Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Cowboys.
When Dak Prescott delivered a dud against the 49ers in last year’s divisional round to give the Cowboys another quick postseason exit, it might have signaled the beginning of the end of an era in Dallas.
Prescott wasn’t shown the door for the poor performance, but the pressure is high for him to finally get the Cowboys over the hump, partly because he’s due for another deal. His current contract doesn’t have guaranteed money past this year, and his cap number will balloon to $59.45 million in 2024, according to Over the Cap.
It might be a make-or-break season for Prescott, but running back Ezekiel Elliott and tight end Dalton Schultz are already gone—neither got an extra year to make it work in Dallas. (Although, there’s a possibility of a reunion with Elliott because he remains a free agent). Tony Pollard is the new lead back after a breakout 2022 season, while tight ends Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker (a rookie) will look to replicate Schultz’s production.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports (center); Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports (left; right)
The team also parted with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who guided the Cowboys to four prolific statistical seasons as the play-caller, but ultimately did them no favors in the postseason.
With Moore gone, the pressure is high for coach Mike McCarthy, who holds a different philosophy than the now offensive coordinator of the Chargers. McCarthy also made the bold decision to take over as the offensive play-caller, something he hasn’t done since 2018 when he was the head coach of the Packers.
The Cowboys once again have a talented roster, but changes could occur next season at critical positions if they don’t at least reach the NFC title game for what would be the first time since 1995.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Trading for Cooks and Gilmore
Instead of splurging in free agency, the Cowboys traded for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, sending Day 3 draft picks to the Texans and Colts, respectively. It was a creative way of improving the roster without having to overpay for players on the open market and probably the necessary option with limited cap space due to Prescott’s hefty contract. (The Cowboys also kept in mind the looming contract extensions for Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb.) Although that approach was a smart move financially, Dallas is now banking on two players who might be past their primes. Gilmore proved last season with the Colts he still has plenty left to offer, but he’s heading into his age-33 season. Cooks is younger—he’ll turn 30 in September—but he’s coming off a down 2022 season and has dealt with many injuries in his career. The Cowboys need Cooks to be a standout No. 2 wideout to Lamb and for Gilmore to do the same for Diggs if they want to finally get past the divisional round.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 13 to 17
The Cowboys will have a brutal five-game stretch near the end of the regular season, starting with a home game vs. the Seahawks. They’ll then host the Eagles in Week 14 before back-to-back road games against the Bills and Dolphins. That’s three consecutive games against potential Super Bowl contenders, but the schedule doesn’t get any easier after that: Dallas will host a Week 17 game with the Lions, who are also receiving plenty of hype. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Seahawks and Lions are on the same level as the Eagles, Bills and Dolphins.
Breakout player to watch: Edge rusher Sam Williams
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
It’s tough to go with Williams here due to the depth at the position (more on that later). But given how impressive he was, playing limited snaps as a rookie, Williams has a strong chance of cracking the rotation if he continues to ascend in his second season. The 2022 second-round pick made impact plays (four sacks, 10 tackles for loss and nine quarterback hits) despite playing only 27% of the team’s defensive snaps last season. With the Cowboys having so many talented edge rushers, Williams will likely continue taking advantage of his matchups to possibly record more than 10 sacks in ’23.
Position of strength: Edge rusher
Williams is so buried on the depth chart because he plays behind the starting duo of Parsons, a two-time first-team All-Pro, and DeMarcus Lawrence, a three-time Pro Bowler. Also, Dorance Armstrong Jr. is a quality edge rusher with 8.5 sacks last season, and Dante Fowler Jr. continues to be a reliable playmaker. With Parsons moving full time to defensive end, rookie DeMarvion Overshown might take over the veteran’s former role of splitting time on the defensive line and at linebacker. The Cowboys could have a pass-rushing rotation that goes six deep on the edges.
Position of weakness: Interior defensive line
The Cowboys struggled with stopping the run last season, leading them to draft defensive tackle Mazi Smith in the first round for this year’s draft. Smith was known in college for defending the run, but the Cowboys haven’t had much luck with inexperienced players making an immediate impact on the interior of the defensive line: Osa Odighizuwa, a 2021 third-round pick, and Neville Gallimore, a ’20 third-round pick, have been inconsistent to start their careers.
X-factor: WR Michael Gallup
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys are counting on Lamb and Cooks to form one of the better receiving duos in the league, but they also need Gallup to finally deliver a complete season after a few down years. Gallup has flashed often in his first five seasons, but he tends to have long stretches of disappearing from the offense, and injuries over the past few years haven’t helped. If Gallup can return to what he did in 2019, with 66 catches for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns, Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense will be tough to stop this season.
Sleeper fantasy pick: TE Jake Ferguson
The Cowboys drafted Schoonmaker in the 2023 second round, but Ferguson is still the tight end to target on their roster. While a committee could emerge, we know Dallas likes to use a primary tight end on offense. Ferguson is the best of its trio of options. He’s a deep league flier. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on CeeDee Lamb’s 1100.5 receiving yards
Just as he did in each of his last two seasons, Lamb will hit this again. Entering his fourth season with the Cowboys, the wide receiver has the most experience and chemistry with Prescott. Especially with no Schultz on the roster, Cooks and Gallup won’t keep Lamb from exceeding this total. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
