The Baltimore Ravens face their toughest test of the season when they travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Baltimore currently sits as decisive underdogs this week but those paying closer attention should see this game as anything but already played out.
The Ravens have a lot of things working in their favor to pull off the upset. From their offensive prowess to their defensive might, Baltimore has all the tools necessary to beat Kansas City in Week 3.
Let’s take a closer look at why the Ravens will beat the Chiefs.
They almost did it last year
The Ravens brought in a rookie quarterback, making just his fourth start, and took the Chiefs to the limit and overtime last season. While Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes staged some late-game heroics to pull off the 27-24 win, Baltimore went into the game as pretty large underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset.
This time, the Ravens don’t have as many things going against them. Considering they already gave the Chiefs everything they could handle last year, that’s a recipe for an upset this time around.
The Chiefs haven’t seen an offense like the Ravens have
Though it’s just been two weeks into the 2019 regular season, Kansas City has had a pretty easy schedule so far. They’ve played the Jacksonville Jaguars, who picked up their first win of the season on Thursday, as well as the Oakland Raiders. That schedule has been exceptionally easy on their defense, which ranks 20th in yards allowed and ninth in points allowed.
This week, they’ll face off against the league’s highest-rated quarterback in Lamar Jackson and an offense that ranks No. 1 overall in yards and points. The Chiefs simply haven’t played an offense that can both run and pass the ball consistently well and haven’t seen an offense as full of big-time playmakers like the Ravens have this year.
They took Kansas City to overtime last year and this year, Baltimore is dramatically better offensively. That doesn’t bode well for a Chiefs defense that has had middling results against subpar competition.
Kansas City hasn’t faced a defense this tough yet
The flip side of the last point is also true. Neither the Jaguars or Raiders have a defense nearly as good as what Baltimore has put on the field. Even with injuries and communication issues, the Ravens’ defense has been brilliant this season and they sound even hungrier this week after a rather lackluster performance (for this group) last week.
In two games, Baltimore ranks second in yards allowed, fourth in points allowed, 10th in interception rate and ninth in sack rate.
But this game could ultimately be decided in the red zone, and the stats lean heavily in favor of the Ravens. Baltimore ranks eighth in red-zone percentage defensively with touchdowns coming just 40% of the time. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled to punch the ball into the end zone, finding a touchdown just 37.5% of the time they’re in the red zone — good enough for 27th in the league.
Eric Fisher is out
Beyond the stats, the injury report also favors Baltimore this week. The Ravens will be missing cornerback Jimmy Smith and safety Brynden Trawick. The Chiefs have several impact players out on Sunday, including left tackle Eric Fisher.
As I pointed out with the most important Ravens to watch this week, outside linebackers Matthew Judon and Pernell McPhee should be able to feast on backup left tackle Cam Erving. They’ve already combined for four sacks and eight quarterback hits through two games and should be licking their lips at the matchup before them this week.
Fisher being out and Baltimore’s pass rush will force Kansas City to use running back LeSean McCoy as a blocker while potentially forcing tight end Travis Kelce to chip before going out for routes. That effectively takes away one weapon and hinders arguably the Chiefs’ greatest weapon in Kelce. Even if the Ravens aren’t able to generate any more pressure than they have the last two weeks, Kansas City is going to have to alter their gameplan to make sure Baltimore can’t beat up Mahomes and that’ll slow down their offense even further.
