The revenge game is here with the Raiders traveling to London to face off with former Raider, Khalil Mack, and the Chicago Bears. The game is technically a home game for the Raiders, but it is still another tough matchup that isn’t at the Oakland Coliseum.
The Bears have a dominant defense that is third in offensive DVOA, according to the football outsiders. However, the Raiders are the best offense they have faced with an offensive EPA ranking of eight coming into the game.
The Raiders are a team attempting to find themselves on defense as well with their best showing since Week 1 last week against the Colts. Now they got backup quarterback Chase Daniels who was efficient the previous week but not explosive and creates an exciting matchup.
It will be another tough game for the Raiders on the road. Here are the three keys to victory against the Bears.
1. Pass on first down
Yes, with this pass rush, it seems crazy, but hear me out. The Raiders have been extremely predictable on offense, and it got them in serious trouble against the Vikings. With the Bears being the same quality defense or even better, the Raiders have to catch the offense off guard by passing on first down heavily.
The Raiders last week ran the ball on 68% of their first downs. On the season, they run 56% of the time on first down. Jon Gruden has to switch this tendency up to catch the Bears off guard.
With them emphasizing the quick passing game, they can create manageable second downs that can help avoid third down all together against this vicious pass rush. If the Raiders can execute this to perfection, they can steal one out in London when everyone expects them to be dominated.
2. Force 3rd and long
Chase Daniels has plenty of starts in the NFL for us to know who he is as a passer. The former Missouri Tiger has been a career backup for a reason and does not scare anyone throwing downfield. The Raiders have to keep the Bears with third and long and force Daniels to make throws past the sticks.
According to NFL Next Gen stats, Daniels finished with a -1.7 air yards to the sticks. What this means is he is prone to throw the ball the short of the first down marker on third down and is not very aggressive in the passing game.
The Raiders have to tackle well and avoid letting players like Tariq Cohen break tackles in the open field, helping Daniels out on check downs. If the Raiders allow yards after the catch to Daniels short throws, it will be a long day for the defense.
3. QB Derek Carr
Hate to put all the pressure on one player, but this is a game where he can make a statement. The Raiders offense needs Carr to be efficient and move the football against the Bears. He has to rise to the competition for them to steal this game.
Carr has been underrated this year in certain metrics. He is 11th in the NFL in completion percentage over expected and is the seventh-ranked quarterback by Pro Football Focus.
It hasn’t been explosive, but he has been consistent at moving the football and avoiding awful mistakes in the passing game. He is also having his best season under pressure with a rating of 102.4, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
It is a considerable upgrade after throwing eight out of his 10 interceptions under pressure a season ago. Carr is a better quarterback this year for sure, but he has to even transcend his good start to the beat the Bears.
