Fantasy football draft season is in swing as we approach the third NFL preseason game, so it’s time to check in on how owners are valuing certain names.
Thanks to average draft position (ADP), we can tell who’s going too high and too low. In this post we’ll be taking a look at running backs who are being overvalued by drafters, which means you can take advantage by either avoiding them entirely or waiting to see if they drop to the point where you can take them at the right moment in your draft.
Here are a few names whose ADP (thanks to Fantasy Pros) feels a little too high:
1. Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets
Taking risky players in fantasy football is part of how the game is won. But taking someone with this much risk at the top of the first round? It’s too much for me. He’s running behind an iffy line and with a still-developing Sam Darnold at quarterback.
2. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
He was on my do not draft list, but let’s say you believe that he’ll stay healthy enough this season and be the preferred back in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson and perhaps Malcolm Brown. Does that make him worth a late first or early second round pick? I say no.
3. Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
I still think he will be very much fantasy relevant. But he’s being taken 26th overall in drafts, ahead of names like Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson, and there’s rookie Darwin Thompson — on our list of RBs being taken too low — looming along with Carlos Hyde around (if he’s not cut). I would absolutely draft Williams if he drops lower than this.
4. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Which camp are you in? The one that saw Henry disappoint in his first two seasons? Or the one that believed his final four games of 2018 (including that 238-yard, four-touchdown performance on a Thursday night last December) proved he was finally breaking out? As you can see, I’m in the former group. Despite the offensive line talent, I need a bigger sample size to be a believer, and Dion Lewis is still in a Titans uniform. At 39th overall and RB21, there are other names there I’d rather have.
