Patriots get: 5th overall
Giants get: 23rd overall, 87th overall (third round), 99th overall (third round), 125th overall (fourth round), a 2021 first-rounder and a 2021 second-rounder
Yes, this is the exact same deal as the previous one with the Dolphins. I imagine the Giants would be more open to a trade with New England. If the Dolphins want Tua, the Patriots would probably have to engage in a bidding war — and it’d be one New England probably loses, considering the Giants would have to drop to 23rd overall by taking a deal with the Patriots. But this haul — especially if it ends up getting sweeter than the proposed deal above — might end up being too sweet to give up. If the Patriots wanted to sweeten their bid, they could add their third third-round pick in 2020 (100th) or they could throw in a 2021 third-rounder. After all, one prospect won’t solve New York’s talent issues. They may be interested in trying to take a patient approach in their rebuild. If they didn’t want to slip down the board, the Patriots could consider this deal, involving San Francisco.
Patriots get: 5th overall
Giants get: 13th overall (from 49ers), the Patriots’ 87th overall pick and the Patriots’ 2021 first-rounder
49ers get: 23rd overall (from Patriots), a 2021 second-rounder and the Patriots’ 99th overall pick.
A three-team trade? Sounds crazy. But Belichick is just the evil genius to make it work. He has a good relationship with the 49ers after the Jimmy Garoppolo trade and he has friends in the Giants’ building. It’s a far-fetched proposition, no doubt. But maybe it’s so crazy it just might work.
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