Sunday, Oct. 20, isn’t any regular Sunday for the Houston Texans. It’s the Sunday in which they face their closest competitor in the AFC South, their rival and the team that forced a sour taste in the mouth of Texans fans, players, coach and everything in-between: the Indianapolis Colts.
The 3-2 Colts, at home, presents a tough task for the 4-2 Texans. They were the only team to beat Houston twice in 2018. However, by accomplishing four tasks, the Texans will get the last laugh on Sunday.
Limit T.Y. Hilton
Duh.
Since the dawn of time, the Texans have struggled to defend T.Y. Hilton. So much so that in 15 career games against Houston (one playoff), Hilton has a stat line that reads 81 receptions for 1,530 yards and nine touchdowns — which may be enough to send him to an All-Pro team.
Hilton has 24 catches for 232 yards and four touchdowns in 2019, which is lower than initially projected. He hasn’t been the same deep-ball menace with Jacoby Brissett as his quarterback. However, the Texans can’t see that as regression — he has been successful against them no matter the quarterback.
The Texans are changing their approach to defend him.
“That’s going to be one of the focuses for the week,” safety Justin Reid said on Thursday. “He’s a talented guy. He’s had a lot of success against us in the past, so we’re going to change some things up to give him some different looks and play him a little bit differently than we did in the past in order to really take him out of the game plan to limit his exposure.”
Only time will tell if that works. If it does, Houston may be leaving Indianapolis with clown masks of their own.
Attack, attack, attack
Three attacks for three different ways the Texans need to attack the Colts defense.
First, the Texans running back duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson need to get going in the power-run game. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are allowing an 89% power-run success rate, good for 31st in the NFL. What does that mean for Houston’s gameplan? Second-level blocking, pull-blocking and runs attacking the middle of the defensive line.
After developing the power-run game, the Texans need to utilize the play-action. Houston has a triple-threat play-action with Deshaun Watson as the quarterback, speed in Will Fuller and Kenny Stills and power in Carlos Hyde. They’ve used it successfully as of late; they should continue to do so against a secondary bound to play plenty of backups.
Play-action, especially if it’s deeper, can also pull-in the Colts’ best defensive players: their linebackers.
On-top of power rushing and utilizing that for play-action, the Texans need to do one thing overall: pass the ball.
The Colts secondary is beaten and isn’t as physical as Houston last saw them. They are also struggling to defend the deep pass — according to Sharp Football Stats, they allow a 158.3 passer rating in the deep left, 77 to the middle and 90 to the right; absurdly high.
Attack, attack, attack.
Key-in on the short passing game
Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn’t a bad deep-ball thrower, but he’s not Andrew Luck — who made a living crushing the Texans over-top. That shows in the statistics, as he is 28th in the NFL in 20+ yard connections (nine) and 26th in 40+ yard ones (one).
Brissett’s lack of deep-ball prowess has a lot to do with the scheme. Without Luck at the helm, coach Frank Reich is running a more prototypical West Coast offense to complement a, frankly, nasty run-game.
What does that mean for Houston? It should mean they will copy how defenses have played Indianapolis in 2019: single-high safety with the other acting as a robber (essentially, a lower-middle-field zone). Luckily, Houston’s defense has thrived in that alignment, with either Tashaun Gipson or Jahleel Addae as the robber and Justin High as the free-roamer.
The Texans must defend the barrage of slants, screens, flood concepts, mesh concepts or whatever short-area schematics the Colts have been attacking defenses with.
Don’t let Indianapolis win the time of possession battle
The Colts’ strategy to victory is simple: run the ball, let Jacoby Brissett manage an efficient offense he is comfortable in, don’t turn over the ball and if all goes right, win the time of possession battle. It’s a strategy as old as football, but it works, and defenses struggle to stop it.
Indianapolis has the best offensive line in football; thanks, Quenton Nelson. They can — and will — run the ball down the throats of their opposers. That showed in last year’s wildcard round when Marlon Mack ran for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. The result of him doing so? Indy controlling the clock and beating the Texans handily, in Houston.
In each of Indianapolis’ three wins, they’ve won the time of possession battle. It’s what they strive to do; why wouldn’t they with an offensive line that can wear out any defense?
This is simple: win the time of possession battle. How? Bottle up the run, force Brissett into making errant passes and don’t let their defense do the same when Houston has the ball. Essentially, the defense has to play well, the offense can’t turn over the ball. Who would have thought?
