Being a first-round draft pick is something that all prospects dream about, but inevitably, some players who are selected atop the NFL draft probably shouldn’t be. The Kansas City Chiefs will have plenty of options to choose from at pick No. 31, should they choose to stay there. Some of those options, however, simply might not be the best value and use for a first-round draft choice.
Below we’ll take a look at three options that the Chiefs should probably best avoid in the first round:
Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs
The running back position has become severely devalued in the NFL and only prospects deemed a generational talent (Texas RB Bijan Robinson for instance) seem to be worthy of going in the first round anymore. I think Gibbs is a talented prospect and has the potential to be one of the top receiving backs in this class, but is that enough to make him a first-round draft pick? As much as I enjoy Gibbs as a prospect, it’s hard not to look back at the 2020 NFL draft and the selection of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That pick hasn’t panned out for Kansas City relative to first-round value. In this case, I think the team can afford to wait to draft both the position and the player.
Michigan DT Mazi Smith
The Chiefs need to invest long-term in the defensive tackle position, but Smith scares me a bit. From an athletic standpoint, Smith compares favorably to Dontari Poe. He had 10 fewer repetitions on the bench press (34 to Poe’s 44), but had better vertical (29.5) and broad jumps (107 inches). If the Chiefs selected him in the first round would be highly reminiscent of their selection of Poe too. They’re both incredibly talented athletes, but the on-field production didn’t match. That’s even more the case with Smith than it was with Poe, as he only recorded a half-sack in his three-year Michigan career. There’s also the fact that Smith caught a felony weapons charge earlier this month, which is another reason teams could be dissuaded.
Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave
The tight end position is one of the most loaded groups in the 2023 NFL draft. Musgrave has sometimes been touted as a first-round draft pick, but there might be more projection with the Oregon State tight end than with any other player in this draft class. Musgrave doesn’t have a lot of production during his college with just 47 catches for 633 yards and two scores across four seasons. A knee injury shortened his 2022 season with Oregon State and I find it hard to believe that teams would value him in the first round with the injury situation and the lack of college production.
