The first weekend of last year’s NCAA tournament was upset-riddled madness. We had our first 16-1 upset in tournament history, and plenty of quality teams saw their championship hopes end early. While we might not see another 16-1 upset anytime soon, there will be upsets this year and picking upsets is no easy task. We’re here to help with these potential three upsets for your bracket.
No. 13 Northeastern over No. 4 Kansas
Bill Self hasn’t lost in the first round since 2006, but that impressive run could be in jeopardy against Northeastern. The Jayhawks haven’t looked like your typical Kansas team since big man Udoka Azubuike suffered a season-ending wrist injury in non-conference play. Kansas — 9-0 and ranked No. 1 at the time — has limped to the finish line and saw its streak of 14 straight Big 12 titles come to an end.
On the other side, Northeastern is exactly the kind of team that can give Kansas fits on the right day. The Huskies are the nation’s 14th-ranked 3-point shooting team while taking the 22nd most attempts. The Jayhawks struggle to defend the perimeter and don’t have the shooters to battle a 3-point onslaught. The Jayhawks’ best shooter, Lagerald Vick (46 percent from 3), left the team on leave and won’t return. There’s no other Kansas shooter who can take over a game. If Northeastern comes out hot, look for Kansas to go down.
The winner of No. 11 Belmont-Temple over No. 6 Maryland
If you’re filling out a bracket, it’s so easy to see those play-in matchups and automatically assume that the favorite will move on. I get it, especially if you’re filling out the bracket before the First Four in Dayton. But you should know that a First Four team has won a first round game in every year since the field expanded to 68. Last year, Syracuse kept that streak going.
While I think Belmont will ultimately face the Terps, I expect either team in that First Four matchup to move on to the Round of 32. Maryland is slumping with three losses in its past four and has virtually gotten no production from its bench in March. A First Four team is going to win a game, and Maryland is the most vulnerable No. 6 seed in the field.
No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin
It’s basically bracket rule No. 1 to have a 12-5 upset because, well, 12-5 upsets almost always happen. Last year, every 5 seed took care of business, but Wisconsin didn’t get lucky with this game against Oregon.
The Ducks have been playing their best basketball of the season, winning eight straight games and the Pac-12 tournament title. Oregon probably would have cruised through the Pac-12 in a down year had Bol Bol not suffered a season-ending injury, but the Ducks have rebounded admirably.
Plus, Wisconsin’s low-tempo offense won’t take the Ducks out of their comfort zone. Both teams are near the bottom of college basketball in possessions per game (Oregon at No. 305 and Wisconsin at No. 323). They’re comfortable playing Wisconsin’s game and have the talent to take down the Badgers.
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