Take everything in the preseason with a grain of salt. That’s the rule. But for bettors, enough of those little grains can lead to a pile of cash.
Despite several teams opting to sit their starters in the first week of preseason action, there were more than enough of those micro-observations to help guide futures betting.
Narrowing this list down to three was difficult because I’d rather see more than a few series of first-team reps before making definitive statements. But there are some things I feel better about than others right now when it comes to my money. These are my takeaways.
Odds from Tipico Sportsbook
Aidan Hutchinson won't disappoint
This isn’t exactly a news flash, because he is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year with +450 odds, but Hutchinson showed exactly why he’s a good bet in his first preseason action. The No. 2 overall pick made his presence felt early and often in limited action, recording two tackles, including one for a loss.
Additionally, Jared Goff and Detroit’s first-team offense looked good, which could be another good sign for Hutchinson and the defense — if the offense can get them some leads and force opponents into more passing situations.
No discipline in Dallas
I don’t want to overblow this, because the Cowboys won the NFC East last season while leading the league in penalties. But it is a concerning that they came out and committed 17 penalties against the Broncos in their first preseason action — and were crushed for it.
The Cowboys led the NFL in penalties last season. They led league again in penalties this weekend. A whopping 17 in preseason game vs. Broncos.
Next closest:
12—Patriots
11—Bills, Bengals, Browns, Texans
9—Colts, Chargers24 teams drew fewer than half the penalties Cowboys did.
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) August 15, 2022
In a season where Dallas is expected by some to take a step back while the Eagles are expected to be better, the difference in who wins this division could be one or two games, and penalties can absolutely make a difference in that margin. Ultimately, it’s not the only reason I favor the Eagles at +180 over Dallas at +115. But it’s certainly a factor.
Steelers > Browns?
I’m fading the Browns across the board this season, and now I’m wondering if I should bite on their +425 odds to finish last in the AFC North. At one point this offseason, their odds were among the best to win the division. And though they’ve slipped a bit after Deshuan Watson’s suspension, they’re still favored to finish ahead of the Steelers. But Watson was rusty in his first action in more than a year, and he’ll miss even more time this season.
Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett showed flashes in his preseason debut. Mitch Trubisky was solid too. I like the Ravens and Bengals as the top two teams in the division, but Pittsburgh’s +350 odds to finish third look really good.
