The Houston Texans are moving on. After beating the Buffalo Bills 22-19 in an overtime thriller, they will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the divisional round at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Texans are underdogs. That should come as no surprise. The Chiefs are tough to play at home in the playoffs. They are coming off of a bye week that allowed them to rest up and haven’t lost a football game since Nov. 10. It also doesn’t hurt that they have Patrick Mahomes and a much-improved defense.
However, the Texans aren’t a team to count out in the race for the Super Bowl. They beat the Chiefs 31-24 in Week 6. Here are three reasons why they will advance to the AFC Championship game.
1. A stocked cupboard of weapons
The Chiefs’ defense is much-improved. The additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu appear to be paying dividends when it matters most. However, the Texans’ offense has a fighting chance to take down a surging defense.
In Houston’s Week 6 victory in Kansas City, they saw DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller play, but no Kenny Stills, as he was dealing with a hamstring. On Sunday, all three are expected to play, as Fuller should come back after missing the last two games due to a groin.
The Texans’ full wide receiver corps could give the Chiefs’ defense problems. Houston’s offense is a different monster with Fuller on the field. The Texans are 7-2 when he starts and finishes games. The Chiefs saw that in Week 6, even if he dropped three touchdowns. Now, they will have to defend an offense with Fuller and a reliable speedster in Stills.
2. The Carlos Hyde revenge game 2.0
When he signed with Kansas City in the offseason, Carlos Hyde thought he’d be a primary contributor in the Chiefs’ backfield. However, it didn’t quite work out like that. Instead, the Chiefs traded him to the Texans for a backup offensive guard.
Hyde visited the Chiefs in Week 6. In the Texans’ win, he marked his revenge, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown on 26 attempts. Expect him to go back-to-back in the revenge game category.
The Chiefs’ rush defense is nothing to write home about. According to Football Outsiders, they are 29th in the NFL in DVOA (4.1%). Their 128.2 yards per game allowed in the regular season sat at 26th in the NFL. For as good as the Chiefs’ defense has been as of late, they still struggle to defend the run.
Expect Bill O’Brien to call up his fair share of run plays against a leaky run defense. Hyde will be the benefactor of those runs. He will run angry in his second career postseason game against a team that discarded him.
3. Momentum
Momentum is such a cop out. There could be something far more advanced here. It’s obvious. Too obvious. However, sometimes, obvious is the right answer.
Whereas the Chiefs watched the wild card weekend home, enjoying a bye week, the Texans participated. They enjoyed a momentous victory, storming back to beat the Bills while down 16-0 with six minutes left in the third quarter. In doing so, they watched the home crowd get loud, J.J. Watt come back to his old form and Deshaun Watson do, well, Deshaun Watson things.
The Texans have momentum. The Chiefs are cold, even if they ended the regular season the right way. Though Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking, the Texans will be too. It’s hard not to feel as if the victory over the Bills didn’t bring Houston a new sense of energy.
Watson and Watt will upset the Chiefs. They are hot. They feel like nothing can stop them. Perhaps nothing will.
