Bill Belichick’s draft approach always seems a bit unorthodox. Over the course of the seven rounds, the New England Patriots coach and general manager will make a few moves that leave the media scratching their heads.
There’s no right or wrong methodology on draft day. The results of the draft can be evaluated over time. Still, there are certainly situations that can arise that would be empirically bad for New England. Here are four nightmare scenarios for the Patriots in the 2019 NFL Draft.
1. Not landing a swing tackle
While the Patriots have a handful of needs for a starter — potentially at receiver, tight end and defensive end — the team can bring a committee approach at those positions. It might be underwhelming, but it’s possible. Right now, the Patriots have no committee capable of backing up their tackles Marcus Cannon and Isaiah Wynn.
And that’s assuming Wynn can actually be a starter. He was the 23rd overall pick in 2018, but suffered an Achilles injury in the first preseason game which ended his season before it began. It’s hard enough to project a player with zero experience to the left tackle job. It’s even harder when they’re coming off an injury as severe as an Achilles tear.
Cannon also hasn’t played a full season since 2014. The Patriots will need a third tackle that they trust. So if the Patriots don’t land a competent swing tackle — whether a veteran or a rookie — during the course of the draft, they’ll be looking at bottom-of-the-barrel free agents as a backup to protect the edge for Tom Brady if (or when) Wynn and Cannon get injured.
2. No help at tight end or receiver
The Patriots don’t need to double up on receivers. They don’t need to draft both a receiver and a tight end. They could — and probably should. But the team seems to have some of the necessary parts in place for a decent crew of pass-catchers. Still, they need to inject some youth into the receiver position, and it wouldn’t hurt to add a top-end talent at tight end to help with the departure of Rob Gronkowski.
At wide receiver, Julian Edelman is 32 and Demaryius Thomas is 31. Phillip Dorsett is still 26, but he struggled in a starting role in 2018 and couldn’t produce like the team wanted him to do. Josh Gordon is an excellent player but can’t stay on the field and is again indefinitely suspended. And receivers Bruce Ellington, Maurice Harris and Braxton Berrios are unproven entities. Could the Patriots turn that group into a starting-caliber crew for 2019? Definitely. But they don’t have much in place for 2020 and beyond. That’s why drafting a talented receiving prospect could help.
The tight end position, meanwhile, is a bit messier. Austin Seferian-Jenkins headlines the group, but he has a history of failing to meet expectations due to injuries. He struggles to complete seasons, and while he occasionally flashes his impressive talents, he has hardly been consistent. Beyond him, the Patriots have more unproven entities in Matt LaCosse, Jacob Hollister, Stephen Anderson and Ryan Izzo.
3. Former Patriots general managers keep stealing the players they covet
Because Belichick’s front office has been a breeding ground for talented evaluators, many have gone on to take general manager jobs with other teams. The Lions’ Bob Quinn, the Titans’ Jon Robinson, the Buccaneers’ Jason Licht and the Falcons’ Thomas Dimitroff all worked for Belichick’s Patriots. Thus, many of them covet the same players. In free agency, the Titans outbid the Patriots for the services of Adam Humphries. During last year’s draft, the Titans jumped past the Patriots to select Alabama linebacker Rashaan Evans, who was pegged as an obvious cultural and schematic fit in New England. The Bills, whose offensive coordinator Brian Daboll started in New England, also signed slot receiver Cole Beasley, a player that drew the Patriots’ interest. The Lions signed former Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers to a five-year, $90 million deal in free agency this offseason. The list goes on.
Essentially, the Patriots have to be protective of the players they like, because there’s a really good chance that one of Belichick’s protégées like that player just as much.
4. Failing to acquire a quarterback
The top-tier quarterbacks will probably get drafted too high: Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, Missouri’s Drew Lock, Duke’s Daniel Jones and West Virginia’s Will Grier.
But the second tier of quarterbacks might be where the Patriots find a match of value. North Carolina State’s Ryan Finley, Boise State’s Brett Rypien, Northwestern’s Cole Thorson and Buffalo’s Tyree Jackson will likely be in play for New England. These prospects are not the big splash quarterbacks that other teams might desire. The Patriots don’t need to — or want to — draw attention to their young signal caller. They want a malleable prospect that they can buy low and develop into Brady’s heir.
