The New England Patriots didn’t expect to be in this situation. They should have stopped the Miami Dolphins and Ryan Fitzpatrick on their final offensive drive in the fourth quarter in Week 17. Frankly, the Patriots shouldn’t have allowed it to get to that point. But it did. And the Dolphins scored a touchdown to complete the upset victory, which knocked the Patriots out of the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff standings.
New England fell to No. 3, which slated them to play the Tennessee Titans in the wild card round at Gillette Stadium. (Day and time is to be announced.) So Bill Belichick will match up against coach Mike Vrabel, who played for Belichick in New England, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
There’s legitimate reason for concern for the Patriots. Here are four initial thoughts on the matchup.
1. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a whole new man (in a good way) — and so is Tom Brady (in a bad way)
These two quarterbacks seem to be headed in opposite trajectories.
Tannehill has experienced a renaissance in Tennessee after flunking out of the Miami Dolphins offense under Adam Gase. It’s beginning to seem like that was more a testament to Gase’s shortcomings than Tannehill’s. So maybe he’s 4-7 against the Patriots with 61 completion % for 2,851 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interception. But maybe the story will continue to be different. Maybe Tannehill’s hot streak will continue.
Brady, meanwhile, continues to look less-than-stellar. He threw a pick-six on Sunday against the Dolphins, his first since December 2017. His vision has been off — his accuracy isn’t what it has been in past seasons. Perhaps we’re witnessing Brady’s decline. Perhaps it’s a product of his weak supporting cast. Regardless, the quarterback doesn’t look ready to carry his offense past the Titans. Instead, he’ll need to rely upon his defense and special teams units. That has been the Patriots’ recipe for success in 2019.
2. Bill Belichick’s coaching tree has had success against him
Over the last two seasons, Belichick’s coaching tree (Lions coach Matt Patricia, Dolphins coach Brian Flores, Texans coach Bill O’Brien and Titans coach Mike Vrabel) has delivered four of the Patriots’ nine losses.
I’m counting Vrabel in Belichick’s tree, even if he only played and never coached for Belichick.
3. Stephon Gilmore’s dud couldn’t have come at a worse time
Stephon Gilmore delivered a bust of a performance in Week 17 against receiver DeVante Parker, which contributed in large part to the Patriots’ loss, which landed them in matchup against the Titans.
Gilmore’s game was his worst since — you guessed it — his matchup against Titans receiver Corey Davis (7 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD) in Week 10 of the 2018 season. It’s possible — and maybe even likely — Gilmore ends up on rookie receiver A.J. Brown, who has been a nightmare for cornerbacks since Tannehill has taken over for Mariota. But this game has the potential for a strange collision to make the perfect storm for Gilmore and New England.
4. The Titans defense has more than enough talent to keep the Patriots’ offense consistently inconsistent
New England’s offense proved once again in Week 17 that they are consistently inconsistent. Maybe they put together a gem in Week 16 against the impressive Buffalo Bills defense. But they didn’t establish enough of an identity to win against the Dolphins. It has been an embarrassing and odd year for the offense. That may continue.
Cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Logan Ryan make for a fearsome tandem. Safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard have been hawks at the top of the defense. Linebackers Rashaan Evans (a player the Patriots seemed interested in drafting) and Jayon Brown eclipsed 100 tackles. And second-year pass-rusher Harold Landry has nine sacks.
