The NBA season is now less than a week away, which means I’m bringing back one of my favorite, if occasionally embarrassing, columns, back to this lovely website.
For the third year in a row, my pal Brock has organized an over-under contest in which the participants (me) are tasked with making 10 picks against their over-under lines for the 2019-20 season, with five picks of my choice being worth double.
In the inaugural edition, I regrettably finished last despite being the only professional basketball writer in the group. However, last year I improved to the middle of the pack by scoring 7 out of a possible 15 points but I was correct on only 2 of my 5 super picks. Since picking these isn’t shooting NBA 3-pointers, hitting only 40 percent was still a failure. My friend Alex won the contest by going perfect on super picks and scoring 12 out of a possible 15 points.
So now my quest for redemption begins again as the season is thankfully around the corner, giving us an opportunity to lose less money than we did last season. Without further preamble, here are my 10 picks for the upcoming season, starting of course with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers OVER 50.5 (Regular)
I like the Lakers over this year, but I don’t love it. Of my super picks last year, the Lakers over pick was one of three (Boston, Golden State) I picked that let me down last season. Injuries torpedoed a group that was in 4th place in the Western Conference on Christmas but that team is now mostly gone, in favor of a mega trade for Anthony Davis and cheaper veteran signings on the periphery. I also now see the err in my ways of picking a team with such high expectations and such a precarious position.
This season, as last year, I believe the Lakers will end their playoff drought. Concerns about their guard play are serious to me and it hampers their ceiling more so in the regular season where games come right after another, but the combination of LeBron James creating with Anthony Davis finishing at a very efficient rate is a tantalizing core group. Danny Green also gives them a competent two-way wing who doesn’t need the ball, an ideal fit next to LeBron.
Davis is going to be a huge presence for the Lakers on the defensive end while giving them an offensive weapon both inside the paint and outside of it that LeBron didn’t have last year. Couple that with the Lakers prioritizing outside shooting in their role playing spots, they should be able to creep up to 51 wins.
However, the potential injury risks to their veterans and a lack of guard depth make me wary of choosing them as one of my super picks again.
Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 54.5 (REGULAR)
The Los Angeles Clippers are rightfully the favorites to win the NBA championship according to several reputable sources. With Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley fully healthy, they have the potential to sap offenses of every available outlet and stifle them on the perimeter until they cry Uncle Dennis.
But this Clippers team, unlike the one last year that won 48 games last season with a mostly unheralded group, has a target on their back. Most concerning of all for the purposes of this exercise, head coach Doc Rivers casually offered that Paul George is likely out for the first 10 games of the season as he recovers from bilateral shoulder surgery. That’s 10 games without a star that don’t include Leonard’s likely load management.
The Clippers have the roster to be an upper echelon West team even without PG, given that they added Kawhi Leonard and still have super-subs like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell to help them close games with zip. I also like the 3-point shooting of guard Landry Shamet as a compliment to their other stars. Maurice Harkless and Rodney McGruder can both comfortably defend multiple positions, even if they are often left open by opposing defenses.
I can’t shake the feeling the West is going to be a different animal for the Clippers this year. The conference might even be deeper this season. The Clippers are certainly more talented than they were last year, but so is the rest of the West and being a title favorite will make it much tougher for the Clippers to sneak up on people like they did last year. The glare of the Lakers is no longer as blinding on the L.A. basketball scene as it was last year.
Doc Rivers is one of the league’s great leaders on the bench and will likely make it work, but the Pacific Division battle between the Lakers and Clippers could very well go down to the final day of the season. Somehow, I just don’t see either team getting to 55 wins.
Toronto Raptors OVER 45.5 (SUPER)
Not only did I not forget about the defending champs, I am firmly believing in the infrastructure that allowed them to overachieve in each of the last five seasons.
Now, you might be reading this and think, get a load of this guy? He thinks a team with a bunch of veterans on expiring contracts managed by one of the league’s most ruthless GMs in Masai Ujiri won’t try to send some of those players off for future value? Well yes, I have to consider that. But the East is terrible and even then the Raptors have shown they have a system that plays winning basketball despite carrying on business as usual.
Pascal Siakam is coming off of a Most Improved Player season and could be looking to prove that he’s more than just a sidekick after Kawhi Leonard left. At 25, Siakam is inline for a potential maximum contract extension and reports suggest that he’s likely to sign it before the season begins. That kind of financial backing could galvanize someone who was already seen as a franchise pillar.
As far as Kyle Lowry, they made sure that he wouldn’t be a free agent next year by signing him to an extension. While Ujiri is as ruthless as they come, trading Lowry after seven years of service that ended in the franchise’s first championship seems like a bridge too far, even for him.
To me, the most likely scenario is that Lowry and Siakam lead a younger group of Raptors to a respectable playoff seed. The return of OG Anunoby, who suffered an appendectomy before the playoffs, should also help them maintain an above-average level of defensive competence on the perimeter. In the East, good guard play and strong perimeter defense tells me that’s good enough for 46 wins.
Boston Celtics UNDER (49.5)
Perhaps this is a slight overreaction to me believing too much in the Celtics last year, enough to pick them to win the championship on two separate occasions, but I don’t care. I don’t see this team winning 50 games, even if they will ultimately be a playoff team in the East. Sure, the East is bad, but the unquestionably Celtics got worse.
The loss of Kyrie Irving and Terry Rozier but the gain of Kemba Walker may ultimately work out for the Celtics, if harmony eventually leads to them being more than the sum of their parts. The talk of Jayson Tatum going back to taking more 3-pointers and shots near the rim after a season of embracing the midrange a little too much is encouraging. But the lack of solid big men on the interior after losing Al Horford worries me deeply for their chances of cracking 50 wins.
Enes Kanter is serviceable on the right team and he may get the opportunity to feast on the offensive glass, but going to him as a starter after having Horford is a steep drop-off. That’s without even considering what the Celtics lost offensively in Horford, someone who could space the floor and move the ball with smart passing.
I just don’t know if Marcus Smart’s defensive greatness alone can lead this group to an above-average defense. Walker, through no fault of his own due to his size, is a worse defender than either Irving or Rozier and that could hurt the Celtics even more now that they don’t have Horford’s wisdom on the interior.
Perhaps they find a center like second-year man Robert Williams to step up defensively and that helps them play above projections. While there is certainly a chance of that, I don’t see it as likely enough not to pick the under.
Houston Rockets OVER 54.5 (Regular)
This is probably my favorite pick of the bunch. And yet I didn’t give it the super designation because as I learned last year, picking a team in the West to exceed expectations and doubling down on it in this game doesn’t work out. Nevertheless, I have the over for Houston this year because I truthfully believe they will finish with the best record in the West.
One ESPN projection had them with 54 wins, right around their line and putting Russell Westbrook in place of Chris Paul will help them improve upon last year’s 53-win season. Although there are plenty of numbers that go against what I just said, I’d like to borrow a quote my friend Ben Golliver of The Washington Post: “the best ability is availability.”
Only once in his career has Westbrook played fewer than 67 games in an 82 game season. Paul failed to crack 59 games in each of his two seasons in Houston, which is a ultimately a concerning trend. Even when Westbrook saw his shooting percentages crater last season, he still added two more expected wins to the Thunder than Paul did to the Rockets (+14 vs. +12), according to Cleaning The Glass.
Adding Westbrook’s sheer man-power and consistency to play should help elevate the Rockets. The loss of swingman Gerald Green hurts, but this team’s ceiling was always about Harden and Westbrook. Although Westbrook is as stubborn as they come, a history with Harden of good memories and childhood trust rather than one of missing 27 straight 3-pointers and injured hamstrings unlike the one Harden had with Chris Paul should send this group back to the top of the West.
Utah Jazz UNDER 54.5 (SUPER)
Shout out to the Utah Jazz for being one of the few teams I got right last season, even though picking them to hit the over was one of the more trendy picks last year. But this year is different because the expectations for the Jazz have changed.
Utah doesn’t only come into this season with Western Conference Finals aspirations, they’ve been dubbed title contenders by high-ranking members of the basketball intelligentsia, such as ESPN’s Zach Lowe.
A trade for Mike Conley, a big money signing in Bojan Bogdanovic, as well as smart value signings like Ed Davis and Jeff Green are giving the smartest NBA minds a reason to believe. Rudy Gobert has been an elite defense unto himself for years and a win against Team USA in the FIBA World Cup has only fed into this hype.
And yet, I don’t see this team reaching 55 wins. Mike Conley had a bounce-back season in several ways last year and Donovan Mitchell should be inline for a bump coming off playing with team USA. But Conley just turned 32 and the time at which his contract becomes a full albatross may be here sooner than we anticipate.
In addition to that, their depth gives me pause and while their guards are great, they aren’t better than the backcourts of either Houston or Portland. Utah will be good, but I don’t think they will be 55 wins good. The West will just be too tough for more than one team to get over 55.
Portland Trail Blazers OVER 48.5 (SUPER)
I had to follow the Jazz with the Blazers. The basketball intelligentsia that so loves the Jazz is also very down on the Portland Trail Blazers. After an encouraging playoff run that saw them get to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in 19 years, since the days of Damon Stoudemire, Arvydas Sabonis and Rasheed Wallace, they were swept by a Golden State Warriors team without Kevin Durant.
But as was my rationale last year, I’m not going to let a bad result in the playoffs distract me from what has been a team that outperforms their expectations year after year in the regular season. And that’s nothing to say of the fact I think their elite guard play will be a major factor once they get to the playoffs.
The losses of Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu do hurt their perimeter defense and robbed them of some of their identity from the last four seasons. But Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum aren’t the lost does on defense they were earlier in their career. Both make fewer mistakes than they used to and the defense of both Hassan Whiteside and Zach Collins gives them plenty of power on the inside. While the concerns about the defense are valid, the NBA has proven to be an offense-first league. And offense is where Portland, who was already great (No. 2 in offensive rating last season), got better.
Adding Kent Bazemore in place of Evan Turner or even Harkless gives defenses a shooter they have to respect on the wing. In addition to Bazemore, Rodney Hood came back to the Blazers at a below-market contract and gives them added isolation and pick-and-roll creation, with a more efficient jump shot than Turner gave them. Veteran Anthony Tolliver also gives Terry Stotts the first true stretch-four he’s had in years. I didn’t even mention 20-year old phenom Anfernee Simons, who is expected to elevate the third guard spot on the Blazers to another level.
Although the Blazers lack size on the wing, they believe Hassan Whiteside is the right fit to help them make up for that on the inside. And surely, it’s a risky gamble. Although not as risky as some may make it seem.
For the past six years of the Terry Stotts era, the Blazers have employed a conservative pick-and-roll strategy that plays to Whiteside’s preferences of staying near the paint and close to the basket. However, the Blazers have contingency plans on hand with the ability to play Collins in smaller match-ups, as well as Lillard’s leadership to weather the storm.
To say nothing of their playoff chances, the additions added some much-needed offensive diversity while the defense can improve. The added offensive diversity should also lead to a potential All-Star season for CJ McCollum, who is fresh off of a solid season and a dominant Game 7 performance at Denver in last year’s playoffs.
This team is more talented than the one that won 53 games last year. Expecting them to win at least 49 games seems super reasonable to me.
Indiana Pacers OVER 47.5 (SUPER)
While Victor Oladipo’s eventual return date is up in the air, it’s hard for me to dislike anything that the Pacers did this offseason after finishing last season strong without their star. They were able to steal Malcolm Brogdon away from the Milwaukee Bucks and they made smart value pick-ups to improve their wing depth after the loss of Bojan Bogdanovic in free agency and the suspension to Tyreke Evans.
TJ Warren is an upgrade to Evans and they were given a few draft picks for him in exchange for nothing but cash. They also signed Jeremy Lamb, who has quietly become an above-average scorer in terms of points per shot over the last three seasons, according to Cleaning The Glass, and has become a more consistent source of free-throw attempts.
Although they won’t have Oladipo, the talent they added to join Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis is an encouraging mix. When Oladipo gets back, this team has the tools to be one of the best in the East.
After losing Oladipo, they still managed to win 48 games last season. Although Bogdanovic was their leading scorer and he’s now in Utah, the moves they made to fortify their wing depth should help them once again be strong playoff team in the East.
Detroit Pistons OVER 38.5 (Regular)
Blake Griffin isn’t in Los Angeles anymore. But even though he’s not around the same amount of cameras he used to be, the quality of play he is bringing is worthy of the spotlight. Enough so that even though I don’t really like the Pistons, I think they will do well enough to get at least 40 wins and sneak into the postseason.
Last season Griffin had an above average points per shot attempt rate for the first time since 2016, which was his first full campaign with Detroit. The full embrace of his 3-points hot and Dwane Casey letting him control the offense was Detroit’s best weapon, which resulted into an 8th seed.
Griffin got hurt at the end of last season, wearing down after carrying a major load. But I believe in the ability of the Pistons to improve. Luke Kennard finished in the 72nd percentile last season among guards in terms of points per shot attempt last season and if he maintains a similar position while getting a bigger role, that would help the Pistons greatly because the perimeter is where they lack the most.
To protect themselves from a Reggie Jackson injury, the Pistons bet on 2011 MVP Derrick Rose after Rose has a bounce-back season last year in Minnesota as a reserve. Although some might argue that’s not a much better insurance policy than Ish Smith, I believe enough in the star-coach combo of Casey and Griffin to help get this team to the playoffs.
Chicago Bulls OVER 33.5 (SUPER)
At one point this summer when I was watching the transactions of the NBA pop-up while drinking my morning coffee, I was struck with an odd feeling that I wasn’t familiar with before: I liked what the Chicago Bulls were doing.
And as I sit here writing my last entry to this year’s over-under column, I still believe in the big, dumb, idiotic Chicago Bulls. Tomas Satoransky was a solid pick-up and the same goes for Thaddeus Young, who can pair with Otto Porter to give the Bulls size and versatility at the wing spots. In addition to those two guys, the big man tandem of Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen is the type of front court of the future you hope for as willing defenders who don’t need post touches and can space the floor for your guards. However, injuries last year hurt their chances.
Aside from the health of their front court, a major question facing the Bulls is whether Zach LaVine can make the step from good stats-bad team guy to the leader of a team with playoff aspirations. My bet is that with the improvements on the front court since the Porter trade, he will figure out what’s best for this team to win.
The addition of draft pick Coby White and the return of Kris Dunn should bolster their backcourt. But I think the emergence of Satoransky, coupled with the talent of Chicago’s frontline big men, will help them break into the postseason sooner than many will expect. At the very least, they will win more than 33 games.
The Atlanta Hawks are the sexy pick among teams who were bad in the East last year that will make the playoffs, but for me, Chicago is a much more plausible alternative as a playoff newcomer given that they made better veteran acquisitions to compliment their young talent this summer than Atlanta did.
