If you’ve heard me rant about this before on this website, you’re correct. I did it in 2020 and back in 2017
Yet every year, I see the same thing happen: Someone in your fantasy football league uses a top-30 pick on the top quarterback, feeling like there’s certainty that the big-name QB will repeat what he did last year.
I’m here to tell you: That’s just not the case.
Sure, the QB landscape in fantasy has changed. No longer is it mostly old-school pocket passers who you can set and forget week to week. The top guys almost all provide additional points with their legs, too.
But I’m still telling you not to draft Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes where they’re ranked. Here’s why:
1
Quarterback is mega-deep
As far as positions go, you can get a great QB far down.
Would you guess that Dak Prescott — who threw for 4,449 yards, 37 TDs, 10 INTs and 146 yards on the gound — is the 10th-ranked quarterback this year, per FantasyPros’ consensus rankings?
Did you know Tom Brady — you know him, the guy who led the league in yards passing and touchdowns — is No. 8? Yes, he doesn’t run like others in front of him, but c’mon!
Kirk Cousins? Who has Justin Jefferson? Who keeps putting together top-12 seasons in fantasy despite all the jokes about his real-world mediocrity? He can be had so late.
You get my point.
2
The difference between the best and the next-best is nothing
Sort of a Point B to my Point A above.
Josh Allen scored 402.58 fantasy points last year, per ESPN.
Jalen Hurts, who finished QB9, and who I really like this year, scored 312.16, for a difference of 90.42.
Divide that by the 16 games we play in fantasy and that’s about 5.6 points more per game that Allen scored. Which is … not much.
For comparison’s sake: The difference between RB1 (Jonathan Taylor) and RB9 (Cordarrelle Patterson) in PPR scoring is about 138 points.
Which brings me to my next point:
3
Early-round RBs and WRs (and maybe TEs?) are more valuable
The running back position has been decimated to the point where you want to throw as many darts as possible to maximize value.
The three-down back is a unicorn at this point, and most of those are gone by the end of Round 1.
Wide receiver might be deeper than that, but there’s a drop-off in consistency about the time that Allen’s name might come up. Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes might be enticing soon after that, but are you really passing up on Brandin Cooks — who is still good despite being a Texan — or Gabriel Davis at that point? I wouldn’t.
There’s an argument to be had that drafting a tight end higher up is the right call. I’m not one of those people, but I’d rather have a top TE than a top QB.
4
QB TD regression is a thing
What if Allen takes a step back (I doubt it, but …)?
Check this out:
Over last decade, a look at QB touchdown-pass regression. Every QB here was over-drafted in #fantasyfootball the next year based on what we'd recently seen.
One.
One QB threw more TD passes the next year. pic.twitter.com/gUtPqjY9xq
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 21, 2019
That’s a tweet from 2019. In 2018, Mahomes threw for 50 touchdowns. In 2019? He threw 26.
In 2019, Lamar Jackson led the league with 36 passing touchdowns. In 2020, he had 26.
Aaron Rodgers had 48 in 2020. He had 37 in 2021.
Sense a pattern here?
The interesting thing is Allen didn’t lead the league in passing TDs — he had 36, which was seventh overall. What he does rushing is what makes him the top option this year, but what if there’s regression there too?
5
Conclusion: When SHOULD you take a QB then?
In a standard league with one starting QB, I’m staring down the sixth round or so.
Hurts might be there. Prescott will be. Russell Wilson is all the way down there. If you believe Brady has another huge season in him at age 45 (!), then you can grab him.
But I’m also thinking you can wait even longer. Trey Lance could break out. Rodgers doesn’t seem to care if he has big-name wideouts or not, he still produces.
And then grab an upside backup like Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailoa.
There you have it. Good luck!
