Speculation often spurs narrative, and that infected the New York Giants once again on Wednesday when Jay Glazer told The Athletic that he predicts Odell Beckham Jr. will be traded this offseason.
Trade winds have swirled around Beckham for years before reaching critical mass last offseason when phone calls were actually being fielded and prices were being exchanged.
The Giants, of course, placed such a remarkably high price tag on Beckham that no trade was even remotely close to happening, but people have hung onto that. And after Glazer’s prediction on Wednesday, Giants Nation was thrust into a tizzy.
While the speculation will undoubtedly continue, we decided to look at a few reasons why the Giants won’t (and really can’t) trade Beckham.
Dave Gettleman has publicly stated no trade is coming
This is about as simple as it gets — Giants general manager Dave Gettleman, fresh off giving Beckham a five-year, $90 million extension with over $60 million guaranteed, said OBJ will not be traded.
“We didn’t sign him to trade him, if that’s what you’re asking,” Gettleman said in January before quipping once again at the repeated questioning. “You heard what I said.”
Now, we know those in the NFL world often tell fibs publicly and go about business differently behind the scenes, but Gettleman is the straightest shooter in football.
A year ago at this time, fans, analysts and experts alike were 100 percent certain the Giants were going to select a quarterback in the NFL Draft. Gettleman cautioned against that line of thinking and everyone assumed he was blowing smoke. He wasn’t.
After months of talking up running back Saquon Barkley, Gettleman ran to the podium to take him at No. 2 overall just like he said he was going to.
If Gettleman says Beckham is off limits, then he’s off limits. Period.
Beckham’s contract would be difficult to move
While it would be possible to move Beckham and his massive contract, the way it’s structured would make it somewhat difficult.
If the Giants traded Beckham prior to June 1, it would still cost the team a $14 million dead cap hit in 2019, which would be terribly bad business for a team already carrying a substantial dead cap number.
To combat that, the Giants could trade Beckham post-June 1 and save $17 million against the cap with just a $4 million dead cap hit, but by then free agency would be over and they’d have nowhere to even spend that savings.
Financially, it would make no sense.
Who would replace Beckham?
If the Giants were okay with eating a $14 million dead cap hit for some bizarre reason and did trade Beckham prior to June 1, they’d still run into a very real problem: who would replace him?
Currently, the Giants’ roster looks less than inspiring after Sterling Shepard on the depth chart. There’s really no one on the 90-man roster who could step up and replace Beckham, so the Giants would be forced to look elsewhere.
On the trade market, they could talk to the Steelers about Antonio Brown, but whatever reason the team would have for trading Beckham would still persists with Brown — high cap number, a diva attitude and 24/7 media attention.
Meanwhile, the top available free agents are almost all over the age of 30 and none even come close to the sort of impact player Beckham is.
The Giants could pick from the likes of Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas and John Brown, but really, why bother?
Giants are trying to win now
The Giants are sticking with quarterback Eli Manning for at least one more season, which means they’re putting off a full implosion and rebuild. So with that sort of mindset, how could anyone rationalize trading away one of their best young players?
Make no mistake about it, if the Giants were tearing this entire thing down and rebuilding from the bottom up, maybe then it would make sense to trade Beckham from a financial standpoint. Still, had that been in the cards, Gettleman & Co. never would have extended Beckham a year ago.
Even if the Giants were in rebuilding mode, trading Beckham would be a 50/50 move. He is, of course, still on the right side of 30 with his prime yet to come. That seems like the exact kind of player you’d want on both a win now team and a rebuilding team.
