In 2019, the Houston Texans have participated in their fair share of thrillers. Sunday’s AFC showdown with the Baltimore Ravens is presumed to be yet another addition to the stock-full cabinet of Texans thrillers. This time, with Houston coming in as underdogs.
The 7-2 Ravens, led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, sports star-level talent on both sides of the ball. The flock are favorites to win against the 6-3 Texans, led by fellow MVP candidate Deshaun Watson. Houston can change the course if they accomplish these four “musts.”
1. Play disciplined football
The ultimate cliché in football: play disciplined defense. While resorting to a cliché maybe unoriginal, it’s true; the Texans must play with sound gap-control, keep their eyes on the ball, set the edge consistently, wrap-up with their tackles and, most importantly, know what No. 8 is up to.
Sounds like playing good defense, huh?
Pretty much.
The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are a triple-threat on offense. They can dink-and-dunk down the field with RPOs and play-action, run at will with Jackson and Mark Ingram and, with the previous two in-account, give defenses trouble with the threat of Jackson’s legs and his arm talent.
Baltimore is a nightmare to defend. There has yet to be a defense that can contain and Jackson and Co. for an entire game. Playing like a well-coached front-seven would undoubtedly help.
2. Take away the quick passing game
With Lamar Jackson at the helm, the Ravens offense is dynamic. However, they aren’t perfect. Baltimore has not passed the ball deep consistently all-season long.
According to Player Profiler, Jackson is drilling 34.1% of his deep ball attempts, good for 20th in the NFL. Fortunately for the Ravens, coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have masked his so-so deep throwing with quick-hitting concepts.
The Ravens attack defenses with their three tight ends — Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle — short crossing concepts, RPOs and play-action bootlegs. Jackson can read a defense, pull them in with his legs then strike with far-improved accuracy.
That does not bode well for the Texans. Houston struggles to defend crossers and quick reads. Inside linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham, as well as nickel defenders, are paramount to reversing that course against a team that will exploit their weaknesses with their strengths.
3. Run the rock
Taking the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands should be priority No. 1. The simplest way of doing so is to keep the ball in the Texans’ hands. Why not do that with an improved rush attack against a not-so-great defense?
Hint: there are no reasons why they should not do that.
The Texans can control the tempo of the game with their run game. Luckily, rushing the ball against Baltimore’s defense is one of the few plus matchups for Houston.
According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are 28th in DVOA run defense (2%). The Texans are 12th in rush offense (-0.7%) and 11th in adjusted line yards per rush (4.34).
The Texans should not go completely run-heavy. That’s not their game. However, they should look to control the pace of the game with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. Establishing the run can wear out a pedestrian front-seven and leave them susceptible to big plays from Deshaun Watson.
4. beat the blitz
The Ravens have playmakers on defense. The problem (for them): they lack them in the front-seven. With no more Terrell Suggs, Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley, Baltimore has resorted to blitzing to create pressure alongside their lead pass-rusher Matthew Judon.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Ravens blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (49.4%). However, that has resulted in a bottom-five hurry rate (7.6%). Simply put, Baltimore sends the heat, but most of the time, they get little in return.
Luckily, for the Texans, quarterback Deshaun Watson has improved mightily when attacking the blitz. He has found tight ends, wideout DeAndre Hopkins and tailback Duke Johnson to be reliable options on hot routes. The result: a far better quarterback against blitzes than before.
It doesn’t hurt Watson that he ranks seventh in the NFL in pressured completion rate (45.2%), per Player Profiler, and will play behind a fully healthy offensive line — which has allowed two sacks in 176 snaps.
Houston can negate Baltimore’s blitz-happy defense with an offense that has gotten increasingly better against extra pressure. Expect the Texans to exploit the Ravens’ aggressive pass-rush by targeting the middle of the field and loading Johnson and the tight ends up on hot reads.
