A U.S.-China rare earth truce is technically in effect, but China is still throttling shipments, shortages persist, and Trump left Beijing last week without a confirmed extension of the agreement, which expires in November 2026.
For investors watching the domestic rare earth sector, the fine print matters more than the headline.
China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and processes between 85% and 90% of the global supply. Those minerals, which are used in permanent magnets for AI data centers, electric vehicles, and military hardware, don't have a quick Western replacement. The truce bought time, but the underlying problem is unchanged.
That's the setup Sean Brodrick of Weiss Ratings has been watching closely. His thesis: even if China eases supply, the U.S. government has committed to maintaining a price floor for critical domestic producers, meaning the economics don't collapse just because Chinese exports resume.
Washington has made its strategic priorities clear, and it's backing them with capital. And, as Brodrick notes, China has shown a willingness to reimpose restrictions when it suits them. The truce clock is already running.
The Minerals Powering the New Economy
Rare earth elements aren't a niche industrial input; they're embedded in the infrastructure of the modern economy.
The four key magnetic rare earths—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—are essential for the permanent magnets that run everything from EV motors to AI data center equipment.
The heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, are particularly critical because they protect magnets from heat-induced degradation, making them indispensable in high-performance applications.
China's export control playbook has specifically targeted these materials. Restrictions introduced in late 2024 and expanded through 2025 covered gallium, germanium, antimony, and several rare earth elements. The November 2025 truce paused those controls, but customs data shows Beijing is still limiting shipments in practice, keeping supply tight and prices elevated.
For U.S. companies that depend on these materials for defense systems, semiconductors, and clean energy hardware, a pause that doesn't fully function isn't a supply chain strategy. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) CEO Tim Cook has already responded, striking a supply agreement with MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) to source domestically produced rare earths—a signal of how seriously major U.S. companies are taking the risk.
Critical Metals Corp.: The Greenland Play
Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) is developing the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, one of the largest rare earth deposits on the planet.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued a letter of interest for a potential $120 million funding package, and the company has secured approval to increase its ownership stake in Tanbreez to 92.5%.
What gives Critical Metals its strategic weight is the nature of the deposit.
Tanbreez is a heavy rare-earth resource, a specific category China has most aggressively restricted. That's not a coincidence. For U.S. defense independence, projects like Tanbreez aren't optional. Brodrick sees CRML as having significant room to run from current levels, noting it remains well below the highs it hit when U.S.-China tensions peaked.
Critical Metals is still in development and pre-revenue. The timeline to production is measured in years, not quarters. Government support helps reduce financing risk, but substantial execution and permitting hurdles remain.
USA Rare Earth: Mine to Magnet
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is building something rarer than the minerals it mines: a fully domestic, vertically integrated rare earth supply chain.
The company controls Round Top Mountain in West Texas, which hosts at least 15 of the 17 rare-earth elements, and a commercial magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has backed the company with a nonbinding letter of intent worth $1.6 billion, including $277 million in CHIPS Act funding.
USAR has been one of the more volatile names in the sector, swinging sharply on each policy headline. Brodrick's view on that volatility: it's an entry point, not a reason to stay away. The government price floor means the long-term economics aren't purely at the mercy of whatever China decides this November.
For investors who can tolerate the swings, the mine-to-magnet vertical is a structural advantage in a sector where most companies control only one piece of the chain.
When supply dips on positive China headlines, Brodrick's instinct is to buy because the restrictions can always come back, and the domestic buildout has to happen regardless.
American Rare Earths: The Early-Stage Wild Card
The most speculative of the three is American Rare Earths Ltd. (OTCMKTS: ARRNF). Despite the name, it's an Australian company operating in the U.S., developing the Halleck Creek project in Wyoming, which the company describes as the largest rare earth resource in North America.
Halleck Creek contains the four key magnetic rare earth elements and carries a notable advantage over many global deposits: unusually low levels of radioactive elements, which reduces regulatory hurdles to permitting and operations. The U.S. government has supported the company's technical development through R&D partnerships, and that work has produced processing breakthroughs that the company says lower operating costs. A pre-feasibility study is expected, followed by a pilot phase that would ship mined material to Saskatchewan for refined oxide production. American Rare Earths has also stated plans to uplist to the Nasdaq.
This one carries the most risk of the three. There is no direct U.S. government equity stake yet, and the stock trades at a fraction of a dollar on the OTC market. Brodrick is candid about that: the odds favor this team, this project, and this location—Wyoming is among the most mining-friendly states in the country—but nothing is guaranteed.
The Longer View
A truce that expires in November 2026—and that China is already working around in practice—is not a supply chain solution. China has a demonstrated willingness to use export restrictions as economic leverage, and nothing in the current agreement changes that structural reality. The question isn't whether domestic rare earth development matters—Washington has already answered that with significant capital commitments. The question is: which projects have the assets, the management, and the staying power to see them through?
Brodrick's framework is straightforward: volatility in this sector is noise. The signal is the long-term buildout of a domestic rare earth industry that the U.S. cannot afford to leave undone. Pullbacks are the entry. What happens in any one trade negotiation is a chapter. The book is much longer.
The article "3 Rare Earth Stocks That Win No Matter What China Does Next" first appeared on MarketBeat.
