The 3-2 Houston Texans are 4.5-point underdogs against the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs in Missouri on Sunday.
Despite their underdog status, the Texans are more than capable of pulling off an — which would firmly entrench them as the leader of the AFC South and perhaps change the more negative public perception of the team.
In order to do so, however, Houston will need to do four things in particular.
Get to Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes practiced in full-capacity on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. However, his ankle should be worrisome for Chiefs faithful. Mahomes clearly hurt his ankle in last week’s loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Subsequently, he wasn’t the same.
The Texans should take advantage of a Mahomes that should lack some mobility coming off the ankle injury. Though Mahomes is excellent under pressure (41.9% completion rate, per PlayerProfiler), he may not be if he can’t move like he usually can.
For the Texans, they should also be able to get to Mahomes easier. Their starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, is out. Their left guard, Andrew Wylie, should follow on Sunday. Whitney Mercilus could have a field day, which the Texans need.
Play stout man-to-man coverage
The plan to slow down Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 MVP, has leaked. Play man-to-man coverage, which forces him to throw in tighter windows and rely on the receivers. In back-to-back weeks, both the Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts played man on Mahomes, and it worked, limiting him to one touchdown over both.
Mahomes is aware that man-to-man is becoming the blueprint for slowing him down. “Detroit did it last week. New England did it in the playoffs,” Mahomes recently said, via KansasCity.com. “We have to beat man coverage at the end of the day.”
If the Texans cornerbacks can play tight man-to-man coverage on Mahomes, they may be leaving Kansas City with more than a belly full of barbeque.
Exploit a reeling Chiefs front-seven
The Chiefs pass-rush was supposed to be better in 2019. They switched to a more favorable 4-3, brought in a well-paid pass-rusher in Frank Clark and revamped their coverage unit to favor it. It turns out, the Chiefs are struggling to get to the quarterback in 2019.
After trading a treasure trove of picks and paying him handsomely, Clark has disappointed off the edge for the Chiefs, reeling in one sack in five games. The rest of the front-seven is struggling to get to the quarterback, too, as they’ve tallied 11 sacks on the year, which is in the bottom half of the league.
Kansas City will also be without their best pass-rusher on Sunday. Defensive lineman Chris Jones (who led them in sacks in 2018 with 15.5) is officially out for Sunday’s game with a groin injury. The Texans better take advantage of a struggling unit down their best player.
Get Deshaun Watson going early
Too often, the Texans have to dig themselves out of holes in the second half. On Sunday, against one of the NFL’s elite offenses, doing so will force them to dig their own graves.
No matter what, Houston cannot allow the Chiefs offense to be up big heading into the second half, especially in Kansas City. Their answer to do that? If they can’t contain Patrick Mahomes, it will be Deshaun Watson. The third-year quarterback will have to get going early to match the explosiveness of the Chiefs offense.
Luckily, Watson is capable of getting to a hot start. That becomes truer considering the Chiefs struggling defense, in all facets. If Watson can get off to a hot start, the Texans will be able to negate the inevitable: the Chiefs offense scoring points.
