The Houston Texans won the AFC South for the second straight season, fourth time in five years, and the sixth time in franchise history, which is the second-most since the division’s 2002 inception.
However, they were capable of so much more and they failed to capture it.
Here are four reasons why the Texans underachieved in the 2019 regular season.
1. losses to inferior teams cost them a bye
Let’s say the Texans weren’t good enough to beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11 after coming back from London. Fair enough; after all, no team that came back from London this season won their next game.
However, the Texans dropped winnable games against opponents that could have helped them get a bye in the AFC playoffs.
The first was to the Carolina Panthers 16-10 in Week 4. The Texans were coming off of a 27-20 win at the Los Angeles Chargers. They could have amassed a three-game winning streak. Instead, Houston went 1-of-3 in the red zone with receiver DeAndre Hopkins throwing a telegraphed pass to running back Carlos Hyde that was intercepted.
The second was to the Indianapolis Colts 30-23 in Week 7. After coming off of a big win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans couldn’t keep the momentum and couldn’t execute, losing the turnover battle 2-1 and going 4-of-12 on third downs.
The third was to the Denver Broncos in Week 38-24 in Week 14. After the greatest regular season win in the Bill O’Brien era, the Texans came out flat and fell behind 38-3 to rookie quarterback Drew Lock, who was making his first career road start.
If Houston even has one of those wins back, Week 17 means something more as a 12-4 finish would give them the No. 2 seed over Kansas City and New England as Houston would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both.
How much readier could J.J. Watt be if he had another week of practice to get ready for the playoffs?
2. points per game
The Texans entered Week 17 as the 11th-highest scoring offense in the NFL with 24.3 points per game.
How much higher could that average have been if the Texans were better in the red zone?
The Texans weren’t 50% in the red zone as they were in 2018, tied with the New York Giants for the fifth-lowest conversion rate in the league. However, as previously mentioned with the Carolina game, there were missed opportunities. Just take the Panthers’ game alone. If they converted those two missed trips, they would be tied with the Green Bay Packers for the third-highest red zone conversion rate in the league at 66.7%. Guess who has a bye for the wild-card round. Those two missing touchdowns would have put the Texans at No. 10 in points per game with 376 points scored heading into Week 17. The only teams in the top-10 in points per game who aren’t going to the playoffs are the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
3. first quarter points
Heading into Week 17, the Texans scored a total of six first quarter points. With an offense that features Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Carlos Hyde having a career year, that total through 15 games is putrid. It is partly why they got into the trouble they did in some of their games. How would the tenor of the Carolina, first Colts, Baltimore, and Broncos games have turned out if the Texans were posting anywhere from seven to 14 points on the board? Houston’s offense took a long time to get going in games, and sometimes the contests got out of hand to where they couldn’t claw their way back in.
4. coaching and culture
As a team builder, coach Bill O’Brien had one of his best seasons as he addressed the Texans’ holes with key trades in preseason, at cut day, and throughout the season to keep Houston competitive.
However, as a coach, he did let the team down at times.
Take for example the win over the Patriots in Week 13. After a signature win that was personally one of his all-time best, after a win that as an organization signaled the Texans passed a checkpoint, the club didn’t ride out the momentum to a winning streak to end the season. Instead, all of the momentum gained from that big Sunday night win was chucked out the window with a 38-24 loss to the 4-8 Denver Broncos who were starting a rookie quarterback.
Credit O’Brien that the Texans were able to regroup and beat the Tennessee Titans the following week for a preliminary battle for the AFC South crown, but one of O’Brien’s mentors, Bill Belichick, would have kept the team focused and not tripping from the endorphins of a big win over a top dog in the conference to then drop a home game to one of the AFC’s mutts. It’s that element that is missing from O’Brien’s coaching and from the organizational culture that could compromise their bid to play in the conference title game this postseason.
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