The Baltimore Ravens take on the New England Patriots in the most exciting matchup of Week 9. It will be the biggest test of the year for both teams, as the Patriots are 8-0 but have benefited from a cakewalk of a schedule so far. The Ravens have also had a bit of an easy go in the first half of the year, but they’ve had to face challenges like the Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks, going 1-1 in those tough matchups.
New England will be Baltimore’s toughest test, but they aren’t invincible. In fact, the Ravens might be one of just a few teams that actually stack up well against the Patriots. If Baltimore is going to beat New England tonight, this is why:
Lamar Jackson’s uniqueness
Jackson is the reason the Ravens have won many games this year and that won’t change against the Patriots. He’s been an absolute force this year, causing opposing defenses headaches with his style of play.
Jackson has improved as a passer, with 1,650 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions through seven games. However, for how good Jackson has been throwing this year, he’s been far more impressive on the ground to the tune of 576 yards and three touchdowns on 83 rushing attempts.
I think if Baltimore wins this game it will be because of his prowess on the ground. Teams have to game-plan for Jackson in so many ways, and although it’s safe to say Bill Belichick has done his homework, there are only so many ways to prepare for how electric he is.
Return of ‘Hollywood’ to Baltimore
I outlined how important the return of wide receiver Marquise Brown is in my bold prediction for this game, but it’s worth mentioning again. Brown changes the entire dynamic of the Ravens offense, forcing teams to respect his game-breaking speed. That requires the opposing defense to give safety help over the top and that means there’s one less player in the box to stop the run.
If Baltimore is able to get the run game going, pounding the ball will put the Patriots into a tough spot. Either they’ll have to keep the safety over the top to protect against the big play from Brown, or they’ll need to bring him down to help defend the run. It’s that “pick your poison” style of mismatch offense Baltimore has utilized to great results this season.
Return of Jimmy Smith
Another reason the Ravens are in a good position to win this game is another player returning from injury. Smith has been a difference-maker in Baltimore for years and should immediately help the defense now that he’s healthy.
At his best, Smith is able to shut down top wide receivers. While Baltimore has Marlon Humphrey doing that, Smith will provide much-needed depth and skill to a secondary that needs it.
Against the Patriots, the Ravens can rotate Humphrey, Smith, Marcus Peters and Brandon Carr in and out, presenting matchup problems at every turn. If Smith plays at the high level we’ve seen from him, he’s just another guy able to take away Brady’s options down the field. Smith’s return gives defensive coordinator Don Martindale more flexibility in how and how often he’s able to dial up pressure on Tom Brady.
Patriots’ run defense
There’s no debating how good the Patriots defense has been this year. They’ve allowed the fewest points in the NFL and rank second in yards allowed. But when taking a closer look at the stat sheet, their run defense has been a different story.
While New England has only allowed 85.2 rushing yards per game, those numbers are a bit inflated since their opponents have had to abandon the run early to keep up on the scoreboard. When you take a deeper dive, you see the Patriots actually give up 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks 26th in the league. Against the Cleveland Browns last week, New England allowed running back Nick Chubb gain 131 yards on 20 carries and gave up a 7.2 yard-per-carry average in total.
Given that Baltimore is one of the best rushing teams in the league and can attack a defense both inside with Mark Ingram and outside with Jackson, they should have plenty of room to run. Sustaining drives on the ground ticks time off the clock and keeps Brady off the field. Sometimes the best defense is actually the offense.
