The Baltimore Ravens should have their draft board all set up and ready to roll. Final tweaks will happen, but it’s the quiet before the storm that is the 2019 NFL draft.
While Baltimore is one of the better teams in the league and historically done well when drafting, there are pitfalls to be cautious about. If things don’t go the Ravens’ way, it’s likely to be one of these few nightmare scenarios.
Early run on wide receivers
The Ravens desperately need help at wide receiver. It’s the same thing we’ve been saying for years now, and it still remains their biggest need in 2019. The positive is this draft has a wealth of pass-catching talent for Baltimore to tap into. The problem is there aren’t any transcendent players and the bulk of the talent is second tier.
With no second-round picks after trading up last year to select quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are in a tough spot. The best value at wide receiver in this draft is in the second round, though it could fall into the third depending on how things shake out. Which is where this nightmare fuel comes from.
If teams start reaching for wide receivers in the first round, the Ravens could either be forced to do the same with their first-round pick. Even worse would be not grabbing a wide receiver there and having a much shallower pool of talent in the third round when they next pick.
If this plays out, there’s a real possibility Baltimore doesn’t find an immediate starter at wide receiver in this draft. It’s a scenario that would likely force their hand in the second wave of free agency, something that could be costly.
Ravens can’t find trade partner
The ideal scenario for the Ravens would be trading out of the first round completely and picking up two second-round selections. The best value at wide receiver, interior offensive line and pass rusher can likely be found there. However, as I’ve mentioned before, Baltimore might not have much of a choice.
With few teams having two second-round selections and few quarterbacks with first-round grades, there might not be much demand for the Ravens’ No. 22 selection. This could become a situation where Baltimore either can’t find a trade partner at all or the trade value for the No. 22 pick is dramatically lowered where it doesn’t make sense to trade back.
While not being able to trade out of the first round might seem like a rather small problem, the Ravens could fill a number of big holes if they can. For what Baltimore has going on right now, not trading back could be another nightmare scenario.
Relying too much on analytics
New Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta has talked about using more analytics to help make decisions. Though this is the future of the league, there’s the possibility of relying too much on what the spreadsheets say.
Statistics and analytics are great to help clarify things that might seem to be the same on paper. When used as a part of an overall strategy they could be the difference maker to hitting on more draft picks than before. But just as we often see with the NFL scouting combine, numbers can also skew reality quite a bit.
Every year you see at least one team chase one of the top combine performers in spite of game film that should draw red flags. The opposite also happens, as was the case for Orlando Brown Jr. last year in his drop to Baltimore in the third round.
While the Ravens have usually avoided this pitfall thanks to decades of experience and continuity, things are changing in Baltimore. The Ravens could oversteer in an attempt to improve an already historically successful strategy and actually get worse in the process.
