Oakland Raiders are back at home once again this time on national TV for Thursday night football. Coming into Oakland is the 4-5 Los Angeles Chargers who are coming off a massive upset against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday.
The buzz around the Chargers making a playoff run is back again with the team healthy and winning two in a row. The pass rush terrorized Aaron Rodgers all game and allowed a measly 3.8 yards per play against the packers.
However, this might have been just a blip on the radar since they are 17th in yards per play on the season averaging 5.6. The Raiders will be the best offense they have faced all season besides the Texans.
The Chargers offensively have the potential Hall of Famer Phillip Rivers leading the way, which is having his usual steady season. Rivers is 15th in total QBR at 53.3 and is ranked 8th in PFF grades with a min of 100 dropbacks.
Melvin Gordon looked like he returned to form last week, and they still have Austin Ekeler, who is dynamic out of the backfield and will test the Raiders linebackers. The Chargers will be able to move the ball on the defense.
How can the raiders pull out the win? Let’s look at the three keys to victory for the Raiders against Chargers.
1. Stop RB Austin Ekeler
The Raiders’ biggest weakness on the whole team is linebackers in coverage. The Raiders linebackers are always picked on by opposing offenses leading to huge plays and touchdowns. This week will not be any different with the leader of receptions by a running back coming into town by the name Austin Ekeler.
Ekeler has 55 receptions on the season with 530 yards, which leads all running backs as well. Ekeler is elusive in the open field and has been an outlet for the Chargers all season, turning check-downs into first downs. According to PFF, he leads the league in avoided tackles on passing plays with 16.
Raiders fans should expect a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler, and he might be the primary target for the Chargers all game. The linebacking corps will have to be great tacklers, and the corners plus the safeties have to show up as well. If they don’t, it could be an excellent day for Ekeler’s fantasy owners.
2. Attack the Cover 3 with Darren Waller
Darren Waller took the league by storm with his hot start but has slowed down the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, this week will be different facing a primarily cover 3 football team allowing him free releases and freedom up the seams.
The Chargers’ stats against tight ends have been decent during the season, but the only team with good tight ends they faced was the Texans. The Texans tight end group combined for eight receptions and 122 yards and were able to generate significant plays against this Chargers cover 3 defense.
All of these signals for a big day for Waller, who is due after two games where his production has slowed down. The defensive scheme doesn’t allow for many double teams, and he will be able to find holes in the defense on sail concepts or flood concepts from the tight end position. It could be a huge bounce-back game for Waller.
3. Keep Derek Carr Clean
The primary key to victory in this game is too keep Derek Carr clean and time in the pocket. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, and the importance of not letting them wreck the game will help the Raiders secure a win at home.
According to PFF, the dynamic duo combined for 11 total pressures last week and three sacks with Ingram returning to the lineup. Ingram abused Kolton Miller all of last season, and Miller will be seeking redemption, but the health of Trent Brown is also a concern. Bosa against David Sharpe will not go well for this offense, and the Raiders will struggle to convert third downs.
However, if the Raiders can protect Carr, he will have time to dissect Gus Bradley’s simplistic cover 3 defense. Having time in the pocket against a zone is a killer for the defense because the quarterback and his receivers can find holes in the zone coverage.
If the Raiders can keep Carr clean all game, this might get away from the Chargers pretty quickly.
