The NFL trade deadline is almost here and the general consensus seems to be that the Kansas City Chiefs won’t be very active. It might be a hard pill to swallow for fans because of the Super Bowl-or-bust mentality. However, there are several reasons that the team might stay idle and let the trade deadline pass without making a move. Here’s a look at some of those reasons:
Chris Jones extension
The Chiefs have maintained interest in signing the defensive tackle to a long-term contract extension. While there hasn’t been significant progress, both sides remain interested in coming to an agreement. That could happen this season or ahead of the 2020 free agency period. It’s also possible that the franchise tag is in play.
As much cap space as is available right now, things could get tight in the future as Kansas City seeks to extend Jones, Patrick Mahomes and other players. If the Chiefs were to pay $10 million or more against the cap to a trade acquisition in 2020, that could prevent them from tagging or signing Jones. That would limit the types of players that Kansas City can realistically go after. They need to either target players that are still on their rookie contracts or players on expiring contracts.
Finding players who meet those specific criteria, and are valued by the pro personnel staff, is much easier said than done. Negotiating trade compensation in those situations can be even more difficult, especially for a team like the Chiefs who are perceived to be picking late in the 2020 draft order.
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Early returns on 2019 draft class
The halfway mark of the 2019 season shows us that the Chiefs’ draft class is one of the most successful ones in recent history. From their top pick (Mecole Hardman) all the way down to their last pick (Nick Allegretti) the front office, coaching staff and even ownership are very happy with the draft class and their contributions.
There is confidence in the building that even with only five picks in the 2020 NFL draft, they can find talent that will come in and contribute to success early.
The franchise is less inclined to trade future draft capital for a player they don’t view as elite. They were willing to fork out a lot in trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick or even Jalen Ramsey, but with those players off the table, they’ll move on to alternate and less suitable options. There’s no telling how they value the players that are available and whether they’ll compete against other offers.
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Injuries and changing needs
The Chiefs are beaten to a pulp right now. Ahead of Week 8, they had six starters ruled out with injury. Following Week 8, they might need to add two more starters to that expansive injury list. If some of these injuries aren’t season-ending, they’ll face some very difficult decisions while dealing with a roster crunch. They simply might not have the roster space available to accommodate a trade.
The needs of this team have also changed quite a bit too. Earlier in the season, people would have been pounding the table for a cornerback. That position is starting to look like a strength of the defensive side of the ball. Injuries have drawn some attention to the defensive line. Kansas City could use another body at the defensive end position just to get through four quarters of football.
One spot that needs to be improved that isn’t currently dealing with injuries is the linebacker position. It’s beginning to look like the top position of need is a nickel linebacker that can cover the NFL’s elite athletes at running back and tight end. Right now, Chiefs linebackers are really struggling to cover in both zone and man.
Unfortunately, a lot of the teams who are selling at the deadline also don’t have great offerings at the linebacker position. Kansas City would likely make a trade and end up with more of the same, because elite coverage linebackers are few and far between.
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Availability-to-cost ratio
One of the big problems with this trade deadline is that there is that teams are asking for unrealistic returns on non-elite players or aging veterans with a bad contract. This is driving up the price of the elite players that a team like the Chiefs would be willing to go all in on a trade. The sad reality is that a lot of teams are only willing to take an overpay to make a deal, especially if they’re going to need to eat a lot of prorated bonus money in 2020.
Of the players who are rumored to be available, very few seem to be assets who could immediately help. They aren’t looking for offensive help, so that eliminates a lot of the available players, and on the defensive side of the ball, there are many unproductive players currently available.
There’s only so many “change of scenery” players that a team can take on. Kansas City has seen good returns on Emmanuel Ogbah so far, but Darron Lee has been a bit of a disappointment. That could leave them tentative to make a move for some of the names that have been floated out there.
It feels increasingly likely that unless the Chiefs can get a player at a bargain, they’re unlikely to make a trade. The cost might simply be too high.
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