Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Vikings.
Few teams in NFL history have ever won 13 games, cruised to a division title and simultaneously been more doubted than last year’s Vikings.
And the criticism was warranted. Despite going 13–4, Minnesota had a negative point differential and a 31st-ranked defense. Then the Vikings lost in the wild-card round at home to Daniel Jones and the Giants, ending what was one of the more improbable seasons in some time.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (left); Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports (center); Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY Network
The result of it all? Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell was fired, with former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores replacing him. The roster changed a bit, as well, with corner Byron Murphy Jr., defensive end Dean Lowry and edge rusher Marcus Davenport all brought in this offseason to jump-start the group. Furthermore, some of the aging veterans were left to leave, including corner Patrick Peterson, edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and linebacker Eric Kendricks.
All told, Minnesota will look far different, but that’s perhaps for the better. The Vikings are talented, but they have only one postseason win in the Kirk Cousins era. If they’re going to break through and enjoy January success, something needed to change.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Not extending Cousins or having a long-term plan
This may prove to be the correct decision by Minnesota, but it remains a risky one. Cousins turns 35 years old in August, and while nobody is clamoring for him to be given a four-year deal, keeping him around for a few more seasons is reasonable.
Cousins draws plenty of ire, but he’s been remarkably consistent. Over the past eight years, the quarterback has thrown for at least 4,000 yards seven times. He’s also topped 25 touchdown passes in all eight campaigns while making four Pro Bowl appearances.
With Nick Mullens as Cousins’s backup, Minnesota doesn’t have a long-term answer at the position. The latter is a free agent after this year, and while the Vikings could retain him, it won’t be cheap.
At some point, the front office either needs to extend Cousins at a respectable number or find his replacement in the draft while potentially playing a bridge option in 2024.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 2 to 5
The Vikings can’t do a ton of complaining when it comes to their schedule. After all, Minnesota doesn’t have any elongated trips or a gantlet of 2022 playoff teams at any point.
However, after opening with a should-be win against the Buccaneers, things are rough for the next month. Minnesota visits the Eagles in Week 2 (for the second straight year) before coming home to welcome in the Chargers. After that, it’s a battle in Carolina with rookie quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers, with the Chiefs coming to the Twin Cities to finish off the tough stretch.
If the Vikings can emerge 3–2 or better after five weeks, they’re in great shape.
Breakout player to watch: OT Christian Darrisaw
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Darrisaw has established himself as one of the league’s best tackles, but he could become a Pro Bowler in 2023 with better health.
In his two seasons with Minnesota, the former first-round pick has missed eight games. If Darrisaw can piece together a 17-game campaign, he’ll start being talked about in the tier only below men like Trent Williams of the 49ers and Lane Johnson of the Eagles.
Last year, Darrisaw committed only two penalties and allowed five sacks, earning a 90.3 grade from Pro Football Focus … this despite playing in front of the immobile Cousins.
Position of strength: Receiving targets
If there’s one thing we know about the Vikings, it’s their ability to move the ball through the air.
Minnesota has the league’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson, who through three seasons has already been named a first-team All-Pro and a three-time Pro Bowler, while earning Offensive Player of the Year honors. He’ll be flanked by first-round rookie Jordan Addison, who at USC caught 59 passes for 875 yards and eight touchdowns last season.
At tight end, veteran tight end T.J. Hockenson will have his first full season with the purple and gold. Last year, Hockenson accounted for 519 yards and three scores in 10 games.
Position of weakness: Cornerback
Although the Vikings signed Murphy in the offseason, there are still major questions when Minnesota is in coverage.
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah let veteran corner Peterson walk in free agency and released Cameron Dantzler, who signed with the Bills in early June. To replace them, Minnesota went with Akayleb Evans and Andrew Booth Jr., along with a pair of mid-round draft picks in Mekhi Blackmon and Jay Ward.
If the Vikings are going to repeat as division champs, they’ll need a few of their younger corners to step up, while Murphy proves himself to be a No. 1 boundary option.
X-factor: Brian Flores’s impact
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After working under Bill Belichick for 11 years in various roles with the Patriots, Flores got a headcoaching gig with the Dolphins, which lasted only two seasons despite a respectable 24–25 mark.
Now, following one year as linebackers coach with the Steelers, Flores has the defensive coordinator job in Minnesota. Taking over for Donatell, Flores is in a good position to improve the unit, but by how much? The Vikings need a defensive overhaul, and from a scheme standpoint that’ll happen immediately with Flores. But beyond shifting away from a ton of Cover 2 looks, can Flores make a quick impact?
Sleeper/fantasy pick: WR Jordan Addison
Addison landed in the best spot of any rookie wideout, as he’ll be the No. 2 behind Jefferson. And there will be plenty of targets for Addison to absorb after the team parted with Adam Thielen. The Vikings were also third among all offenses in pass percentage last season. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Cousins’s 28.5 passing touchdowns
Cousins has exceeded this number four of the past five seasons, including every season he has played with Jefferson. He’s in a contract year and has the benefit of throwing to the best wide receiver in the NFL. Barring injury, he should go over. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
