If the Cleveland Browns hope to keep the playoff flame flickering, Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills is a win-or-die affair. At 2-6, there is no more margin for error — especially when the 6-2 Bills are one of the teams Cleveland has to chase down.
It will not be easy for the Browns to make up the ground. However, the Bills are a team they can, and probably should, expect to beat. To make it happen, the Browns need to follow several of these to stay on the path to victory.
Keep up the more disciplined football
It got overlooked in the loss, but the Browns did a very good job of avoiding their usual game-ruining mistakes in Denver.
The Browns did not turn the ball over once, the first game all season with no giveaways. Cleveland also committed a season-low five penalties for just 40 yards. Denver had more penalties (8) and lost yardage (55), the first time all season that has happened with a Browns opponent.
It did not equate to victory in Week 9, but more often than not a team that wins the turnover battle (the Browns were plus-1) and penalty war winds up on the favorable end of the scoreboard, too.
Keep Josh Allen in the pocket
Bills QB Josh Allen does a lot of things well. Throwing from the pocket is not one of them, however.
Allen has improved his completion percentage from 52.8% as a rookie to just over 60% in his second season, but he remains erratic when he’s stationary and trying to hit moving targets. His lack of touch and anticipation are more pronounced when Allen is in the pocket than when he is rolling, either by design or in escape mode.
Where he really stresses defenses is when the defense loses edge contain and Allen tucks and runs. Allen as a runner is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the league. His receivers do a good job blocking, but they’re also adept at shaking free and giving him targets to hit with his incredible arm strength. They don’t hit many of those, but one or two is often enough to break a game open.
Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon have both been very good this year at rushing the pass from the edge. If Vernon can’t go, that puts extra pressure on Chad Thomas and Chris Smith in his stead. In this game, staying in control and not giving Allen escape lanes will be critical as they rush. Linebackers Joe Schobert and Mack Wilson must stay aware and not overcommit, too.
Score TDs in the red zone
It’s great that rookie kicker Austin Seibert is perfect in his field goal attempts on the season. It would be a lot better if his attempts came from outside the red zone.
Cleveland’s woeful red zone performance has cost the team victories. Look no further than last Sunday’s loss in Denver. The Browns managed just one touchdown in five trips inside the Broncos’ 20-yard line. That dropped the season TD percentage in the red zone to just over 46 percent, a figure that currently ranks 25th.
Last year’s turnaround was keyed in part by the Browns being awesome at converting red zone trips into touchdowns. Cleveland finished 6th with a 66.7 percent TD rate in the red zone, but had the No. 3 rate once Baker Mayfield took over at QB.
The Bills defense allows over a 60 percent TD rate in the red zone, tied for 22nd through Week 9. There will be opportunities for Mayfield and the Browns offense to finish drives with more points than yet another Seibert 29-yard field goal.
Keep Andre Roberts in check
Who is Andre Roberts, you may ask? The wideout doesn’t show up on Bills game film much and he’s not well-known outside the NFL cities he’s played in. The Browns need to hope it stays that way for another weekend.
Roberts has been the NFL’s top punt and kick return specialist for most of the last five seasons. In 2018, he was a first-team All-Pro and earned a Pro Bowl nod for his return skills with the New York Jets. Roberts led the NFL in return yards and scored two TDs, one on a punt return and once on a kickoff return. His 14.1 yards per punt return
Since 2015, Roberts has scored five return TDs — best in the NFL. He’s a dangerous weapon, but one that has yet to really go off in 2019. His kick return average of 32.6 yards is the best of his career, but Roberts has just seven return attempts and the average is inflated by a 66-yarder. His punt average is just 5.4 with a long of only 13 yards.
Cleveland’s special teams coverage units have been a bright spot, led by gunners Tavierre Thomas and KhaDarel Hodge. They need to stay that way against the dangerous Roberts.
